Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 3, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 3, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~6.2 K), Aaron Nola (~5.7 K), Eury Pérez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, April 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, April 3, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 3/3 (100%) on our strikeout over/under, against 58% on the season.

Top 3

3/3100%

season 58%

Top 5

5/5100%

season 53%

Full slate

11/2642%

season 55%

Play of the Day: Michael McGreevy ✓

Top call Dylan Cease came through. Nolan McLean didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 70% rate — a +20% return.

Δ1.7Michael McGreevyFinal STL @ DETwe project 5.2 K vs the 3.5 lineOver 3.51u-130✓

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Final · 13–6

LADaway

WSHhomeTop matchup46 Final · 0–4

STLaway

DEThomeTop matchup29 Final · 2–8

MIAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup53 Final · 2–5

SDaway

BOShomeTop matchup48 Final · 4–5

TORaway

CWShomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

CINaway

TEXhomeTop matchup42 Final · 1–4

CHCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup24 Final · 4–10

TBaway

MINhomeTop matchup36 Final · 10–1

PHIaway

COLhomeTop matchup57 Final · 4–5

BALaway

PIThomeTop matchup40 Final · 3–1

SEAaway

LAAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 4–11

HOUaway

ATHhomeTop matchup12 Final · 2–0

ATLaway

AZhomeTop matchup25 Final · 10–3

NYMaway

SFhomeTop matchup49

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate31.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB30.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)20.5%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)23.6%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)23.6%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.0%3.0

5. Austin Hays (R)27.3%2.9

6. Derek Hill (R)24.6%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)24.9%2.0

8. Reese McGuire (L)22.8%2.0

9. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-121

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-113-123

We project 7.0 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB28.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Rob Refsnyder (R)24.2%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)27.1%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)22.5%3.0

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.3%2.8

6. Leo Rivas (R)20.8%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)17.8%2.0

8. Luke Raley (L)27.7%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BRBetRivers+115-152

DKDraftKings+109-139

FANFanatics+110-145

MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)22.6%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)23.1%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.6%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.1%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)21.9%3.0

6. Jo Adell (R)21.8%2.0

7. Josh Lowe (L)26.0%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.2%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)25.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+112-150

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+111-141

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 6.2 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Troy Johnston (L)22.7%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)25.9%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)24.6%3.0

4. Edouard Julien (L)27.9%3.0

5. TJ Rumfield (L)22.5%2.9

6. Willi Castro (L)24.6%2.0

7. Brenton Doyle (R)22.7%2.0

8. Jake McCarthy (L)20.7%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-175+130

BOVBovada-150+115

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)21.2%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)29.2%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)20.6%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)19.1%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)22.2%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.4%2.4

7. Austin Wells (L)23.0%2.0

8. José Caballero (R)22.9%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-130

BOLBetOnline+107-139

BRBetRivers+108-143

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+119-152

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie+102-141

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.4%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)24.7%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)16.5%3.0

4. Matt Chapman (R)22.9%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.7%2.9

6. Heliot Ramos (R)26.5%2.0

7. Harrison Bader (R)23.4%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.3%2.0

9. Jerar Encarnacion (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-133+103

BRBetRivers-134+100

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-123-104

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-136-101

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)28.5%3.0

2. Trevor Story (R)29.4%3.0

3. Jarren Duran (L)22.8%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)24.6%3.0

5. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.4%2.7

6. Caleb Durbin (R)22.7%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)25.8%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.5%2.0

9. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+110

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-134+105

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-150+108

We project 6.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.6%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)18.9%3.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)18.6%3.0

4. Brady House (R)25.0%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)17.5%2.2

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.0%2.0

7. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.5%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)19.8%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-115-115

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-115-111

FDFanDuel-120-110

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Matt McLain (R)24.3%3.0

2. Dane Myers (R)21.8%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.6%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)18.3%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)25.8%2.9

6. TJ Friedl (L)21.2%2.0

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.0%2.0

8. Will Benson (L)25.6%2.0

9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-156+120

BOVBovada-160+120

DKDraftKings-152+119

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-158+114

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.8% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.3%3.0

3. Jake Mangum (L)23.5%3.0

4. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.8%3.0

5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.8%2.6

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)22.4%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)22.0%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)23.3%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)23.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-147+113

BRBetRivers-134+100

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-157+123

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-149+108

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kody Clemens (L)24.8%3.0

2. James Outman (L)24.6%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)17.5%3.0

4. Matt Wallner (L)27.4%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.0%2.8

6. Ryan Jeffers (R)25.1%2.0

7. Austin Martin (R)20.6%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)25.8%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-118-111

BOLBetOnline-116-111

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-118-108

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-119-116

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Boyle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)18.8%3.0

2. Tyrone Taylor (R)22.0%3.0

3. Bo Bichette (R)21.8%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)22.7%2.3

6. Mark Vientos (R)23.2%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.4%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)22.7%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+104-135

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings+103-132

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.6%3.0

2. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.4%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)20.1%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)21.5%3.0

5. Ramón Laureano (R)23.3%2.7

6. Miguel Andujar (R)22.9%2.0

7. Gavin Sheets (L)23.8%2.0

8. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.5%2.0

9. Freddy Fermin (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers+107-141

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-101-127

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie-105-131

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

★★ Play of the Day

We're projecting 5.2 K, but the book line is 3.5 — so the play is Over 3.5.

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls, where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line. To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 70% rate — a +20% return on the season.

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.3%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)19.6%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)29.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)23.8%3.0

5. Dillon Dingler (R)23.8%2.8

6. Zach McKinstry (L)23.7%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.5%2.0

8. Parker Meadows (L)21.9%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-139+104

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-133+104

FDFanDuel-132+100

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nathan Church (L)21.5%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.4%3.0

4. Nolan Gorman (L)24.7%3.0

5. Jordan Walker (R)22.4%3.0

6. Yohel Pozo (R)18.5%2.2

7. Thomas Saggese (R)23.9%2.0

8. JJ Wetherholt (L)21.1%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-125-107

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-108-118

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-111-124

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)21.9%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.1%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.1%3.0

4. Adley Rutschman (L)20.2%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)23.2%2.8

6. Dylan Beavers (L)23.4%2.0

7. Coby Mayo (R)26.4%2.0

8. Colton Cowser (L)22.1%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-145+110

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-159+118

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-151+118

FDFanDuel-166+124

MBMyBookie-150+108

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)18.7%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.3%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.4%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)22.8%2.9

6. Alek Thomas (L)23.8%2.0

7. James McCann (R)25.2%2.0

8. Carlos Santana (L)24.6%2.0

9. Tim Tawa (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-108-124

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-117-109

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-127-109

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)20.2%3.0

2. Alex Bregman (R)20.3%3.0

3. Ian Happ (R)23.5%3.0

4. Carson Kelly (R)21.9%3.0

5. Michael Busch (L)21.5%2.4

6. Dansby Swanson (R)23.5%2.0

7. Matt Shaw (R)19.4%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)26.5%2.0

9. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+150-205

DKDraftKings+129-165

FANFanatics+120-160

MBMyBookie+112-156

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.9%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.9%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)17.1%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.1%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.4%2.7

6. Raisel Iglesias (R)22.0%2.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)21.3%2.0

8. Michael Harris II (L)22.3%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-108-120

BRBetRivers+100-132

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-122

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie-111-124

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)19.4%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)20.7%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)26.3%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)22.2%2.7

6. Josh Smith (L)19.4%2.0

7. Josh Jung (R)25.0%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)20.3%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-165+123

DKDraftKings-156+122

MBMyBookie-150+108

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.7%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)23.9%3.0

3. Dylan Moore (R)27.7%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)17.3%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)21.3%2.9

6. Otto Kemp (R)23.9%2.0

7. Brandon Marsh (L)18.4%2.0

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.8%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+124-161

BRBetRivers+135-182

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+123-157

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+117-163

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB23.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)16.8%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)25.0%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)19.9%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.9%3.0

5. Bo Naylor (L)25.7%2.9

6. Angel Martínez (L)24.4%2.0

7. Daniel Schneemann (L)23.6%2.0

8. Gabriel Arias (R)28.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-160+125

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cade Horton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)24.3%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)18.3%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.0%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)17.8%3.0

5. Otto Lopez (R)20.0%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)20.9%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)22.6%2.0

8. Leo Jiménez (R)23.8%2.0

9. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+126-164

BRBetRivers+143-195

BOVBovada+130-170

FDFanDuel+130-174

MBMyBookie+119-165

We project 4.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.5 BF

Expected batters faced19.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)25.2%3.0

2. Jesús Sánchez (L)20.3%2.5

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.6%2.0

4. Myles Straw (R)20.4%2.0

5. Tyler Heineman (L)21.5%2.0

6. Daulton Varsho (L)22.4%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)22.8%2.0

8. Ernie Clement (R)16.0%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Taylor's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness25.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)28.6%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.8%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.3%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)28.0%3.0

5. Darell Hernaiz (R)22.2%2.8

6. Lawrence Butler (L)21.4%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)29.3%2.0

8. Andy Ibáñez (R)21.6%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)28.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-114-114

BRBetRivers-129-104

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-121-106

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-117-117

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristian Javier's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ryan Vilade (R)23.5%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.2%3.0

3. Junior Caminero (R)24.3%3.0

4. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.7%3.0

5. Nick Fortes (R)17.3%2.3

6. Cedric Mullins (L)24.6%2.0

7. Ben Williamson (R)23.2%2.0

8. Chandler Simpson (L)16.9%2.0

9. Carson Williams (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+135-180

BRBetRivers+140-190

BOVBovada+135-180

FDFanDuel+132-178

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB19.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.7%3.0

2. Christian Vázquez (R)21.8%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)18.9%3.0

4. Joey Loperfido (L)21.7%3.0

5. Nick Allen (R)21.0%2.9

6. Cam Smith (R)24.7%2.0

7. Jake Meyers (R)21.7%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)21.5%2.0

9. Brice Matthews (R)29.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+107-137

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 4.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)20.9%3.0

3. Mookie Betts (R)18.4%3.0

4. Santiago Espinal (R)15.3%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)21.1%3.0

6. Max Muncy (L)23.0%2.2

7. Alex Call (R)16.7%2.0

8. Andy Pages (R)19.0%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, April 3, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, April 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K, with Reid Detmers (LAA) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. He's missing bats at a 31% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and CWS has been whiff-prone, going down 24% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Reid Detmers (LAA) (74) — about 6.3 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (62) — about 6.2 K vs LAA: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Aaron Nola (PHI) (57) — about 5.7 K vs COL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Eury Pérez (MIA) (53) — about 6.1 K vs NYY: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Nolan McLean (NYM) (49) — about 5.9 K vs SF: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Cristian Javier is the arm to exploit it (12).
BOS is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Michael King is the arm to exploit it (48).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Aaron Nola is the arm to exploit it (57).
CWS is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Dylan Cease is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, April 3, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against CWS. A 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, April 3, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.0 K), Reid Detmers (~6.3 K), Bryan Woo (~6.2 K), Aaron Nola (~5.7 K), Eury Pérez (~6.1 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, April 3, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 70% at a +20% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays