MatchWiz
Scores Plays of the Day

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Wednesday, July 8, 2026 slate — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, July 8, 2026

Our top 3 starts went 1/3 (33%) on our strikeout over/under, against 51% on the season.

Top 3
1/333%
season 51%
Top 5
3/560%
season 49%
Full slate
15/2854%
season 52%

Top call Chase Burns came through. Dylan Cease didn't.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

Final · 10–0TORTORawaySFSFhomeTop matchup100Final · 9–7CHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup51Final · 1–6ATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup60Final · 3–0ATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup41Final · 0–2SEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup45Final · 0–3NYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup46Final · 2–8HOUHOUawayWSHWSHhomeTop matchup51Final · 2–6KCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup54Final · 5–11PHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup100Final · 5–0BOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup45Final · 5–6CLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup87Final · 1–5MILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup76Final · 13–1LAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup94Final · 4–10AZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup43Final · 3–4COLCOLawayLADLADhomeTop matchup26
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate32.7% K / BF

vs LHB31.8%
vs RHB29.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs PHI11
Jun 16@ BOS7
Jun 22vs HOU8
Jun 27vs TEX10
Jul 3@ SEA9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.9%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)8.1%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.1%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.4%2.9
6. Willy Adames (R)26.2%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.3%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.6%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+128-167
BRBetRivers+120-162
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+118-150
FDFanDuel+124-158

We project 6.4 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Dylan Cease's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.9% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ SD7
Jun 15vs NYM7
Jun 21@ NYY7
Jun 27@ PIT10
Jul 2@ MIL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Bryce Harper (L)20.5%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L)23.4%3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L)18.9%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)16.8%2.9
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.5%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+110-150
BRBetRivers+118-157
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings-101-126
FANFanatics+120-160
FDFanDuel+126-162

We project 6.3 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Chase Burns's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.5% K / BF

vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB25.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ KC6
Jun 15vs MIN10
Jun 20vs SD6
Jun 25@ TOR5
Jul 1@ CLE7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.3%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)22.0%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)22.0%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)19.0%3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R)29.6%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)27.2%2.8
7. Jose Siri (R)22.0%2.0
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)21.9%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-145+111
BRBetRivers-157+118
BOVBovada-150+115
DKDraftKings-153+120
FDFanDuel-150+118

We project 6.4 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs CWS7
Jun 7vs KC7
Jun 13vs STL2
Jun 19@ AZ4
Jun 28vs COL10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. David Fry (R)27.6%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)18.6%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (R)22.0%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)30.1%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)23.5%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)27.6%2.6
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)23.3%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)18.7%2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-150+110
BOLBetOnline-164+125
BRBetRivers-155+115
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-163+127
FDFanDuel-154+120

We project 6.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Connor Prielipp's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.3% K / BF

vs LHB25.7%
vs RHB27.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ ATH4
Jun 14vs PHI3
Jun 20@ ATL7
Jun 27vs CHC9
Jul 3@ AZ3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)20.9%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)18.1%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)20.8%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)21.1%2.8
5. Alec Burleson (L)18.1%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)15.3%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)18.1%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)22.6%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)26.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+120-160
BOLBetOnline+125-164
BRBetRivers+112-150
BOVBovada+120-160
DKDraftKings+125-160
FDFanDuel+120-154

We project 5.5 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Kyle Harrison's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3@ TB5
Jun 9vs MIN5
Jun 20vs CWS5
Jun 25vs HOU6
Jul 1@ NYY7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)24.3%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)23.9%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)17.2%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)17.0%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)24.1%2.4
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)20.0%2.0
8. Carlos Cortes (L)17.2%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-145+111
BRBetRivers-165+123
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-158+123
FANFanatics-150+115
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 5.1 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Troy Melton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.2%
vs RHB23.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 30vs MIA8
Jun 5@ SD3
Jun 11vs STL6
Jun 27vs PHI6
Jul 3@ ATL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)27.3%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.5%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)27.3%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)23.9%2.9
5. Salvador Perez (R)22.7%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)16.6%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)16.3%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (L)22.1%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-120-108
BRBetRivers-129-104
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-133+104
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-136+106

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Christian Scott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ LAA7
Jun 14@ KC7
Jun 20vs CLE8
Jun 26@ DET7
Jul 3vs TB4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)25.6%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.9%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)20.8%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)20.5%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)18.9%2.7
6. Dylan Crews (R)23.6%2.0
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)16.9%2.0
8. José Tena (L)24.7%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-134+100
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-135+106
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-130+102

