MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
MLB · P · Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller — the model's read on today's matchup and how our calls on him have graded. Top board today: walks allowed at 83.8/100.

Today's top board
83.8
Walks Allowed · @ WSH
Season line · ERA
4.87
6-5 · 73 K, 1.30 WHIP
Games graded
17
this season, box-score final
Mitch Keller
PBats RThrows RPittsburgh Pirates
Walks Allowed83.8/100proj 1.6#6Outs Recorded55.9/100proj 15.6#13Strikeouts23.6/100proj 4.3#20Earned Runs0/100proj 3.8#23Fantasy Points0/100proj 8.6#23Hits Allowed0/100proj 5.9#23

Today's matchup

Mitch is at Washington Nationals on the Friday, July 3, 2026 slate. He lands on 6 of our boards — walks allowed (83.8/100, #6), outs recorded (55.9/100, #13), strikeouts (23.6/100, #20), earned runs (0/100, #23). We project Mitch for 1.6 on the walks allowed board. Tap any board for the full breakdown, and check back for the graded result once the game's final.

Recent form

Last time out, Mitch struck out 4 over 6.0 innings, 3 earned. His recent starts are in the game log below.

Mitch's recent starts

Over his last 5 starts, Mitch has 22 strikeouts in 26.0 innings. Strikeouts are where our model has a real, graded edge — his start-by-start log is below.

How the model reads him

Mitch's matchup score blends his own rates with the specific spot — the arm he faces and that pitcher's bullpen, the handedness edge, the park, the weather, and his recent form — normalized 0–100 against the rest of the slate. The exact weighting is proprietary and tuned weekly. We publish the score and grade it in the open; the record above is the receipt.

Recent game log

DateOppIPKHERBB
Sunday, June 28vs CIN6.04531
Tuesday, June 23vs SEA6.04731
Tuesday, June 16@ ATH5.37544
Thursday, June 11vs LAD4.03754
Friday, June 5@ ATL4.74763
Saturday, May 30vs MIN4.051071
Sunday, May 24@ TOR6.05413
Tuesday, May 19@ STL5.73441
Wednesday, May 13vs COL5.73761
Thursday, May 7@ AZ6.04422
Friday, May 1vs CIN7.06311
Saturday, April 25@ MIL5.06532

Mitch Keller — FAQ

Who is Mitch Keller facing today?

Mitch Keller is facing Washington Nationals on Friday, July 3, 2026. His best matchup grades 83.8/100 on our walks allowed board.

What's Mitch Keller's projection today?

We project Mitch for 1.6 on the walks allowed board (away vs WSH). Every board he's scored on is listed with its matchup score.

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).