Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, June 9, 2026)?

Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.5 K), Chase Burns (~6.2 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Results show how each call played out.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 64% — a +15% return.

Final · 6–5

SEAaway

BALhomeTop matchup51 Final · 12–3

LADaway

PIThomeTop matchup67 Final · 3–4

BOSaway

TBhomeTop matchup51 Final · 4–10

MINaway

DEThomeTop matchup41 Final · 6–10

AZaway

MIAhomeTop matchup41 Final · 3–2

NYYaway

CLEhomeTop matchup36 Final · 2–3

PHIaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–0

STLaway

NYMhomeTop matchup51 Final · 3–5

TEXaway

KChomeTop matchup53 Final · 5–6

ATLaway

CWShomeTop matchup30 Final · 3–7

CHCaway

COLhomeTop matchup28 Final · 1–10

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup36 Final · 5–3

CINaway

SDhomeTop matchup69 Final · 6–3

WSHaway

SFhomeTop matchup21 Final · 5–7

MILaway

ATHhomeTop matchup40

Sort

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.4% K / BF

vs LHB31.1%

vs RHB31.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)30.0%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)22.9%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.6%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)21.7%3.0

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.5%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)19.3%2.4

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.2%2.0

8. Adolis García (R)31.3%2.0

9. Steward Berroa (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-147+115

FDFanDuel-138+112

We project 7.5 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB26.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)19.5%3.0

2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.8%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.3%3.0

4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.7%3.0

5. Ty France (R)21.7%3.0

6. Samad Taylor (R)21.6%2.1

7. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

8. Freddy Fermin (R)22.4%2.0

9. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-162+120

FDFanDuel-152+114

We project 6.2 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%

vs RHB28.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Alex Call (R)19.5%3.0

2. Andy Pages (R)20.0%3.0

3. Miguel Rojas (R)15.9%3.0

4. Mookie Betts (R)16.6%3.0

5. Santiago Espinal (R)20.0%3.0

6. Kyle Tucker (L)20.1%2.4

7. Ryan Ward (L)22.7%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.0%2.0

9. Alex Freeland (L)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-115-115

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-119-108

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-110-110

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.1 BF

Expected batters faced25.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)28.1%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)22.4%3.0

3. Maikel Garcia (R)17.2%3.0

4. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)16.6%3.0

5. Salvador Perez (R)21.1%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.7%3.0

7. Michael Massey (L)18.0%3.0

8. Isaac Collins (L)23.9%2.1

9. Tyler Tolbert (R)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers+125-167

BOVBovada+130-170

FDFanDuel+128-172

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.4% K / BF

vs LHB29.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.5%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.9%3.0

3. Pete Alonso (R)21.8%3.0

4. Blaze Alexander (R)22.6%3.0

5. Leody Taveras (L)21.4%2.9

6. Coby Mayo (R)29.2%2.0

7. Jeremiah Jackson (R)19.7%2.0

8. Tyler O'Neill (R)21.2%2.0

9. Samuel Basallo (L)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada+100-130

DKDraftKings-105-121

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-102-130

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%

vs RHB28.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.8%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)16.0%3.0

3. Chandler Simpson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.1%3.0

5. Austin Slater (R)25.9%3.0

6. Cedric Mullins (L)17.4%2.2

7. Ben Williamson (R)22.7%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)17.9%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (R)22.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+122-156

FDFanDuel+120-160

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.6%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)18.7%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.1%3.0

5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.0%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.0%2.8

7. Jimmy Crooks (L)24.6%2.0

8. Nolan Gorman (L)32.8%2.0

9. Nathan Church (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BRBetRivers-141+106

BOVBovada-145+110

FANFanatics-160+120

FDFanDuel-142+116

We project 5.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)21.6%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)16.9%3.0

4. Jared Young (L)24.1%3.0

5. A.J. Ewing (L)27.1%3.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.4%2.7

7. Brett Baty (L)25.8%2.0

8. Mark Vientos (R)24.1%2.0

9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BRBetRivers+115-155

DKDraftKings+119-153

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB25.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)13.6%3.0

2. Nathan Lukes (L)16.4%3.0

3. Ernie Clement (R)14.3%3.0

4. Myles Straw (R)16.4%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)20.8%3.0

6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.4%2.3

7. Kazuma Okamoto (R)31.0%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.3%2.0

9. Charles McAdoo (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-122-108

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-137+107

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-132+100

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)20.2%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)18.9%3.0

4. Zack Short (R)23.4%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)26.2%3.0

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.4%2.4

7. Colt Keith (L)21.3%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (L)20.3%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-106-120

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-118-112

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%

vs RHB21.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)17.4%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.1%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.9%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)21.8%3.0

5. Pavin Smith (L)23.6%3.0

6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.4%2.4

7. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)31.3%2.0

8. LuJames Groover (R)22.0%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-104-129

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-114-112

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-120-102

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB24.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)27.3%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Brice Turang (L)22.8%3.0

4. William Contreras (R)16.5%3.0

5. Jake Bauers (L)23.9%2.5

6. Garrett Mitchell (L)31.7%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)14.0%2.0

8. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BRBetRivers-103-130

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings+107-137

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-105-115

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Patrick Bailey (L)24.0%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)17.0%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)18.0%3.0

4. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.2%3.0

5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.1%2.9

6. Angel Martínez (L)24.9%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)11.5%2.0

8. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.8%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-150+112

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-138+108

FDFanDuel-152+114

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Shay Whitcomb (R)27.1%3.0

2. Taylor Trammell (L)22.0%3.0

3. Collin Price (R)22.0%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)17.0%3.0

5. Brice Matthews (R)26.5%2.7

6. Cam Smith (R)26.2%2.0

7. Joey Loperfido (L)28.5%2.0

8. Jake Meyers (R)21.1%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-122-109

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-126-101

FDFanDuel-120-102

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.4 BF

Expected batters faced19.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Donovan Walton (L)22.0%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.3%2.4

3. Wade Meckler (L)20.2%2.0

4. Jo Adell (R)24.9%2.0

5. Trey Mancini (R)20.8%2.0

6. Oswald Peraza (R)24.4%2.0

7. Denzer Guzman (R)24.3%2.0

8. Jose Siri (R)24.8%2.0

9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Lawrence Butler (L)24.0%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.6%3.0

4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.4%3.0

5. Max Muncy (R)24.1%2.4

6. Jonah Heim (R)21.1%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)29.3%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)24.6%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-108-122

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-103-124

FDFanDuel-120-110

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB21.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.8%3.0

2. Miguel Vargas (R)21.1%3.0

3. Andrew Benintendi (L)21.4%3.0

4. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)21.5%2.8

6. Braden Montgomery (L)22.0%2.0

7. Randal Grichuk (R)22.3%2.0

8. Derek Hill (R)26.5%2.0

9. Drew Romo (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-118

BRBetRivers-108-124

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-108-118

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-108-122

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)22.0%3.0

2. Willi Castro (L)25.1%3.0

3. TJ Rumfield (L)18.6%3.0

4. Hunter Goodman (R)25.6%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)20.4%2.8

6. Ezequiel Tovar (R)24.9%2.0

7. Cole Carrigg (L)22.0%2.0

8. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%2.0

9. Edouard Julien (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-130-103

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-139+109

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB16.3%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Blake Dunn (R)21.9%3.0

2. JJ Bleday (L)22.2%3.0

3. Sal Stewart (R)20.8%3.0

4. Dane Myers (R)22.0%2.6

5. Spencer Steer (R)23.2%2.0

6. Will Benson (L)22.0%2.0

7. Matt McLain (R)25.3%2.0

8. P.J. Higgins (R)22.0%2.0

9. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BRBetRivers-120-112

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-112-114

FANFanatics-130+100

FDFanDuel-132+108

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Joc Pederson (L)19.8%3.0

2. Corey Seager (L)21.3%3.0

3. Josh Jung (R)20.2%3.0

4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.1%3.0

5. Wyatt Langford (R)20.9%3.0

6. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.5%2.8

7. Jake Burger (R)25.7%2.0

8. Evan Carter (L)23.0%2.0

9. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-155+116

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-139+109

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-144+118

We project 4.8 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB18.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.0%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.5%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)24.0%2.6

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%2.0

7. Anthony Volpe (R)23.9%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.8%2.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BRBetRivers-105-127

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+100-127

FANFanatics+100-130

FDFanDuel+100-122

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%

vs RHB23.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Casey Schmitt (R)19.6%3.0

2. Rafael Devers (L)27.7%2.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.9%2.0

4. Willy Adames (R)25.6%2.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)18.2%2.0

6. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.4%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)21.3%2.0

8. Daniel Susac (R)20.5%2.0

9. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BRBetRivers+108-143

DKDraftKings+123-157

FANFanatics+110-145

FDFanDuel-102-130

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.3%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)24.8%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)18.6%3.0

3. Ryan Kreidler (R)25.7%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)23.2%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)21.6%3.0

6. Victor Caratini (L)18.5%2.9

7. Royce Lewis (R)24.9%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)17.6%2.0

9. Tristan Gray (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-165+123

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-142+112

FDFanDuel-164+134

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Victor Robles (R)22.1%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)19.4%3.0

3. Randy Arozarena (R)23.9%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)18.4%2.9

5. Dominic Canzone (L)23.8%2.0

6. Patrick Wisdom (R)31.0%2.0

7. Mitch Garver (R)21.8%2.0

8. Cole Young (L)21.9%2.0

9. Ryan Bliss (R)25.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-175+130

BOVBovada-170+130

FDFanDuel-176+142

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB16.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)26.1%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)17.5%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)22.1%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)25.6%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)16.6%3.0

6. Mickey Gasper (L)20.5%2.9

7. Caleb Durbin (R)17.5%2.0

8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)17.9%2.0

9. Marcelo Mayer (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings+101-129

FANFanatics-105-125

FDFanDuel-102-120

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)27.7%3.0

2. Andrés Chaparro (R)22.7%3.0

3. Dylan Crews (R)23.0%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)19.6%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)17.9%2.6

6. Curtis Mead (R)21.7%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.9%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)18.0%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-132-103

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-113-113

FDFanDuel-105-115

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.7%3.0

2. Endy Rodríguez (R)22.4%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (R)20.7%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.3%3.0

5. Marcell Ozuna (R)24.7%2.3

6. Davis Wendzel (R)25.0%2.0

7. Jake Mangum (R)20.2%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)20.2%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-143+108

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-139+109

FDFanDuel-138+104

We project 4.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.2%3.0

2. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.0%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)22.9%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)18.2%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)26.0%2.7

6. Seiya Suzuki (R)24.9%2.0

7. Nico Hoerner (R)10.8%2.0

8. Carson Kelly (R)18.2%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BRBetRivers-165+123

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-145+114

FANFanatics-150+115

FDFanDuel-148+120

We project 3.9 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB19.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

2. Otto Lopez (R)17.9%3.0

3. Kyle Stowers (L)29.2%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.8%3.0

5. Javier Sanoja (R)15.4%2.5

6. Esteury Ruiz (R)25.8%2.0

7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.1%2.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%2.0

9. Connor Norby (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+120-159

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+125-160

FDFanDuel+120-160

We project 3.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.5% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB16.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)19.0%3.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)23.4%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.1%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)18.2%2.1

6. Austin Riley (R)23.8%2.0

7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)19.8%2.0

8. Jorge Mateo (R)23.1%2.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%

vs RHB24.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)20.5%2.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)19.5%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.9%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)13.6%2.0

5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.0%1.6

6. Dominic Smith (L)19.3%1.0

7. Austin Riley (R)28.3%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.1%1.0

9. Sandy León (R)26.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the top strikeout start on the Tuesday, June 9, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K, with Chase Burns (CIN) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease (TOR) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. He's missing bats at a 32% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and PHI has been around league average, going down 23% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Chase Burns (CIN) (69) — about 6.2 K vs SD: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (67) — about 5.9 K vs LAD: a 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) (53) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (51) — about 5.6 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Payton Tolle (BOS) (51) — about 5.5 K vs TB: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Robert Gasser is the arm to exploit it (34).
LAA is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Kai-Wei Teng is the arm to exploit it (35).
STL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Freddy Peralta is the arm to exploit it (51).
HOU is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Walbert Ureña is the arm to exploit it (36).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.5 strikeouts. Top play Dylan Cease punched out 11. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) weighs his strikeout ability against every hitter in the lineup, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Higher means more whiffs point his way. The exact weighting is our own — we project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Tuesday, June 9, 2026)?: Dylan Cease (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.5 K against PHI. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Tuesday, June 9, 2026: Dylan Cease (~7.5 K), Chase Burns (~6.2 K), Paul Skenes (~5.9 K), Nathan Eovaldi (~5.7 K), Logan Gilbert (~5.6 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Tuesday, June 9, 2026?: Dylan Cease punched out 11.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It weighs each starter's strikeout ability against the specific hitters he's set to face, hand by hand, then factors in how deep he tends to pitch and his command. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside. The exact way those pieces are weighted and combined is our own model, tuned weekly against results.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.