MatchWiz★ Plays◆ Optimizer
Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, July 10, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 10, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

6:40 PM ETMILMILawayPITPIThomeTop matchup1006:40 PM ETPHIPHIawayDETDEThomeTop matchup896:45 PM ETNYYNYYawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup787:05 PM ETKCKCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup617:10 PM ETCHCCHCawayCINCINhomeTop matchup717:10 PM ETSEASEAawayTBTBhomeTop matchup357:10 PM ETCLECLEawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup697:15 PM ETBOSBOSawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup927:40 PM ETATHATHawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup898:05 PM ETHOUHOUawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup458:10 PM ETLAALAAawayMINMINhomeTop matchup658:15 PM ETATLATLawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup899:40 PM ETTORTORawaySDSDhomeTop matchup4110:10 PM ETAZAZawayLADLADhomeTop matchup4010:15 PM ETCOLCOLawaySFSFhomeTop matchup38
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB28.8%
vs RHB24.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs MIA4
Jun 17@ ATH7
Jun 24vs SEA10
Jun 29@ PHI8
Jul 4@ WSH7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.9%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.1%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.3%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)16.7%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.5%3.0
6. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.5%2.6
7. Sal Frelick (L)13.8%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)17.4%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Braxton Ashcraft's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.8%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs ATL6
Jun 17@ CIN9
Jun 24vs CHC9
Jun 30@ TOR7
Jul 5@ ATL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)21.8%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)26.8%3.0
4. Romy Gonzalez (R)22.4%3.0
5. Caleb Durbin (R)17.5%3.0
6. Andruw Monasterio (R)23.5%2.3
7. Nate Eaton (R)21.2%2.0
8. Brett Harris (R)23.8%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nolan McLean's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB28.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ TB6
Jun 7vs SEA7
Jun 12@ CLE1
Jun 28vs HOU9
Jul 4@ TEX5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.2%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.7%2.8
5. Alec Bohm (R)16.6%2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.2%2.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.2%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Flaherty's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.3%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs DET6
Jun 13vs LAD6
Jun 23vs CLE6
Jun 29@ BAL8
Jul 4@ CLE11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)24.0%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)21.0%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.6%3.0
6. Zack Gelof (R)25.7%2.2
7. Colby Thomas (R)25.8%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)22.5%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)27.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Burke's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB27.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4vs TOR6
Jun 10@ CWS6
Jun 20vs MIL7
Jun 28@ SF10
Jul 4vs NYM3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)17.6%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.9%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)20.8%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.1%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.5%3.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)20.4%2.1
8. José Fermín (R)14.6%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chris Sale's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ MIL3
Jun 18vs NYM6
Jun 24@ WSH5
Jun 29vs PIT5
Jul 5@ KC7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.2%3.0
2. Matt Vierling (R)20.1%3.0
3. Spencer Torkelson (R)31.6%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)24.6%3.0
5. Hao-Yu Lee (R)26.0%2.8
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.8%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)18.1%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)26.8%2.0
9. James Outman (L)34.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Aaron Nola's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.1% K / BF

vs LHB24.9%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ TOR2
Jun 18vs CWS8
Jun 24@ DET6
Jun 29vs DET3
Jul 5vs MIN6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)22.0%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)22.0%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)22.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)22.0%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)22.0%2.9
6. Dylan Crews (R)22.0%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)22.0%2.0
8. José Tena (L)22.0%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB26.4%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 4vs BAL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.2%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)16.7%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)18.8%3.0
5. Michael Busch (L)23.1%2.7
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.6%2.0
7. Ian Happ (L)26.8%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)21.9%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Greene's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.7%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs TEX7
Jun 18vs TOR4
Jun 23@ COL11
Jun 28vs NYY9
Jul 4@ LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.4%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.6%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)18.7%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)19.3%3.0
5. Francisco Alvarez (R)26.4%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)20.3%2.8
7. Mark Vientos (R)25.7%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)22.9%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sonny Gray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs NYY4
Jun 18@ MIL9
Jun 23@ CWS10
Jun 29vs TEX5
Jul 4vs CWS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)19.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.7%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (R)18.8%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)26.1%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.8%3.0
6. Griffin Conine (L)22.5%2.8
7. Esteury Ruiz (R)26.2%2.0
8. Jakob Marsee (L)25.4%2.0
9. Leo Jiménez (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Parker Messick's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.5% K / BF

vs LHB26.1%
vs RHB21.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ COL7
Jun 15vs COL3
Jun 24@ NYM4
Jun 29vs SD4
Jul 4vs STL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.0%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.3%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.1%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)17.9%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)28.7%2.8
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)21.3%2.0
7. Noelvi Marte (R)28.1%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R)22.0%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)22.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shota Imanaga's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11@ DET4
Jun 16@ TEX4
Jun 22vs LAD5
Jun 29@ HOU7
Jul 4@ NYY5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)24.0%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.6%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)29.1%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.0%3.0
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.6%3.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)20.8%2.1
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)24.9%2.0
9. Wade Meckler (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zebby Matthews's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ ATH3
Jun 17vs CLE6
Jun 23@ CIN10
Jun 30vs CIN7
Jul 5@ AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)19.0%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.8%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)25.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)31.1%2.6
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.9%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.7%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)29.2%2.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)20.9%2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Sproat's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs SEA5
Jun 16@ SEA2
Jun 21@ LAD5
Jun 27vs WSH8
Jul 4@ CIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Lane Thomas (R)24.1%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.1%3.0
3. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%3.0
4. Starling Marte (R)23.8%3.0
5. Nick Loftin (R)15.8%3.0
6. Jac Caglianone (L)26.9%3.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)22.2%2.1
8. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.9%2.0
9. Luke Maile (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Young's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.6 BF

Expected batters faced25.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ PIT7
Jun 17@ PHI6
Jun 23vs TEX4
Jun 29@ COL3
Jul 4@ ATH8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)21.8%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.1%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)29.0%3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)29.9%3.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.1%3.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.8%2.6
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sandy Alcantara's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 31vs BOS8
Jun 16vs DET7
Jun 22@ TOR4
Jun 28@ DET4
Jul 4vs TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)23.5%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.3%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.9%3.0
4. Josh Jung (R)22.6%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)24.1%2.3
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.5%2.0
7. Kyle Higashioka (R)23.4%2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
9. Alejandro Osuna (L)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hunter Brown's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ MIN5
Jun 17vs SD7
Jun 23vs AZ3
Jun 28vs MIA5
Jul 4@ CHC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)21.1%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)19.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.5%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)21.1%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.7%2.3
6. Dominic Smith (L)18.6%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)26.2%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)20.3%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Leahy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs HOU2
Jun 28vs TEX4
Jul 4@ SEA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.3%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)24.3%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.9%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)19.3%3.0
5. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.8%2.5
6. Luis Campusano (R)21.2%2.0
7. Miguel Andujar (R)17.5%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3@ AZ6
Jun 10@ PIT6
Jun 17vs TB5
Jun 24@ MIN8
Jul 3vs SD9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.3%3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.6%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.1%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.3%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)22.4%3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.3%2.7
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.2%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)21.9%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shohei Ohtani's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ CHC4
Jun 10vs WSH3
Jun 23vs ATH6
Jun 28vs ATL2
Jul 4@ COL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)17.6%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)26.8%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (R)21.7%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.7%3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)21.4%3.0
6. Troy Johnston (L)19.0%2.4
7. Edouard Julien (L)25.9%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.1%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)19.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robbie Ray's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB19.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs ATL5
Jun 30@ CHC4
Jul 5@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)22.0%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)22.0%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)22.0%3.0
4. George Springer (R)22.0%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.8
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)22.0%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (R)22.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

JP Sears's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 25@ LAD3
May 31vs SF2
Jun 30vs MIA4
Jul 5vs SF7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.3%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)7.9%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.9%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.7%2.1
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.3%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)26.6%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)27.1%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)18.0%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)29.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tanner Gordon's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 25@ ATH6
Jun 7@ DET5
Jun 13@ WSH4
Jun 26@ CLE4
Jul 3vs TOR4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.0%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.1%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)22.2%3.0
4. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)22.3%2.7
5. Ryan Vilade (R)22.0%2.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.8%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)20.4%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)22.7%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luis Castillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB16.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs BOS2
Jun 15@ LAD6
Jun 21vs WSH5
Jun 26vs AZ3
Jul 3@ HOU3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.9%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.1%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.5%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)27.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.3%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)30.5%2.5
7. Cole Young (L)18.5%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)18.4%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)30.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nick Martinez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 22vs TEX5
May 28@ DET5
Jun 2vs COL3
Jun 8vs HOU6
Jun 14vs TB1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.2%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)16.6%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.1%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.3%2.9
5. Royce Lewis (R)25.7%2.0
6. Alan Roden (L)22.5%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)15.7%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)27.7%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB18.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.7 BF

Expected batters faced17.7
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24vs PHI3
Jul 4vs PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)22.3%2.0
2. Ben Rice (L)23.3%2.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (R)25.2%2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.2%2.0
5. José Caballero (R)28.8%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)28.0%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)22.1%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)28.4%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)25.4%1.7

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Carson Palmquist's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.7%
vs RHB20.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.4 BF

Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 2vs CLE5
May 8@ BAL5
May 14vs STL2
May 19@ LAA2
May 31vs NYY3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)21.4%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)22.7%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.0%2.4
4. Colson Montgomery (L)25.9%2.0
5. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0
6. Sam Antonacci (L)19.9%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (R)25.5%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)18.8%2.0
9. Drew Romo (R)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Lopez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)5.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.6 BF

Expected batters faced20.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs HOU0
Jun 17@ WSH5
Jun 23@ TB6
Jun 28@ CWS4
Jul 5vs PHI4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Adley Rutschman (L)19.2%3.0
2. Taylor Ward (R)22.2%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.0%2.6
4. Pete Alonso (R)23.1%2.0
5. Tyler O'Neill (R)25.2%2.0
6. Coby Mayo (R)29.3%2.0
7. Samuel Basallo (L)22.9%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)23.0%2.0
9. Leody Taveras (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Luinder Avila's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.1% K / BF

vs LHB17.8%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12@ CIN3
Jun 17vs LAA5
Jun 23@ STL5
Jun 29vs SF1
Jul 5vs MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.8%3.0
2. Tommy Edman (R)21.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)19.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.1%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)24.3%3.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)23.1%2.4
7. Kyle Tucker (L)20.4%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)18.9%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Eduardo Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.6 BF

Expected batters faced16.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23@ MIA1
Jun 27@ TOR5
Jul 4vs DET2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)22.0%2.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)22.0%2.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)22.0%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)22.0%2.0
5. Cam Smith (R)22.0%2.0
6. Yainer Diaz (R)22.0%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)22.0%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)22.0%1.6
9. Nick Allen (R)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cal Quantrill's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays