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Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsTuesday, July 7, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Tuesday, July 7, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61%a +10% return.

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 25 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB29.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)24.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 29@ ATL7
Jun 13@ CLE4
Jun 19vs CWS8
Jun 24vs NYY9
Jun 30@ NYY9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Henry Bolte (R)22.0%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)22.0%3.0
3. Zack Gelof (R)22.0%3.0
4. Lawrence Butler (L)22.0%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%2.9
6. Carlos Cortes (L)22.0%2.0
7. Max Muncy (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jonah Heim (R)22.0%2.0
9. Brian Serven (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate34.7% K / BF

vs LHB37.9%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ COL8
Jun 12vs PHI15
Jun 19@ ATL7
Jun 26vs CHC8
Jul 2vs CIN10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)16.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)19.0%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)27.3%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)20.7%3.0
5. José Fermín (R)19.4%3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)18.5%2.7
7. Nathan Church (L)21.3%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)18.0%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob Misiorowski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%
vs RHB27.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs LAD7
Jun 14vs MIA10
Jun 20@ COL8
Jun 26vs CIN7
Jul 1@ PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)17.6%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)22.2%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.7%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)18.3%2.2
7. Austin Riley (R)26.4%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.4%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.9% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ DET3
Jun 14vs STL7
Jun 20@ AZ4
Jun 26vs COL7
Jul 1@ HOU11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)22.0%3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)22.0%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)22.0%3.0
5. Gabriel Arias (R)22.0%2.8
6. Cooper Ingle (L)22.0%2.0
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)22.0%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)22.0%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.9%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs AZ5
Jun 14@ PIT9
Jun 20vs SF7
Jun 26@ STL5
Jul 1@ COL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)22.0%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.0%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L)22.0%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)22.0%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)22.0%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)22.0%3.0
7. Mitch Garver (R)22.0%2.1
8. Colt Emerson (L)22.0%2.0
9. Victor Robles (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Meyer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CLE6
Jun 13@ BOS5
Jun 19vs SD9
Jun 24@ MIA8
Jun 30@ CLE9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness25.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)29.4%3.0
2. Denzer Guzman (R)20.0%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)19.1%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.8%3.0
5. Oswald Peraza (R)28.6%2.9
6. Jo Adell (R)23.9%2.0
7. Jose Siri (R)23.5%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)26.4%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)25.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jacob deGrom's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ TEX7
Jun 13vs DET4
Jun 20@ HOU9
Jun 26vs SEA9
Jul 1vs TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)22.0%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)22.0%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)22.0%3.0
4. Josh Bell (R)22.0%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)22.0%2.3
6. Victor Caratini (R)22.0%2.0
7. Brooks Lee (R)22.0%2.0
8. Ryan Kreidler (R)22.0%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4@ AZ4
Jun 11@ PIT1
Jun 16vs TB5
Jun 23@ MIN3
Jun 30@ ATH11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.4%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)27.7%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.2%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)18.0%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)19.7%3.0
6. Kyle Karros (R)22.4%2.6
7. Edouard Julien (L)25.7%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)19.7%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Justin Wrobleski's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.1 BF

Expected batters faced19.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs MIA2
Jun 8vs BOS5
Jun 20vs WSH4
Jul 2@ KC8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)22.2%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)24.0%2.1
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)18.5%2.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.2%2.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)25.7%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.7%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)27.0%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)28.3%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.0%
vs RHB27.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.7 BF

Expected batters faced19.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs MIA5
Jun 9@ SF4
Jun 15vs KC5
Jun 21@ TB6
Jun 26@ BAL5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)21.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%2.7
3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.2%2.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.9%2.0
5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)20.7%2.0
6. Cam Smith (R)22.9%2.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)21.6%2.0
8. Braden Shewmake (L)21.3%2.0
9. Brice Matthews (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Alvarez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB27.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6vs ATH8
Jun 12@ KC1
Jun 19vs CLE11
Jun 25@ DET10
Jul 1vs MIN2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.8%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.1%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)20.8%2.9
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.1%2.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)24.4%2.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)17.8%2.0
7. Jacob Young (R)20.2%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)20.9%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tatsuya Imai's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB23.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs MIL5
Jun 15vs PIT3
Jun 20vs LAA5
Jun 26@ LAA5
Jul 1vs LAD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.0%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.0%3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L)22.0%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)22.0%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)22.0%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)22.0%2.4
7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.0%2.0
8. Jake Rogers (R)22.0%2.0
9. James Outman (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ LAD2
Jun 13vs TB5
Jun 19@ ATH6
Jun 24vs BAL4
Jun 30@ SEA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)22.0%3.0
2. Jake Burger (R)22.0%3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.0%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.0%3.0
5. Evan Carter (L)22.0%3.0
6. Elias Díaz (R)22.0%2.0
7. Josh Smith (L)22.0%2.0
8. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 22vs PHI5
Apr 27@ SD4
May 3vs AZ5
Jun 25@ NYM4
Jun 30vs SD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.0%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)22.0%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)22.0%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)22.0%2.9
5. Coby Mayo (R)22.0%2.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.0%2.0
7. Leody Taveras (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.0%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.0% K / BF

vs LHB16.7%
vs RHB26.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ TB3
Jun 16vs TOR6
Jun 21@ SEA2
Jun 26vs NYY7
Jul 1vs WSH5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)22.0%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)22.0%3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L)22.0%3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.0%3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L)22.0%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.0%2.4
7. Chase Meidroth (R)22.0%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)22.0%2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ TOR3
Jun 12vs SD1
Jun 18@ SEA9
Jun 23@ LAA5
Jun 29vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)22.0%3.0
3. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.0%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)22.0%3.0
5. Michael Busch (L)22.0%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)22.0%3.0
7. Ian Happ (L)22.0%2.4
8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.0%2.0
9. Kevin Alcántara (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ CLE5
Jun 14@ TOR1
Jun 20vs CIN8
Jun 26@ BOS0
Jul 1vs DET7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.8%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.6%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)20.8%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)21.6%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)18.3%3.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L)12.0%2.4
7. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.7%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 6@ LAA3
May 13vs KC3
May 18@ SEA6
May 24@ SF1
Jul 1@ BAL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)18.3%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)22.0%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.5%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)19.9%2.9
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.3%2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R)15.1%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.0%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ SD6
Jun 14vs AZ5
Jun 20@ NYY6
Jun 26@ PIT6
Jul 1@ MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)20.6%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)25.7%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)23.8%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)18.3%3.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)29.1%3.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)22.5%2.4
7. Bryson Stott (L)20.8%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)18.3%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)30.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.9% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 4@ MIN4
Jun 10vs TEX2
Jun 19vs STL0
Jun 25@ TB3
Jul 1vs TB7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)21.5%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.6%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.8%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)20.9%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)20.4%3.0
6. Jared Young (L)21.4%2.1
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)27.6%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)22.1%2.0
9. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2vs STL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Konnor Griffin (R)22.0%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.0%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)22.0%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%2.8
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.0%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)22.0%2.0
7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.0%2.0
8. Tyler Callihan (L)22.0%2.0
9. Jake Mangum (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Hurston Waldrep's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ CHC6
Jun 13vs CHC4
Jun 20@ MIA1
Jun 26vs ATL3
Jul 1@ AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.9%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.9%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.9%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.3%3.0
5. Sean Keys (L)22.0%2.3
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)16.2%2.0
7. Daulton Varsho (L)22.9%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)16.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate15.7% K / BF

vs LHB15.5%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ MIA3
Jun 14@ CIN4
Jun 20vs MIN2
Jun 26@ TB0
Jul 1vs SF4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.2%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)24.1%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.3%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)21.0%3.0
5. Ty France (R)23.0%3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.7%2.9
7. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.2%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.0%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zac Gallen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.2%
vs RHB18.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs CHC7
Jun 15@ CHC5
Jun 21vs PIT5
Jun 27@ MIN1
Jul 2vs MIA1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)21.0%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)15.0%3.0
5. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.6%2.6
6. Alex Call (R)19.5%2.0
7. Miguel Rojas (R)15.8%2.0
8. Alex Freeland (L)24.9%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.9% K / BF

vs LHB17.7%
vs RHB18.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 6@ PIT4
Apr 11vs COL5
Apr 18@ LAA5
Apr 25@ AZ2
May 1vs CWS2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)14.9%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.9%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.8%2.7
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.1%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.1%2.0
7. Tim Tawa (R)22.9%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)19.7%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +10% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.