MatchWiz

Chase Burns

Chase Burns — the model's read on today's matchup and how our calls on him have graded. Top board today: outs recorded at 81.1/100.

Today's top board
81.1
Outs Recorded · @ SEA
Season line · ERA
2.54
11-1 · 118 K, 1.11 WHIP
Games graded
18
this season, box-score final
Chase Burns
PBats RThrows RCincinnati Reds
Outs Recorded81.1/100proj 16.2#8Earned Runs64.4/100proj 2.5#15Strikeouts59.8/100proj 5.9#4Fantasy Points56.8/100proj 16.3#2Hits Allowed52.9/100proj 4.1#6Walks Allowed28.8/100proj 2.4#24

Today's matchup

Chase is at Seattle Mariners on the Tuesday, July 21, 2026 slate. He lands on 6 of our boards — outs recorded (81.1/100, #8), earned runs (64.4/100, #15), strikeouts (59.8/100, #4), fantasy points (56.8/100, #2). We project Chase for 16.2 on the outs recorded board. Tap any board for the full breakdown, and check back for the graded result once the game's final.

Recent form

Last time out, Chase struck out 2 over 5.0 innings, 3 earned. His recent starts are in the game log below.

Chase's recent starts

Over his last 5 starts, Chase has 30 strikeouts in 27.0 innings. Strikeouts are where our model has a real, graded edge — his start-by-start log is below.

How the model reads him

Chase's matchup score blends his own rates with the specific spot — the arm he faces and that pitcher's bullpen, the handedness edge, the park, the weather, and his recent form — normalized 0–100 against the rest of the slate. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly. We publish the score and grade it in the open; the record above is the receipt.

Recent game log

DateOppIPKHERBB
Wednesday, July 8vs PHI5.02336
Thursday, July 2@ MIL6.04422
Saturday, June 27@ PIT6.010950
Sunday, June 21@ NYY5.07513
Monday, June 15vs NYM5.07403
Tuesday, June 9@ SD5.37622
Wednesday, June 3vs KC6.09421
Tuesday, May 26@ NYM5.38422
Tuesday, May 19@ PHI6.09310
Thursday, May 14vs WSH6.07202
Saturday, May 9vs HOU6.02413
Sunday, May 3@ PIT7.07301

Chase Burns — FAQ

Who is Chase Burns facing today?

Chase Burns is facing Seattle Mariners on Tuesday, July 21, 2026. His best matchup grades 81.1/100 on our outs recorded board.

What's Chase Burns's projection today?

We project Chase for 16.2 on the outs recorded board (away vs SEA). Every board he's scored on is listed with its matchup score.

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).