Best MLB Stolen Bases Matchups — Monday, June 29, 2026
Top stolen bases spot: Jazz Chisholm Jr.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Casey Mize. The lefty is running at .105 SB/PA against righties this year — and .240 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a stolen base in about 9% of his trips. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Casey Mize too — .364 across 11 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (59) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a high-volume bat at .034, hot bat.
- Jackson Merrill (SD) (59) vs LHP Shota Imanaga: an elite bat at .059.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (54) vs RHP Zebby Matthews: a high-volume bat at .038, hot bat.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (51) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a high-volume bat at .030.
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) (49) vs RHP Casey Mize: an elite bat at .045, due to bounce back.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (48) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a high-volume bat at .038.
- Otto Lopez (MIA) (48) vs RHP the starter: a high-volume bat at .037, hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .105 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .070 against lefties this year.
- Jasson Domínguez (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .064 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .026 against righties this year.
- Henry Bolte (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .063 against lefties this year.
Where the running game runs today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% running-game park). Top bat there: Otto Lopez (MIA) at 48.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these stolen bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's stolen bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.