MatchWiz

Framber Valdez

Framber Valdez — 8-8, 4.35 ERA. The model's read on his matchups, graded in the open.

Today's top board
No game on the current slate
Season line · ERA
4.35
8-8 · 111 K, 1.40 WHIP
Games graded
25
this season, box-score final
Framber Valdez
PBats RThrows LDetroit Tigers

Season line

25 starts, 8-8, 4.35 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 138.2 innings. He's struck out 111 over that span, against 54 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.

He throws left-handed

Framber is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.

His last 5 starts

Framber has 23 strikeouts in 30.3 innings across his last 5 starts, a 6.8 K/9, with a 3.56 ERA over that stretch and 16 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.

Strikeouts and control

Framber has 111 strikeouts and 54 walks in 138.7 innings this season — 7.2 K/9 against 3.5 BB/9, a 2.1-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.

What his floor looks like

Framber has made 25 starts this season, averaging 5.5 innings with a 4.35 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 11 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.

How long he goes

Framber is averaging 5.4 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 7.0 and about 87 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.

His best start in the log

Framber's high-water mark was Thursday, July 9, 2026 against ATH: 9 strikeouts over 7.0 innings, 1 earned run. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.

How the model reads him

The number on Framber is about tonight, not about him. Strip out the name and the model is asking one question: what does this specific lineup do to this kind of arm, in this park, for as many batters as he's likely to face? That gets scored against every other starter on the slate. The combination math is proprietary and re-tuned every week. The grading isn't — it's all public, including the misses.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppIPKHERBB
Monday, August 17@ PIT5.75544
Wednesday, August 12vs CLE5.73645
Thursday, August 6@ SEA7.05502
Saturday, August 1@ ATH7.06922
Sunday, July 26vs KC5.04423
Tuesday, July 21@ CHC0.71562
Thursday, July 9vs ATH7.09310
Thursday, July 2@ TEX5.01952
Saturday, June 27vs HOU6.02840
Monday, June 22vs NYY6.08412
Tuesday, June 16@ HOU6.06603
Wednesday, June 10vs MIN5.02642

Framber Valdez — FAQ

How has Framber Valdez been pitching lately?

Over his last 5 starts, Framber has 23 strikeouts in 30.3 innings, allowing 12 earned runs. Start-by-start detail is in the log on this page.

Are Framber Valdez's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).