MatchWiz

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsTuesday, July 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, July 7, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3
1/333%
season 51%
Top 5
1/425%
season 50%
Full slate
15/2854%
season 52%

Top call Jacob deGrom came through. Justin Wrobleski didn't.

★★ Plays of the Day

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — where our model diverges a high percentage from the book's line (lineups final, so the play is locked). To date this season, strikeout PODs are hitting at a 60% ratea +9% return.

Δ1.7Tarik SkubalFinal ATH @ DETwe project 6.8 K vs the 8.5 lineUnder 8.51uMGMBetMGM-142

Purely a research signal based on this season and our model, which is continuously tuned throughout the season. Not betting advice — 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.9% K / BF

vs LHB28.8%
vs RHB26.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CLE6
Jun 13@ BOS5
Jun 19vs SD9
Jun 24@ MIA8
Jun 30@ CLE9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness25.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)29.1%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)22.0%3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R)20.1%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.9%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)25.5%2.9
6. Jo Adell (R)23.1%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)28.3%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)22.0%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-115-115
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-141+110
FANFanatics-125-105
FDFanDuel-113-113

We project 7.0 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4@ AZ4
Jun 11@ PIT1
Jun 16vs TB5
Jun 23@ MIN3
Jun 30@ ATH11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (R)24.0%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)21.4%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)17.7%3.0
4. Cole Carrigg (R)22.9%3.0
5. Tyler Freeman (R)18.9%3.0
6. Jake McCarthy (L)17.7%2.6
7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)25.9%2.0
8. Braxton Fulford (R)32.0%2.0
9. Mickey Moniak (L)27.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+128-163
FDFanDuel+122-156

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB29.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 29@ ATL7
Jun 13@ CLE4
Jun 19vs CWS8
Jun 24vs NYY9
Jun 30@ NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)23.8%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)30.7%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)20.9%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)19.7%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.3%2.9
6. Colby Thomas (R)23.2%2.0
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)18.3%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)25.4%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BOLBetOnline-154+118
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-151+118
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 6.8 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ TOR5
Jun 15vs MIA9
Jun 21vs NYM7
Jun 26@ NYM5
Jul 1vs PIT10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.7%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.8%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)21.4%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)28.1%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)27.0%3.0
6. Spencer Steer (R)24.5%2.3
7. Tyler Stephenson (R)23.3%2.0
8. TJ Friedl (L)20.3%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)28.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers+110-148
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+106-135
FDFanDuel+112-142

We project 6.9 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate34.7% K / BF

vs LHB37.9%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ COL8
Jun 12vs PHI15
Jun 19@ ATL7
Jun 26vs CHC8
Jul 2vs CIN10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.0%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)19.4%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)16.8%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)27.3%3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.6%3.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)20.4%2.7
7. Nathan Church (L)21.6%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)19.2%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ CHC6
Jun 13vs CHC4
Jun 20@ MIA1
Jun 26vs ATL3
Jul 1@ AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.6%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.5%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.2%3.0
5. Brandon Valenzuela (L)25.1%2.3
6. Daulton Varsho (L)23.1%2.0
7. Sean Keys (L)27.0%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)22.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-137+104
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-129+101
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-130+102

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%
vs RHB26.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs LAD7
Jun 14vs MIA10
Jun 20@ COL8
Jun 26vs CIN7
Jul 1@ PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)20.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)21.8%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.9%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)18.7%2.2
7. Austin Riley (R)26.2%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-101-127
FANFanatics-110-120
FDFanDuel-111-115

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ DET3
Jun 14vs STL7
Jun 20@ AZ4
Jun 26vs COL7
Jul 1@ HOU11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)21.5%3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)26.4%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.6%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.1%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%2.8
6. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.0%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.2%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.0%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+113-147
BRBetRivers+114-152
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+107-137
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+120-154

We project 5.9 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs AZ5
Jun 14@ PIT9
Jun 20vs SF7
Jun 26@ STL5
Jul 1@ COL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.4%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)23.4%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.9%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)26.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.6%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)29.8%3.0
7. Cole Young (L)18.3%2.1
8. Victor Robles (R)19.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)31.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BOLBetOnline+100-130
BRBetRivers+115-152
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+111-142
FDFanDuel+116-148

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Max Meyer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%
vs RHB27.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ TB3
Jun 16vs TOR6
Jun 21@ SEA2
Jun 26vs NYY7
Jul 1vs WSH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)17.8%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)21.8%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)25.8%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)21.0%3.0
6. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.4
7. Kyle Teel (L)25.1%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.4%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-108-120
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-120-106
FANFanatics-110-120
FDFanDuel-122-104

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ LAD2
Jun 13vs TB5
Jun 19@ ATH6
Jun 24vs BAL4
Jun 30@ SEA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.7%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)17.6%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.5%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.6%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)22.3%2.0
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)16.9%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.3%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+121-155
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ TEX7
Jun 13vs DET4
Jun 20@ HOU9
Jun 26vs SEA9
Jul 1vs TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)18.9%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (R)20.8%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)21.5%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)20.0%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (R)26.5%2.3
6. Kody Clemens (L)23.7%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)18.1%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)20.7%2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BRBetRivers-155+116
BOVBovada-165+125
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 5.4 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB27.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs MIA5
Jun 9@ SF4
Jun 15vs KC5
Jun 21@ TB6
Jun 26@ BAL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)21.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%2.7
3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.2%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.9%2.0
5. Cam Smith (R)22.9%2.0
6. Zach Dezenzo (R)25.7%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)26.8%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)19.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-115-115
DKDraftKings-124-103
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-120-104

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs MIL5
Jun 15vs PIT3
Jun 20vs LAA5
Jun 26@ LAA5
Jul 1vs LAD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.8%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)21.0%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)24.0%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)22.2%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.8%3.0
6. Zach McKinstry (L)18.2%2.4
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.8%2.0
8. James Outman (L)35.5%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-139+106
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-134+105
FDFanDuel-146+114

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB25.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5@ DET7
Jun 11@ BAL4
Jun 18vs BAL9
Jun 24@ PIT4
Jun 30vs LAA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)12.6%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)28.8%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)15.3%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)12.5%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)27.4%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)33.3%2.3
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.3%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+123-165
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+119-152
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+114-146

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 22vs PHI5
Apr 27@ SD4
May 3vs AZ5
Jun 25@ NYM4
Jun 30vs SD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)20.8%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)16.9%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.7%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)25.4%2.9
5. Coby Mayo (R)23.9%2.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)26.9%2.0
7. Blaze Alexander (R)23.8%2.0
8. Dylan Beavers (L)22.4%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-158+124
FANFanatics-165+125
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB27.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs ATH8
Jun 12@ KC1
Jun 19vs CLE11
Jun 25@ DET10
Jul 1vs MIN2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.4%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)21.2%2.9
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.4%2.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.9%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)17.7%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.4%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-124-107
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-125-102
FDFanDuel-125-102

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ TOR3
Jun 12vs SD1
Jun 18@ SEA9
Jun 23@ LAA5
Jun 29vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.6%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)24.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)27.4%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.9%3.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)25.0%2.4
8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.0%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+116-148
FDFanDuel+110-140

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.1 BF

Expected batters faced19.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs MIA2
Jun 8vs BOS5
Jun 20vs WSH4
Jul 2@ KC8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)22.2%3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)18.6%2.1
3. Ben Rice (L)24.1%2.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)19.8%2.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%2.0
6. José Caballero (R)27.1%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.3%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-108-124
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-121-105
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2vs STL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)19.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.1%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)29.5%2.8
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.4%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.4%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)30.4%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)23.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-114-117
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-119-107
FDFanDuel-108-118

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Hurston Waldrep's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.7% K / BF

vs LHB15.5%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ MIA3
Jun 14@ CIN4
Jun 20vs MIN2
Jun 26@ TB0
Jul 1vs SF4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.4%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)25.0%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.1%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)22.9%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)20.9%3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L)24.1%2.9
7. Luis Campusano (R)22.8%2.0
8. Samad Taylor (R)25.3%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)18.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-164+125
BRBetRivers-175+128
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-147+115
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-148+116

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 30@ PIT4
Jun 11@ NYM5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.3%3.0
2. Luis Lara (L)22.0%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. Andrew Vaughn (R)18.2%2.4
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.7%2.0
6. Gary Sánchez (R)21.9%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)13.7%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.3%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-118-110
BRBetRivers-148+110
DKDraftKings-117-109
FANFanatics-125-105

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Hunter Dobbins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload15.7 BF

Expected batters faced15.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 10vs LAA2
May 31@ BAL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.7%2.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.8%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.3%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.6%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)25.4%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.9%1.7
8. Victor Bericoto (R)19.4%1.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140

We project 3.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Miles's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ CLE5
Jun 14@ TOR1
Jun 20vs CIN8
Jun 26@ BOS0
Jul 1vs DET7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.9%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.2%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%3.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.1%2.4
7. Taylor Walls (L)22.5%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.4%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-105-125
BOLBetOnline+110-143
BRBetRivers-104-129
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-104-123
FANFanatics+100-130
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 6@ LAA3
May 13vs KC3
May 18@ SEA6
May 24@ SF1
Jul 1@ BAL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)18.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)19.9%2.9
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)23.1%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.2%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)23.6%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.0%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)21.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-123-105
BRBetRivers-118-113
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-122-104
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB22.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs SF5
Jun 9@ ATH7
Jun 16vs CLE5
Jun 21@ ATL7
Jun 29vs CIN5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.8%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)21.4%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)20.9%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)17.9%2.5
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.5%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)15.9%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)19.0%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-160+120
BRBetRivers-162+120
DKDraftKings-144+113

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4@ MIN4
Jun 10vs TEX2
Jun 19vs STL0
Jun 25@ TB3
Jul 1vs TB7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)23.4%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.1%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.5%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)20.9%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.6%3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)19.1%2.1
7. Jared Young (L)21.3%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.1%2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline+105-135
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-101-126
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 4.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ SD6
Jun 14vs AZ5
Jun 20@ NYY6
Jun 26@ PIT6
Jul 1@ MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)20.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)23.9%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)18.1%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.3%3.0
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.2%2.4
7. Bryson Stott (L)20.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)29.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-150+112
DKDraftKings-152+119
FANFanatics-150+115

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.8%
vs RHB18.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs CHC7
Jun 15@ CHC5
Jun 21vs PIT5
Jun 27@ MIN1
Jul 2vs MIA1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)20.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.3%3.0
4. Max Muncy (L)20.4%3.0
5. Tommy Edman (L)22.0%2.6
6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.3%2.0
7. Dalton Rushing (L)26.2%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)25.1%2.0
9. Miguel Rojas (R)15.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BRBetRivers-127-105
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-133+104
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 3.6 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.1 BF

Expected batters faced14.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.3%2.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.0%2.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%2.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.1%2.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.7%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.9%1.1
7. Sal Frelick (L)13.7%1.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.3%1.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matt Svanson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 6@ PIT4
Apr 11vs COL5
Apr 18@ LAA5
Apr 25@ AZ2
May 1vs CWS2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%2.7
5. Max Kepler (L)21.4%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L)20.7%2.0
8. James McCann (R)22.0%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.6 BF

Expected batters faced14.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 28vs PHI2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)22.6%2.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)14.8%2.0
3. Lane Thomas (R)23.4%2.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)19.5%2.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)27.1%2.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)17.2%1.6
7. Isaac Collins (R)21.4%1.0
8. Michael Massey (L)24.8%1.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)18.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cionel Pérez's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.