Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 8, 2026)?

Aaron Nola (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 8, 2026: Aaron Nola (~5.8 K), Dylan Cease (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.1 K), Will Warren (~5.8 K), Bryan Woo (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, April 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 0/3 (0%) on our strikeout over/under, against 50% on the season.

Top 3

0/30%

season 50%

Top 5

0/50%

season 45%

Full slate

13/2945%

season 51%

Top call Cole Ragans came through. Aaron Nola didn't.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 67% — a +19% return.

Final · 8–2

SDaway

PIThomeTop matchup58 Final · 2–10

KCaway

CLEhomeTop matchup68 Final · 0–5

MILaway

BOShomeTop matchup50 Final · 5–3

BALaway

CWShomeTop matchup70 Final · 0–3

SEAaway

TEXhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–4

LADaway

TORhomeTop matchup96 Final · 1–9

HOUaway

COLhomeTop matchup18 Final · 0–5

PHIaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

STLaway

WSHhomeTop matchup30 Final · 8–2

ATLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup59 Final · 7–2

AZaway

NYMhomeTop matchup31 Final · 6–2

CHCaway

TBhomeTop matchup52 Final · 4–7

CINaway

MIAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–2

ATHaway

NYYhomeTop matchup79 Final · 6–8

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup61

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB31.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)23.6%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)13.7%3.0

3. Matt Chapman (R)20.7%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)25.3%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)19.4%3.0

6. Jared Oliva (R)22.0%2.1

7. Harrison Bader (R)24.6%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)21.0%2.0

9. Christian Koss (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline-111-116

BRBetRivers+114-152

DKDraftKings+110-140

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.6% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB29.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.5%3.0

2. Kyle Tucker (L)19.1%3.0

3. Will Smith (R)18.0%3.0

4. Freddie Freeman (L)16.5%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)26.6%2.8

6. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.3%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)20.1%2.0

8. Alex Freeland (L)24.1%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)20.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-129+101

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB27.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luke Raley (L)24.5%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)27.0%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.4%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)20.5%3.0

5. Brendan Donovan (L)19.8%3.0

6. Mitch Garver (R)22.6%2.0

7. J.P. Crawford (L)21.1%2.0

8. Connor Joe (R)21.5%2.0

9. Cole Young (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-105-123

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-107-119

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel+106-140

MBMyBookie-109-127

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness25.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Kurtz (L)26.7%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)25.9%3.0

3. Tyler Soderstrom (L)22.3%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)26.9%3.0

5. Jacob Wilson (R)17.5%2.4

6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.6%2.0

7. Max Muncy (R)26.9%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)23.9%2.0

9. Denzel Clarke (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-133+103

BRBetRivers-112-120

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-131+102

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-133-104

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.6%3.0

2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.8%3.0

3. Corey Seager (L)23.6%3.0

4. Jake Burger (R)25.4%3.0

5. Andrew McCutchen (R)23.0%3.0

6. Evan Carter (L)21.2%2.0

7. Danny Jansen (R)23.9%2.0

8. Josh Smith (L)18.4%2.0

9. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-152+117

BRBetRivers-165+123

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-159+125

FDFanDuel-166+124

MBMyBookie-158+114

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.2%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)22.4%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.7%3.0

5. Tyler O'Neill (R)23.4%2.6

6. Ryan Mountcastle (R)22.3%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)24.3%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)24.4%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-154+120

FDFanDuel-146+110

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.6%

vs RHB27.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)17.0%3.0

2. Angel Martínez (R)18.5%3.0

3. José Ramírez (R)15.9%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.8%3.0

5. Chase DeLauter (L)23.3%2.5

6. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.5%2.0

7. Juan Brito (R)20.8%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)22.3%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-111-116

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-111-115

FDFanDuel-106-125

MBMyBookie-115-120

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cole Ragans's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.9%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)24.2%3.0

2. Daulton Varsho (L)23.2%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.9%3.0

4. Jesús Sánchez (L)23.0%3.0

5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)32.9%3.0

6. Ernie Clement (R)14.9%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)24.5%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)17.6%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-154+118

BRBetRivers-182+135

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-149+117

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-146+110

MBMyBookie-156+112

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Shohei Ohtani's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chase Meidroth (R)19.5%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)24.7%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)21.4%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.0%3.0

5. Derek Hill (R)26.6%2.2

6. Dustin Harris (L)22.3%2.0

7. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.1%2.0

8. Reese McGuire (L)21.7%2.0

9. Tristan Peters (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-164+126

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-170+130

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-160+120

MBMyBookie-165+119

We project 5.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Bradish's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)22.3%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)25.3%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)23.4%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)21.5%3.0

5. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.1%3.0

6. Will Benson (L)25.7%2.1

7. Tyler Stephenson (R)25.4%2.0

8. Noelvi Marte (R)21.1%2.0

9. Nathaniel Lowe (L)19.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BRBetRivers-114-117

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-130+102

FDFanDuel-120-110

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Eury Pérez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.9%3.0

2. James Outman (L)25.1%3.0

3. Luke Keaschall (R)23.1%3.0

4. Ryan Jeffers (R)20.0%3.0

5. Victor Caratini (R)21.8%3.0

6. Josh Bell (R)25.8%2.3

7. Matt Wallner (L)25.5%2.0

8. Royce Lewis (R)23.5%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-130

BOLBetOnline+100-130

BRBetRivers-113-118

DKDraftKings-104-123

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie-104-133

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.3%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)18.4%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)18.0%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)24.6%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)19.0%3.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)22.5%2.1

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.6%2.0

8. Jonah Heim (R)18.6%2.0

9. Michael Harris II (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-159+122

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-143+112

FANFanatics-140+105

FDFanDuel-132+100

MBMyBookie-160+116

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.7%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)20.2%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.3%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.4%3.0

5. Nick Yorke (R)20.9%2.8

6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.4%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)20.0%2.0

8. Joey Bart (R)24.4%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-119-109

BRBetRivers-125-107

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-130+102

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)25.8%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)17.8%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)29.3%3.0

5. Yoán Moncada (L)26.1%2.7

6. Jo Adell (R)22.8%2.0

7. Jeimer Candelario (L)25.8%2.0

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.1%2.0

9. Oswald Peraza (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-130

BOLBetOnline+103-133

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+104-133

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie-101-136

We project 5.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%

vs RHB23.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)15.8%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)21.7%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)14.5%3.0

4. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)21.3%3.0

5. Carson Kelly (R)20.3%3.0

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)23.3%2.0

7. Dansby Swanson (R)24.0%2.0

8. Michael Conforto (L)24.3%2.0

9. Matt Shaw (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers+104-137

DKDraftKings+104-133

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+102-141

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joe Boyle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)18.8%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.4%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)22.3%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)19.4%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)21.5%2.3

6. Lane Thomas (R)21.6%2.0

7. Jonathan India (R)22.2%2.0

8. Starling Marte (R)25.5%2.0

9. Isaac Collins (R)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BOLBetOnline+113-147

BRBetRivers+115-152

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+108-149

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sal Frelick (L)20.2%3.0

2. Garrett Mitchell (L)28.1%3.0

3. Christian Yelich (L)22.0%3.0

4. Luis Matos (R)20.0%3.0

5. Gary Sánchez (R)26.0%2.6

6. Luis Rengifo (L)20.0%2.0

7. Brandon Lockridge (R)19.5%2.0

8. David Hamilton (L)19.9%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+124-161

BRBetRivers+115-155

DKDraftKings+117-150

FANFanatics+115-150

MBMyBookie+117-163

We project 5.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB20.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)23.1%3.0

2. Xavier Edwards (L)16.7%3.0

3. Agustín Ramírez (R)23.6%3.0

4. Liam Hicks (L)18.6%3.0

5. Connor Norby (R)23.4%2.6

6. Owen Caissie (L)24.2%2.0

7. Griffin Conine (L)25.9%2.0

8. Javier Sanoja (R)17.8%2.0

9. Graham Pauley (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BRBetRivers-141+106

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-133+104

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-130-106

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Roman Anthony (L)25.3%3.0

2. Andruw Monasterio (R)21.2%3.0

3. Willson Contreras (R)20.5%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.5%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)23.4%3.0

6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.1%2.0

7. Carlos Narváez (R)20.8%2.0

8. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.7%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)23.7%3.0

2. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)19.2%3.0

4. Ty France (R)20.4%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)18.5%3.0

6. Miguel Andujar (R)22.4%2.1

7. Bryce Johnson (L)26.1%2.0

8. Luis Campusano (R)21.3%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+116-155

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings+112-143

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.3%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)25.7%3.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.8%3.0

4. Ben Rice (L)20.8%3.0

5. Giancarlo Stanton (R)24.5%2.2

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.0%2.0

7. J.C. Escarra (L)21.9%2.0

8. Amed Rosario (R)22.6%2.0

9. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-118-111

BOLBetOnline-123-105

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-141+110

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-125-110

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Luis Severino's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.1% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Francisco Lindor (L)20.3%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)20.8%3.0

3. Jorge Polanco (L)19.2%3.0

4. Luis Robert Jr. (R)22.1%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)24.0%2.4

6. Mark Vientos (R)20.6%2.0

7. Marcus Semien (R)24.1%2.0

8. Carson Benge (L)21.5%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-114-114

BRBetRivers-122-108

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-107-119

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-119-116

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Ryne Nelson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Spencer Torkelson (R)27.6%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)18.5%3.0

3. Gleyber Torres (R)18.6%3.0

4. Jahmai Jones (R)24.1%2.9

5. Riley Greene (L)22.3%2.0

6. Dillon Dingler (R)24.3%2.0

7. Parker Meadows (L)23.3%2.0

8. Zach McKinstry (L)23.5%2.0

9. Javier Báez (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline+102-132

BRBetRivers-107-125

DKDraftKings+101-129

FDFanDuel+104-138

MBMyBookie-102-135

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.5%3.0

2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.3%3.0

3. Jake Fraley (L)18.8%3.0

4. Junior Caminero (R)22.6%2.1

5. Chandler Simpson (L)14.0%2.0

6. Ben Williamson (R)22.9%2.0

7. Hunter Feduccia (L)24.4%2.0

8. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+109-141

BRBetRivers+104-137

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+114-152

MBMyBookie+101-140

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.8%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.7%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)20.2%3.0

4. Daylen Lile (L)19.1%3.0

5. CJ Abrams (L)18.8%2.5

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

7. José Tena (L)22.8%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.9%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-110-121

DKDraftKings-106-121

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-114-114

MBMyBookie-114-121

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.4%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)21.2%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)20.7%2.4

6. Adolis García (R)23.7%2.0

7. Dylan Moore (R)24.0%2.0

8. Rafael Marchán (L)20.3%2.0

9. Otto Kemp (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-101-128

BRBetRivers-107-125

DKDraftKings+102-130

FDFanDuel-102-130

MBMyBookie-105-131

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Mahle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)19.3%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.3%3.0

3. Jose Altuve (R)18.8%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)22.8%3.0

5. Christian Walker (R)18.7%2.9

6. Cam Smith (R)22.6%2.0

7. Joey Loperfido (L)24.9%2.0

8. Brice Matthews (R)25.7%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-119-109

DKDraftKings-112-114

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-130-102

MBMyBookie-123-113

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)19.1%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)19.8%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.2%3.0

4. Gabriel Moreno (R)18.0%3.0

5. Nolan Arenado (R)18.2%3.0

6. Ildemaro Vargas (R)18.0%2.3

7. Jose Fernandez (R)20.0%2.0

8. Tim Tawa (R)21.4%2.0

9. Jorge Barrosa (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+139-182

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+123-157

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+130-182

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%

vs RHB16.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)15.8%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)25.8%3.0

5. Yohel Pozo (R)19.6%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)20.8%2.4

7. Ramón Urías (R)23.0%2.0

8. Victor Scott II (L)25.4%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-115-112

BRBetRivers-120-112

DKDraftKings-116-110

FDFanDuel-118-112

MBMyBookie-119-116

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Miles Mikolas's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)2.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)26.7%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)19.9%3.0

3. Mickey Moniak (L)20.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)26.5%3.0

5. Jake McCarthy (L)19.9%2.6

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)23.2%2.0

7. Troy Johnston (L)22.3%2.0

8. Brenton Doyle (R)26.2%2.0

9. Kyle Karros (R)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-145

BOLBetOnline+130-169

DKDraftKings+119-152

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+123-171

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Cristian Javier's full player page →

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Wednesday, April 8, 2026

Aaron Nola (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Wednesday, April 8, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Dylan Cease (TOR) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Aaron Nola

Aaron Nola (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. He's missing bats at a 27% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SF has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Dylan Cease (TOR) (96) — about 6.1 K vs LAD: a 31% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
MacKenzie Gore (TEX) (89) — about 6.1 K vs SEA: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Will Warren (NYY) (79) — about 5.8 K vs ATH: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
Bryan Woo (SEA) (71) — about 5.8 K vs TEX: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Sean Burke (CWS) (70) — about 5.7 K vs BAL: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Will Warren is the arm to exploit it (79).
LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Grant Holmes is the arm to exploit it (57).
MIN is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Framber Valdez is the arm to exploit it (61).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Cristian Javier is the arm to exploit it (0).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.7 strikeouts. Top play Aaron Nola punched out 3. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Wednesday, April 8, 2026)?: Aaron Nola (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Wednesday, April 8, 2026: Aaron Nola (~5.8 K), Dylan Cease (~6.1 K), MacKenzie Gore (~6.1 K), Will Warren (~5.8 K), Bryan Woo (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Wednesday, April 8, 2026?: Aaron Nola punched out 3.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 67% at a +19% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays