Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Monday, June 22, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grant Holmes. The righty is running at .058 SB/PA against righties this year — and .065 over the last two weeks, a high-volume bat that turns into a stolen base in about 4% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 4 career PA against Grant Holmes, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- David Hamilton (MIL) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: an elite bat at .053.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (100) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a high-volume bat at .042, hot bat.
- Samad Taylor (SD) (90) vs RHP Grant Holmes: an elite bat at .051, hot bat.
- Trea Turner (PHI) (84) vs LHP Foster Griffin: a high-volume bat at .043.
- Luisangel Acuña (CWS) (83) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a high-volume bat at .042.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) (82) vs RHP Gavin Williams: a high-volume bat at .030.
- Stuart Fairchild (CLE) (79) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a high-volume bat at .041, due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- David Hamilton (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .082 against righties this year.
- Trea Turner (PHI) — righty bat vs LHP, .091 against lefties this year.
- Sam Antonacci (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .050 against righties this year.
- Stuart Fairchild (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .105 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
Where the running game runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% running-game park). Top bat there: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) at 74.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 stolen bases matchups landed at least one stolen base. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 0 stolen bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.