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Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 61% — a +11% return.

3:45 PM ETTORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup1006:35 PM ETCHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup486:40 PM ETATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup666:40 PM ETATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup346:40 PM ETSEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup426:40 PM ETNYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup406:45 PM ETHOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup447:10 PM ETKCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup477:10 PM ETPHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup887:40 PM ETBOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup447:40 PM ETCLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup657:45 PM ETMILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup588:05 PM ETLAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup7610:10 PM ETAZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup3710:10 PM ETCOLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup24
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 29 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate33.0% K / BF

vs LHB31.8%
vs RHB30.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs PHI11
Jun 16@ BOS7
Jun 22vs HOU8
Jun 27vs TEX10
Jul 3@ SEA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.7%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)8.3%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.8%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.3%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.6%2.9
6. Willy Adames (R)25.4%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.9%2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ SD7
Jun 15vs NYM7
Jun 21@ NYY7
Jun 27@ PIT10
Jul 2@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)23.2%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)20.4%3.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)16.9%3.0
5. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.9%2.9
6. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.8%2.0
7. Bryson Stott (L)19.0%2.0
8. Derek Hill (R)27.7%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ KC6
Jun 15vs MIN10
Jun 20vs SD6
Jun 25@ TOR5
Jul 1@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.3%3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.1%3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R)29.6%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)23.1%3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L)25.8%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)19.1%2.8
7. Oswald Peraza (R)26.4%2.0
8. Wade Meckler (L)25.1%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3@ TB5
Jun 9vs MIN5
Jun 20vs CWS5
Jun 25vs HOU6
Jul 1@ NYY7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)23.0%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)29.3%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)24.1%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L)21.2%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)16.4%3.0
6. Colby Thomas (R)25.8%2.4
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)30.2%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs CWS7
Jun 7vs KC7
Jun 13vs STL2
Jun 19@ AZ4
Jun 28vs COL10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)23.4%3.0
2. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)18.8%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.3%3.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)29.7%3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.7%2.6
7. Daniel Schneemann (L)25.3%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (R)25.8%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ ATH4
Jun 14vs PHI3
Jun 20@ ATL7
Jun 27vs CHC9
Jul 3@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.8%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.9%3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R)21.4%2.8
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.6%2.0
6. Bryan Torres (L)20.4%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)19.7%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)15.9%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)24.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 13vs AZ9
Apr 18@ CLE7
Jul 1vs CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.6%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)24.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)27.4%2.6
6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.9%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)25.0%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)22.0%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 30vs MIA8
Jun 5@ SD3
Jun 11vs STL6
Jun 27vs PHI6
Jul 3@ ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)27.5%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.2%3.0
3. Lane Thomas (R)24.0%3.0
4. Salvador Perez (R)23.3%2.9
5. Jac Caglianone (L)26.2%2.0
6. Nick Loftin (R)16.6%2.0
7. Isaac Collins (L)22.8%2.0
8. Michael Massey (L)16.3%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)23.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB26.9%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ SF5
Jun 16vs KC6
Jun 22vs PHI9
Jun 27@ BAL9
Jul 3vs PIT2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)21.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.4%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)18.2%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.9%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)22.9%2.9
6. Zach Dezenzo (R)25.7%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)26.8%2.0
8. Nick Allen (R)19.8%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs ATL6
Jun 16@ NYY4
Jun 21@ DET4
Jun 27vs KC3
Jul 2@ CLE0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)21.5%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.6%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)25.1%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)24.1%3.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R)23.0%2.9
6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.8%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)27.2%2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.2%2.0
9. Connor Wong (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ LAA7
Jun 14@ KC7
Jun 20vs CLE8
Jun 26@ DET7
Jul 3vs TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)26.4%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)21.2%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.4%3.0
5. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.9%2.7
6. Daylen Lile (L)17.7%2.0
7. Nasim Nuñez (L)25.5%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.4%2.0
9. Jacob Young (R)19.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs NYM5
Jun 10@ BAL10
Jun 17vs BAL5
Jun 23@ PIT5
Jun 29vs LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)12.6%3.0
2. Kyle Stowers (L)28.8%3.0
3. Otto Lopez (R)15.3%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)12.5%3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L)27.4%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)33.3%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.3%2.3
8. Joe Mack (L)22.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ CLE4
Jun 16vs CWS6
Jun 22@ DET5
Jun 27@ BOS5
Jul 3vs MIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)18.1%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.9%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)20.3%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.2%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%2.8
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)23.1%2.0
7. Taylor Walls (L)22.5%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.4%2.0
9. Hunter Feduccia (L)26.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ MIA6
Jun 12@ LAA7
Jun 17@ LAD3
Jun 23vs KC4
Jul 1@ KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)22.2%3.0
2. Paul Goldschmidt (R)18.6%3.0
3. Ben Rice (L)24.1%3.0
4. Amed Rosario (R)19.8%3.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)17.3%2.3
6. José Caballero (R)27.1%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.3%2.0
8. Max Schuemann (R)22.0%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs MIN3
Jun 27@ TB4
Jul 3vs MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.4%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)24.1%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)22.9%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)20.9%3.0
5. Ty France (R)22.3%2.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)25.0%2.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)25.3%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)18.6%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jose Cabrera's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ TB4
Jun 17vs TOR5
Jun 22@ COL9
Jun 27vs NYY3
Jul 3@ LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)17.8%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)21.8%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)25.8%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)21.9%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)21.0%2.7
6. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0
7. Kyle Teel (L)25.1%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)19.4%2.0
9. Tristan Peters (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs HOU7
Jun 15@ AZ3
Jun 20@ ATH6
Jun 26vs ATH5
Jul 2@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.7%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)17.6%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.5%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.6%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)22.3%2.5
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)16.9%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.3%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs LAD4
Jun 15@ ATH4
Jun 21@ COL3
Jun 27vs CIN4
Jul 2@ PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)20.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.3%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.4%2.7
4. Drake Baldwin (L)21.8%2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)15.9%2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)18.7%2.0
7. Austin Riley (R)26.2%2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0
9. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs ATH3
Jun 9@ COL2
Jun 20vs TOR3
Jun 26@ MIL4
Jul 1vs SD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)23.1%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)20.0%3.0
3. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.9%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.2%3.0
5. Coby Mayo (R)30.5%3.0
6. Samuel Basallo (L)22.4%2.3
7. Blaze Alexander (R)23.5%2.0
8. Dylan Beavers (L)24.0%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.6%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs TOR4
Jun 9@ CWS2
Jun 16vs SF2
Jun 22@ SD4
Jul 3vs NYM2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)19.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.1%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)29.5%2.2
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.4%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.4%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)30.4%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)23.7%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs WSH7
Jun 14vs CHC7
Jun 21@ MIA5
Jun 27vs ATL6
Jul 3@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.6%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)15.5%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0
4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.2%3.0
5. Sean Keys (L)22.0%3.0
6. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.6%2.6
7. Daulton Varsho (L)23.1%2.0
8. Myles Straw (R)15.4%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs MIL3
Jun 14vs COL5
Jun 19vs LAA4
Jun 25@ SF6
Jun 30vs LAD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.7%3.0
2. Colt Keith (L)19.8%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)26.4%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.2%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)21.3%2.6
6. Zach McKinstry (L)20.7%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.3%2.0
8. James Outman (L)25.0%2.0
9. Matt Vierling (R)17.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs CIN3
Jun 16@ STL1
Jun 22vs ATL5
Jun 28vs LAD5
Jul 3@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.8%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.7%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.4%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.6%3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)18.2%3.0
6. Max Kepler (L)21.4%2.4
7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.2%2.0
8. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.0%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs LAA10
Jun 12@ CWS4
Jun 19vs BAL6
Jun 26@ SD2
Jul 2vs SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Willi Castro (L)25.7%3.0
2. Kyle Karros (R)22.1%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.6%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)16.0%3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (L)19.4%2.3
6. Tyler Freeman (R)15.2%2.0
7. Jake McCarthy (L)18.7%2.0
8. Troy Johnston (L)17.7%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)20.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.3%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.7%2.7
5. Kyle Tucker (L)19.3%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.8%2.0
7. Max Muncy (L)20.4%2.0
8. Miguel Rojas (R)15.7%2.0
9. Dalton Rushing (L)26.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CIN5
Jun 14@ MIN2
Jun 19@ KC2
Jun 26vs MIA4
Jul 1@ ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.3%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)24.0%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.1%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.7%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.9%2.1
7. Sal Frelick (L)13.7%2.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R)19.3%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.0% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%
vs RHB17.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs AZ5
Jun 16@ PHI4
Jun 22vs TEX4
Jun 28@ STL1
Jul 3@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)23.4%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)23.4%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)21.9%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)26.7%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.6%2.1
6. Luke Raley (L)29.8%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)18.3%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)19.3%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)31.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs NYY7
Jun 16@ MIL4
Jun 21@ HOU1
Jun 27vs SEA4
Jul 2vs CWS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)19.2%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)17.1%3.0
3. Josh Bell (L)21.0%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)26.5%3.0
5. Victor Caratini (L)16.6%2.8
6. Kody Clemens (L)21.9%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.2%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)15.8%2.0
9. Kyler Fedko (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ CWS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)23.4%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.1%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.5%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)20.9%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.6%1.8
6. Jorge Polanco (L)19.1%1.0
7. Jared Young (L)21.3%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)23.1%1.0
9. Luis Torrens (R)22.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Steven Cruz's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 61% at a +11% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays