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Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsMonday, March 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Monday, March 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, March 30, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our strikeout over/under, against 75% on the season.

Top 3
1/333%
season 75%
Top 5
2/540%
season 62%
Full slate
15/3050%
season 56%

Play of the Day: Kris Bubic , Parker Messick

Top call Edward Cabrera came through. Chase Burns didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 50% ratea -16% return.

Δ1.7Kris BubicFinal MIN @ KCwe project 6.2 K vs the 4.5 lineOver 4.51u-132
Δ1.6Parker MessickFinal CLE @ LADwe project 5.1 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51u-155

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.8% K / BF

vs LHB30.4%
vs RHB31.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.7%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)26.2%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)21.9%3.0
5. Billy Cook (R)31.9%3.0
6. Jared Triolo (R)21.1%2.0
7. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.8%2.0
8. Nick Gonzales (R)21.6%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+128-167
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+121-155
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+118-158
MBMyBookie+121-168

We project 7.7 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.0%
vs RHB28.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)21.4%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)21.9%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)20.4%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)26.6%3.0
5. Yoán Moncada (L)20.9%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)20.3%2.0
7. Josh Lowe (L)27.0%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.4%2.0
9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-135+106
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-138+104
MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Edward Cabrera's full player page →
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 6.2 K, but the book line is 4.5 — so the play is Over 4.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 50% ratea -16% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB26.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Outman (L)34.3%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)22.5%3.0
3. Luke Keaschall (R)21.0%3.0
4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.3%3.0
5. Matt Wallner (L)22.9%3.0
6. Josh Bell (R)22.8%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (R)21.0%2.0
8. Royce Lewis (R)20.3%2.0
9. Brooks Lee (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-167+128
BRBetRivers-159+120
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-163+128
FANFanatics-160+120
FDFanDuel-132+100
MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 6.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kris Bubic's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)24.4%3.0
2. Drake Baldwin (L)19.8%3.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)18.4%3.0
4. Matt Olson (L)25.6%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)20.3%3.0
6. Mike Yastrzemski (L)22.2%2.0
7. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.3%2.0
8. Jonah Heim (R)20.4%2.0
9. Michael Harris II (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+113-147
BRBetRivers+116-155
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+109-139
FDFanDuel+116-154
MBMyBookie+127-178

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.4%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)20.3%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)21.0%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)23.7%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.7%3.0
6. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.0%2.0
7. Dillon Dingler (R)22.2%2.0
8. Parker Meadows (L)23.5%2.0
9. Javier Báez (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BRBetRivers-180+133
BOVBovada-180+135
FDFanDuel-172+126

We project 5.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Soroka's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)21.6%3.0
2. Aaron Judge (R)28.3%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)21.1%3.0
4. Ben Rice (L)22.1%3.0
5. Randal Grichuk (R)18.0%3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.6%2.0
7. Amed Rosario (R)22.4%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)21.7%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-122-106
BRBetRivers-134+100
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-122-105
FDFanDuel-128-104
MBMyBookie-125-110

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. TJ Friedl (L)24.7%3.0
2. Matt McLain (R)21.2%3.0
3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.5%3.0
4. Dane Myers (R)22.3%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)24.0%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)23.3%2.0
7. Will Benson (L)25.8%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.2%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+122-159
BRBetRivers+133-180
DKDraftKings+123-158
MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.3%3.0
3. Corey Seager (L)22.1%3.0
4. Jake Burger (R)26.8%3.0
5. Andrew McCutchen (R)21.4%3.0
6. Josh Smith (L)19.7%2.0
7. Josh Jung (R)24.5%2.0
8. Evan Carter (L)20.2%2.0
9. Kyle Higashioka (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-122-106
BRBetRivers-115-115
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-122-105
FDFanDuel-112-118
MBMyBookie-125-110

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Bassitt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.2%3.0
2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.9%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)21.0%3.0
4. Jackson Merrill (L)20.3%3.0
5. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.9%3.0
6. Miguel Andujar (R)21.4%2.0
7. Ramón Laureano (R)22.6%2.0
8. Nick Castellanos (R)21.9%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+109-140
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+110-146
MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Landen Roupp's full player page →
★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.1 K, but the book line is 3.5 — so the play is Over 3.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 50% ratea -16% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0
2. Kyle Tucker (L)23.0%3.0
3. Mookie Betts (R)19.1%3.0
4. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.1%3.0
5. Freddie Freeman (L)20.8%3.0
6. Andy Pages (R)21.4%2.0
7. Max Muncy (L)27.0%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)19.5%2.0
9. Will Smith (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BRBetRivers-182+135
BOVBovada-160+120
FDFanDuel-174+128

We project 5.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brenton Doyle (R)22.4%3.0
2. Brett Sullivan (L)21.4%3.0
3. Ryan Ritter (R)24.8%3.0
4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.7%3.0
5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.9%3.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)23.6%2.0
7. Jordan Beck (R)22.8%2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R)22.7%2.0
9. Braxton Fulford (R)29.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-129-104
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-143+112
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-128-104
MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cody Ponce's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brendan Donovan (L)20.8%3.0
2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.6%3.0
3. Julio Rodríguez (R)24.2%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%3.0
5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.7%3.0
6. Mitch Garver (R)22.4%2.0
7. Victor Robles (R)20.1%2.0
8. Leo Rivas (R)21.2%2.0
9. Cole Young (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+118-154
BRBetRivers+125-167
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+113-144
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+124-166
MBMyBookie+112-156

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)20.3%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)20.2%3.0
3. Nick Allen (R)18.8%3.0
4. Carlos Correa (R)20.5%3.0
5. Christian Walker (R)22.4%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)23.5%2.0
7. Jake Meyers (R)21.8%2.0
8. Yainer Diaz (R)22.4%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+102-132
BRBetRivers-108-122
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings-106-120
FANFanatics-105-125
FDFanDuel+104-138
MBMyBookie-102-135

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ranger Suarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Busch (L)22.2%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.7%3.0
3. Ian Happ (L)26.6%3.0
4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.1%3.0
5. Nico Hoerner (R)17.7%3.0
6. Carson Kelly (R)20.4%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.7%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.4%2.0
9. Matt Shaw (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+104-133
FDFanDuel+102-136
MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryan Johnson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Kurtz (L)27.8%3.0
2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.3%3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.6%3.0
4. Brent Rooker (R)29.0%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)21.6%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)22.7%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)29.1%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)22.0%2.0
9. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-143+108
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-155+121
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-144+108
MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)21.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.8%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)17.6%3.0
5. Adolis García (R)23.7%3.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.6%2.0
7. Otto Kemp (R)24.1%2.0
8. Brandon Marsh (L)28.0%2.0
9. Rafael Marchán (R)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers+112-148
BOVBovada+100-130
DKDraftKings+102-130
FDFanDuel+116-154
MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)22.6%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.5%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0
4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.6%3.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.1%3.0
6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)25.0%2.0
7. Coby Mayo (R)21.9%2.0
8. Ryan Mountcastle (R)21.7%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-167+128
BRBetRivers-148+112
BOVBovada-180+135
DKDraftKings-154+120
FANFanatics-160+120
FDFanDuel-154+116
MBMyBookie-168+121

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jack Leiter's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB19.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Francisco Lindor (L)21.0%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)20.7%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)24.9%3.0
4. Jorge Polanco (L)20.0%3.0
5. Brett Baty (L)24.3%3.0
6. Luis Robert Jr. (R)21.7%2.0
7. Marcus Semien (R)21.6%2.0
8. Carson Benge (L)23.7%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-122-106
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-117-109
FDFanDuel-122-108
MBMyBookie-125-110

We project 4.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)19.3%3.0
2. Cedric Mullins (L)21.9%3.0
3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.1%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)19.6%3.0
5. Ben Williamson (R)20.0%3.0
6. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.9%2.0
7. Nick Fortes (R)19.6%2.0
8. Chandler Simpson (L)19.0%2.0
9. Carson Williams (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-147+113
BRBetRivers-148+112
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-144+113
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-152+116
MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.5%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)24.9%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)21.3%3.0
3. Austin Hays (R)23.5%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.1%3.0
5. Lenyn Sosa (R)22.7%3.0
6. Derek Hill (R)25.0%2.0
7. Everson Pereira (R)25.8%2.0
8. Edgar Quero (L)23.5%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-147+114
BRBetRivers-143+108
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-143+112
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-136+102
MBMyBookie-153+111