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 13vs AZ9
Apr 18@ CLE7
Jul 1vs CWS4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.0%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.2%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)23.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)26.8%2.6
6. Nico Hoerner (R)12.1%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)25.0%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)18.3%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-155+115
BOLBetOnline-135+105
DKDraftKings-162+127
FANFanatics-150+115

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Dean Kremer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.3 BF

Expected batters faced22.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ MIA6
Jun 12@ LAA7
Jun 17@ LAD3
Jun 23vs KC4
Jul 1@ KC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.0%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.8%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)21.0%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)18.8%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (R)26.1%2.3
6. Anthony Volpe (R)23.0%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)22.7%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)25.2%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)29.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-111-116
BRBetRivers-109-122
BOVBovada-110-120
DKDraftKings-113-112
FDFanDuel-106-120

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Shane McClanahan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs NYM5
Jun 10@ BAL10
Jun 17vs BAL5
Jun 23@ PIT5
Jun 29vs LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)12.3%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.0%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)13.3%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)29.1%3.0
5. Owen Caissie (L)32.5%3.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.0%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.2%2.3
8. Joe Mack (L)21.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-145+105
BOLBetOnline-149+115
BRBetRivers-152+114
BOVBovada-160+120
DKDraftKings-151+118
FDFanDuel-156+122

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

George Kirby's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ TB4
Jun 17vs TOR5
Jun 22@ COL9
Jun 27vs NYY3
Jul 3@ LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)18.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)23.2%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)21.4%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)20.3%2.7
6. Braden Montgomery (R)25.9%2.0
7. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L)25.6%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+105-140
BOLBetOnline-103-125
BRBetRivers-107-125
BOVBovada+105-135
DKDraftKings+100-128
FANFanatics+105-140
FDFanDuel+104-132

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jake Bennett's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.0%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs ATL6
Jun 16@ NYY4
Jun 21@ DET4
Jun 27vs KC3
Jul 2@ CLE0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (L)22.1%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)26.0%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)25.0%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)14.8%2.9
6. Caleb Durbin (R)17.6%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)27.3%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)28.1%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-130+100
BRBetRivers-132+100
BOVBovada-135+105
DKDraftKings-141+110
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 21vs MIN3
Jun 27@ TB4
Jul 3vs MIL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.3%3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.5%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L)19.9%3.0
5. Ty France (R)22.6%2.2
6. Jackson Merrill (L)24.9%2.0
7. Samad Taylor (R)25.6%2.0
8. Sung-Mun Song (L)18.1%2.0
9. Rodolfo Durán (R)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline-130+101
BRBetRivers-122-109
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-120-106
FANFanatics-130+100
FDFanDuel-138+108

We project 5.0 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jose Cabrera's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.4% K / BF

vs LHB26.3%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ SF5
Jun 16vs KC6
Jun 22vs PHI9
Jun 27@ BAL9
Jul 3vs PIT2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.6%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.3%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)20.8%3.0
5. Cam Smith (R)21.8%2.9
6. Yainer Diaz (R)21.6%2.0
7. Brice Matthews (R)26.0%2.0
8. Zach Dezenzo (R)25.7%2.0
9. Nick Allen (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BOLBetOnline+124-161
BRBetRivers+110-148
DKDraftKings+127-163

We project 4.9 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Foster Griffin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB24.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs HOU7
Jun 15@ AZ3
Jun 20@ ATH6
Jun 26vs ATH5
Jul 2@ SEA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)21.3%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)17.0%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)23.3%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.5%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)20.4%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)22.7%2.5
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)16.4%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.1%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline-108-120
BRBetRivers-103-130
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-112-114
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-115-111

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Walbert Ureña's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.2% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs LAD4
Jun 15@ ATH4
Jun 21@ COL3
Jun 27vs CIN4
Jul 2@ PHI6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.7%2.7
4. Drake Baldwin (L)20.3%2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.4%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)26.2%2.0
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)22.6%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-148+110
BOVBovada-145+110
DKDraftKings-153+120
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-142+112

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 2vs PIT4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.6%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)22.3%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.9%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.2%2.1
5. Spencer Steer (R)24.0%2.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)21.6%2.0
7. Jose Trevino (R)17.1%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+103-133
BOVBovada+110-145
DKDraftKings+102-130
FDFanDuel+108-138

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Alan Rangel's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.3%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ CLE4
Jun 16vs CWS6
Jun 22@ DET5
Jun 27@ BOS5
Jul 3vs MIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.6%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)20.4%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)21.2%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.7%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)17.8%2.8
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.9%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)21.0%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L)22.2%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-140+105
BOLBetOnline-135+105
BRBetRivers-150+112
DKDraftKings-141+111
FANFanatics-150+115

