Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 3, 2026)?

Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 3, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Spencer Strider (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, May 3, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 63% — a +12% return.

Final · 3–4

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup68 Final · 3–1

HOUaway

BOShomeTop matchup59 Final · 0–1

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–11

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup70 Final · 2–3

MILaway

WSHhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–2

SFaway

TBhomeTop matchup47 Final · 7–2

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–1

LADaway

STLhomeTop matchup47 Final · 4–8

AZaway

CHChomeTop matchup63 Final · 11–6

ATLaway

COLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–7

CLEaway

ATHhomeTop matchup89 Final · 5–1

NYMaway

LAAhomeTop matchup70 Final · 4–1

KCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup64 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

SDhomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–7

TEXaway

DEThomeTop matchup64

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%

vs RHB26.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.6%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.0%3.0

3. Henry Davis (R)21.0%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)18.7%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)16.6%2.9

6. Billy Cook (R)24.1%2.0

7. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.7%2.0

8. Konnor Griffin (R)23.8%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-127-106

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-134+105

FDFanDuel-132+100

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB27.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)16.7%3.0

2. Brent Rooker (R)23.9%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)28.0%3.0

4. Lawrence Butler (L)25.3%3.0

5. Zack Gelof (R)24.1%2.8

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.5%2.0

7. Austin Wynns (R)21.3%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)17.5%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOLBetOnline-108-120

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-113-112

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-111-124

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.4%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Otto Lopez (R)19.1%3.0

2. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.4%3.0

3. Owen Caissie (L)29.7%3.0

4. Connor Norby (R)21.9%3.0

5. Graham Pauley (L)20.5%3.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)26.2%2.5

7. Leo Jiménez (R)23.9%2.0

8. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.5%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline-106-122

BRBetRivers-113-118

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-111-114

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-110-120

MBMyBookie-110-125

We project 6.0 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)20.8%3.0

2. Dane Myers (R)21.7%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)25.8%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.2%3.0

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)21.6%3.0

6. Spencer Steer (R)23.7%2.0

7. Will Benson (L)25.8%2.0

8. Jose Trevino (R)21.1%2.0

9. Matt McLain (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-136+102

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-134+105

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.1% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB26.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Edouard Julien (L)24.6%3.0

2. Mickey Moniak (L)21.3%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)29.3%3.0

4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.0%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)21.3%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)24.7%2.0

7. Brett Sullivan (L)20.8%2.0

8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.6%2.0

9. Jake McCarthy (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+116-154

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)17.6%3.0

2. Adley Rutschman (R)18.3%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%3.0

4. Tyler O'Neill (R)26.9%3.0

5. Coby Mayo (R)22.8%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (R)22.8%3.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.7%2.1

8. Samuel Basallo (L)22.8%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-162+120

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-158+123

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-153+111

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.0%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)15.5%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)27.5%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.5%3.0

6. Josh Lowe (L)25.4%2.3

7. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.1%2.0

8. Oswald Peraza (R)24.4%2.0

9. Travis d'Arnaud (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BOLBetOnline-145+112

BRBetRivers-136+102

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-163+127

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-154+116

MBMyBookie-148+107

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Myles Straw (R)16.7%3.0

2. Kazuma Okamoto (R)26.8%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)15.3%3.0

4. Davis Schneider (R)25.2%3.0

5. Lenyn Sosa (R)20.0%2.6

6. Daulton Varsho (L)21.0%2.0

7. Ernie Clement (R)13.3%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)18.9%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+112-145

BRBetRivers+110-148

DKDraftKings+109-139

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+108-144

MBMyBookie+107-148

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB22.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Dominic Canzone (L)23.6%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.8%3.0

3. Josh Naylor (L)21.7%3.0

4. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%3.0

5. J.P. Crawford (L)18.6%2.9

6. Cole Young (L)18.3%2.0

7. Connor Joe (R)23.8%2.0

8. Jhonny Pereda (R)24.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers+100-134

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-111-115

FDFanDuel-110-122

MBMyBookie-113-123

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.4%3.0

2. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%3.0

3. Zack Short (R)23.3%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)25.1%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.2%3.0

6. Kerry Carpenter (L)26.2%2.0

7. Wenceel Pérez (L)17.8%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)21.5%2.0

9. Jake Rogers (R)24.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+124-161

BRBetRivers+128-175

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+124-159

FANFanatics+115-150

FDFanDuel+124-166

MBMyBookie+117-163

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.9%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)19.7%3.0

3. Jacob Young (R)19.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)18.2%2.4

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.4%2.0

6. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.6%2.0

7. Brady House (R)28.7%2.0

8. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.4%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BOLBetOnline-115-112

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-115-111

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-112-118

MBMyBookie-119-116

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.7%

vs RHB24.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)20.7%3.0

2. Geraldo Perdomo (R)16.6%3.0

3. Corbin Carroll (L)20.4%3.0

4. Ildemaro Vargas (R)16.9%2.8

5. Nolan Arenado (R)18.4%2.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.3%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.7%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.9%2.0

9. Adrian Del Castillo (L)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+110-143

BRBetRivers+114-152

DKDraftKings+111-141

FDFanDuel+100-132

MBMyBookie+105-145

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)19.1%3.0

2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.1%3.0

3. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.3%3.0

6. Jasson Domínguez (L)22.0%2.0

7. Austin Wells (L)19.5%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)26.6%2.0

9. José Caballero (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+115-147

FDFanDuel+122-162

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)17.1%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)16.6%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)17.6%3.0

4. Braden Shewmake (L)23.3%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)19.5%2.6

6. Brice Matthews (R)28.3%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)26.5%2.0

8. Yainer Diaz (R)19.8%2.0

9. Daniel Johnson (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-143+110

BRBetRivers-157+117

BOVBovada-145+110

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-148+112

MBMyBookie-145+105

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.5%3.0

2. Trevor Larnach (L)19.1%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)19.8%3.0

4. Victor Caratini (L)20.2%3.0

5. Luke Keaschall (R)18.6%2.7

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.9%2.0

7. Royce Lewis (R)25.7%2.0

8. James Outman (L)27.1%2.0

9. Brooks Lee (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-135+105

BRBetRivers-141+106

DKDraftKings-144+113

FDFanDuel-138+104

MBMyBookie-138+100

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)19.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.0%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.2%3.0

4. Starling Marte (R)22.1%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)26.8%2.7

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.4%2.0

7. Isaac Collins (L)24.8%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)20.6%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BRBetRivers-134+100

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-134+105

FANFanatics-120-110

FDFanDuel-122-108

MBMyBookie-130-106

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)29.0%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.5%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)18.4%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.8%2.3

6. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.1%2.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)21.5%2.0

8. Felix Reyes (R)22.0%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)17.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline-137+106

BRBetRivers-162+120

BOVBovada-145+110

DKDraftKings-133+104

FDFanDuel-144+108

MBMyBookie-140+101

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.8%

vs RHB20.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.6%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)15.6%3.0

3. Teoscar Hernández (R)25.4%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.4%3.0

5. Max Muncy (L)19.6%2.8

6. Dalton Rushing (L)24.7%2.0

7. Andy Pages (R)22.8%2.0

8. Miguel Rojas (R)17.6%2.0

9. Santiago Espinal (R)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+102-136

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+103-132

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+110-146

MBMyBookie+100-138

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Steven Kwan (L)14.7%3.0

2. Chase DeLauter (L)14.2%3.0

3. José Ramírez (L)17.3%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.9%3.0

5. Daniel Schneemann (L)26.7%2.6

6. Travis Bazzana (L)20.6%2.0

7. Petey Halpin (L)21.7%2.0

8. David Fry (R)25.5%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BOLBetOnline-149+115

BRBetRivers-159+120

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-140+110

FDFanDuel-160+120

MBMyBookie-152+109

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB21.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.9%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)24.4%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)20.0%3.0

4. Luis Arraez (L)14.0%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)23.3%2.2

6. Willy Adames (R)24.5%2.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.8%2.0

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.9%2.0

9. Eric Haase (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-108-120

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-110-116

FDFanDuel-108-122

MBMyBookie-111-124

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%

vs RHB23.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)23.4%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)25.4%2.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)25.4%2.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.5%2.0

5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)18.9%2.0

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.0%2.0

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.7%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.8%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)15.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB19.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)14.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.5%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.9%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)24.2%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.5%3.0

6. Edgar Quero (L)21.3%2.0

7. Tristan Peters (L)21.1%2.0

8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.0%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)20.6%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.0%3.0

3. Jordan Walker (R)25.4%3.0

4. Alec Burleson (L)19.3%3.0

5. Masyn Winn (R)19.6%3.0

6. José Fermín (R)19.2%2.3

7. Nathan Church (L)21.5%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)26.0%2.0

9. Nolan Gorman (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOLBetOnline-147+114

BRBetRivers-137+104

BOVBovada-165+125

DKDraftKings-148+116

FDFanDuel-166+124

MBMyBookie-150+108

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)13.8%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)20.2%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)23.5%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)21.2%3.0

5. Jonny DeLuca (R)20.1%2.9

6. Ben Williamson (R)21.2%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.7%2.0

8. Hunter Feduccia (L)25.3%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers+105-139

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+118-151

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+118-158

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.4%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)17.7%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.2%2.9

4. Matt Olson (L)22.1%2.0

5. Austin Riley (R)22.3%2.0

6. Eli White (R)23.0%2.0

7. Jonah Heim (R)19.3%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)28.6%2.0

9. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOLBetOnline-122-106

BRBetRivers-152+115

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-117-109

FDFanDuel-136+102

MBMyBookie-124-111

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB21.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)13.0%3.0

2. Moisés Ballesteros (L)17.4%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)16.8%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)24.7%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.9%3.0

6. Michael Busch (L)23.8%2.5

7. Carson Kelly (R)21.5%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.4%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-161+123

BRBetRivers-152+115

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-162+127

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-152+114

MBMyBookie-162+117

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.8% K / BF

vs LHB16.2%

vs RHB19.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)19.6%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)17.3%3.0

3. Austin Slater (R)22.9%3.0

4. Brett Baty (L)22.6%3.0

5. Marcus Semien (R)18.8%3.0

6. Carson Benge (L)20.8%2.6

7. Mark Vientos (R)24.5%2.0

8. Tyrone Taylor (R)20.3%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOLBetOnline-127-102

BRBetRivers-129-104

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-132+103

FDFanDuel-125-106

MBMyBookie-130-106

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.2 BF

Expected batters faced14.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Brandon Nimmo (L)23.6%2.0

2. Alejandro Osuna (L)21.6%2.0

3. Corey Seager (L)27.0%2.0

4. Josh Jung (R)18.9%2.0

5. Jake Burger (R)24.0%2.0

6. Evan Carter (L)26.2%1.2

7. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.4%1.0

8. Josh Smith (L)28.2%1.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.1%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB13.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)1.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ramón Laureano (R)21.8%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%3.0

3. Jackson Merrill (L)24.6%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)18.7%2.9

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)17.3%2.0

6. Ty France (R)21.3%2.0

7. Bryce Johnson (R)23.4%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)23.6%2.0

9. Jake Cronenworth (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+122-159

BRBetRivers-103-129

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+125-160

FANFanatics+120-160

FDFanDuel+122-162

MBMyBookie+116-160

We project 3.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.5 BF

Expected batters faced13.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection2.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Luis Rengifo (R)18.1%2.0

2. William Contreras (R)21.0%2.0

3. Blake Perkins (R)18.9%2.0

4. Greg Jones (R)24.4%2.0

5. Garrett Mitchell (L)24.8%1.5

6. Brandon Lockridge (R)25.2%1.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)19.3%1.0

8. David Hamilton (L)20.3%1.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Sunday, May 3, 2026

Chase Burns (CIN) is the top strikeout start on the Sunday, May 3, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K, with Parker Messick (CLE) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chase Burns

Chase Burns (CIN) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PIT has been around league average, going down 21% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Parker Messick (CLE) (89) — about 5.7 K vs ATH: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Jesús Luzardo (PHI) (87) — about 6.0 K vs MIA: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (80) — about 5.8 K vs CIN: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Spencer Strider (ATL) (78) — about 5.4 K vs COL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Max Fried (NYY) (70) — about 5.5 K vs BAL: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

TEX is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Tyler Holton is the arm to exploit it (12).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Clay Holmes is the arm to exploit it (70).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Braxton Ashcraft is the arm to exploit it (80).
MIA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jesús Luzardo is the arm to exploit it (87).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.5 strikeouts. Top play Chase Burns punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Sunday, May 3, 2026)?: Chase Burns (CIN) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.0 K against PIT. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Sunday, May 3, 2026: Chase Burns (~6.0 K), Parker Messick (~5.7 K), Jesús Luzardo (~6.0 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.8 K), Spencer Strider (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Sunday, May 3, 2026?: Chase Burns punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.