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Chris Paddack's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.0%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.6%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)19.1%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)20.5%3.0
5. Lane Thomas (R)24.7%3.0
6. Jonathan India (R)21.6%2.0
7. Jac Caglianone (L)22.8%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)22.6%2.0
9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-109-119
BRBetRivers-114-117
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-116-110
FDFanDuel-112-118
MBMyBookie-113-123

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Simeon Woods Richardson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Roman Anthony (L)23.9%3.0
2. Trevor Story (R)27.5%3.0
3. Jarren Duran (L)21.2%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)24.5%3.0
5. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.4%3.0
6. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)16.7%2.0
7. Marcelo Mayer (L)25.8%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.6%2.0
9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-125-106
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-126-101
FDFanDuel-130-102
MBMyBookie-127-109

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Lance McCullers Jr.'s full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.0%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.7%3.0
4. Masyn Winn (R)22.2%3.0
5. Nolan Gorman (L)24.7%3.0
6. Jordan Walker (R)22.5%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)21.7%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)21.4%2.0
9. Victor Scott II (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-124-107
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-117-109
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-132+100
MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Clay Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)20.7%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.8%3.0
3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)20.6%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.4%3.0
5. Nolan Arenado (R)24.1%3.0
6. Alek Thomas (L)21.4%2.0
7. Carlos Santana (L)22.6%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)13.1%2.0
9. Jordan Lawlar (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-132+102
BRBetRivers-124-107
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-139+109
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-136+102
MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Justin Verlander's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Steven Kwan (L)17.6%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)26.2%3.0
3. José Ramírez (L)20.8%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)24.0%3.0
5. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.1%3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.8%2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R)26.7%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)26.3%2.0
9. Angel Martínez (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-145+112
BRBetRivers-155+116
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-147+115
FANFanatics-140+105
FDFanDuel-154+116
MBMyBookie-148+107

We project 4.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Brice Turang (L)21.3%3.0
2. William Contreras (R)19.5%3.0
3. Christian Yelich (L)21.1%3.0
4. Luis Rengifo (L)19.8%3.0
5. Gary Sánchez (R)23.9%3.0
6. Sal Frelick (L)20.9%2.0
7. Garrett Mitchell (L)23.5%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)20.3%2.0
9. Blake Perkins (L)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-164+125
BRBetRivers-155+116
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-165+129
FDFanDuel-174+130
MBMyBookie-165+119

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.5%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jakob Marsee (L)25.3%3.0
2. Xavier Edwards (L)19.6%3.0
3. Agustín Ramírez (R)20.3%3.0
4. Liam Hicks (L)18.7%3.0
5. Otto Lopez (R)19.8%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)22.3%2.0
7. Connor Norby (R)23.3%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)20.8%2.0
9. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-125-102
FDFanDuel-114-114
MBMyBookie-128-107

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB17.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willy Adames (R)24.7%3.0
2. Rafael Devers (L)25.1%3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R)25.1%3.0
4. Luis Arraez (L)17.8%3.0
5. Matt Chapman (R)22.1%3.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.1%2.0
7. Harrison Bader (R)22.9%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)21.6%2.0
9. Casey Schmitt (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-132+100
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-139+109
FDFanDuel-136+102
MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walker Buehler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.1% K / BF

vs LHB16.1%
vs RHB16.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)22.7%3.0
2. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.3%3.0
3. Davis Schneider (R)27.7%3.0
4. Addison Barger (L)23.6%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)18.9%3.0
6. Nathan Lukes (L)19.1%2.0
7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)24.6%2.0
8. Ernie Clement (R)18.1%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-172+131
BRBetRivers-190+140
BOVBovada-170+130
DKDraftKings-169+132
FDFanDuel-172+128
MBMyBookie-173+124

We project 3.8 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.4%
vs RHB16.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)25.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.4%3.0
3. Brady House (R)25.7%3.0
4. Daylen Lile (L)21.1%3.0
5. CJ Abrams (L)20.5%3.0
6. Drew Millas (L)21.0%2.0
7. José Tena (L)21.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.8%2.0
9. Joey Wiemer (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+118-154
BRBetRivers+114-152
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+116-148
FANFanatics+110-145
FDFanDuel+116-154
MBMyBookie+143-203

We project 3.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Taijuan Walker's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 50% at a -16% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.