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Gerrit Cole's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs TOR4
Jun 9@ CWS2
Jun 16vs SF2
Jun 22@ SD4
Jul 3vs NYM2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)19.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.4%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)29.4%2.2
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.0%2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.1%2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.5%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)23.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-135+100
BOLBetOnline-130+101
BRBetRivers-136+102
BOVBovada-130+100
DKDraftKings-142+111
FDFanDuel-128+100

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Grant Holmes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs WSH7
Jun 14vs CHC7
Jun 21@ MIA5
Jun 27vs ATL6
Jul 3@ COL2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)12.3%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.6%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0
4. George Springer (R)21.8%3.0
5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.6%3.0
6. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.4%2.6
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)16.0%2.0
8. Jonatan Clase (L)24.0%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-125-105
BOLBetOnline-119-109
BRBetRivers-127-105
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-121-106
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-122-104

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 3vs ATH3
Jun 9@ COL2
Jun 20vs TOR3
Jun 26@ MIL4
Jul 1vs SD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.5%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)19.8%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)22.8%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.3%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.2%3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)24.0%2.3
7. Colton Cowser (L)26.9%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)23.3%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
BOVBovada+130-170
DKDraftKings+130-166
FDFanDuel+130-166

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Colin Rea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs CIN3
Jun 16@ STL1
Jun 22vs ATL5
Jun 28vs LAD5
Jul 3@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.7%3.0
2. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.0%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.3%3.0
5. Max Kepler (L)22.1%3.0
6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.1%2.4
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.2%2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L)21.2%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-110-120
BOLBetOnline-105-123
BRBetRivers-106-127
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-109-117
FDFanDuel-111-115

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael King's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB16.9%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs CIN5
Jun 14@ MIN2
Jun 19@ KC2
Jun 26vs MIA4
Jul 1@ ATL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.9%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)26.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.3%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.8%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.1
7. Cooper Pratt (R)18.3%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)20.4%2.0
9. Greg Jones (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-120-110
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-110-121
BOVBovada-125-105
DKDraftKings-118-108
FANFanatics-115-115
FDFanDuel-122-104

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Michael McGreevy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs MIL3
Jun 14vs COL5
Jun 19vs LAA4
Jun 25@ SF6
Jun 30vs LAD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)16.8%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)21.7%3.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.4%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)23.2%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)26.1%2.6
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.9%2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)26.3%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)20.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BOLBetOnline+115-149
BRBetRivers-112-120
BOVBovada-105-125
DKDraftKings-103-124
FDFanDuel-104-122

We project 4.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Jeffrey Springs's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)21.9%3.0
2. Tommy Edman (L)19.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.5%2.7
5. Max Muncy (L)21.0%2.0
6. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.6%2.0
7. Kyle Tucker (L)19.5%2.0
8. Alex Call (R)19.3%2.0
9. Eliezer Alfonzo (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gabriel Hughes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 5vs LAA10
Jun 12@ CWS4
Jun 19vs BAL6
Jun 26@ SD2
Jul 2vs SD3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.7%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)23.3%3.0
3. Cole Carrigg (L)19.3%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)15.9%3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)21.8%2.3
6. Troy Johnston (L)17.8%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)23.5%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.8%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-115-115
BOLBetOnline-125-103
BRBetRivers-120-112
BOVBovada-120-110
DKDraftKings-125-102
FANFanatics-120-110
FDFanDuel-120-106

We project 4.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Roki Sasaki's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.4% K / BF

vs LHB19.8%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs NYY7
Jun 16@ MIL4
Jun 21@ HOU1
Jun 27vs SEA4
Jul 2vs CWS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.0%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.6%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.2%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)16.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)15.6%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)25.4%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM-130-105
BOLBetOnline-143+110
BRBetRivers-152+114
BOVBovada-165+125
DKDraftKings-156+122
FANFanatics-145+110
FDFanDuel-162+126

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Slade Cecconi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.8% K / BF

vs LHB18.2%
vs RHB17.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs AZ5
Jun 16@ PHI4
Jun 22vs TEX4
Jun 28@ STL1
Jul 3@ ATH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)24.5%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.4%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)27.3%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.2%2.1
6. Luke Raley (L)29.3%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)17.9%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)18.8%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)31.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
BOLBetOnline+120-156
BRBetRivers+112-150
BOVBovada+115-150
DKDraftKings+117-149
FANFanatics+115-150
FDFanDuel+116-148

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.7% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB22.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 26@ CWS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.9%2.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.4%2.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.0%2.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)21.0%2.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.7%1.8
6. Jorge Polanco (L)20.3%1.0
7. Jared Young (L)20.7%1.0
8. Brett Baty (L)22.6%1.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)26.4%1.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Steven Cruz's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays