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Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, July 9, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, July 9, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

12:35 PM ETATLATLawayPITPIThomeTop matchup391:10 PM ETKCKCawayNYMNYMhomeTop matchup301:10 PM ETNYYNYYawayTBTBhomeTop matchup521:35 PM ETCHCCHCawayBALBALhomeTop matchup211:40 PM ETCLECLEawayMINMINhomeTop matchup492:10 PM ETBOSBOSawayCWSCWShomeTop matchup356:40 PM ETATHATHawayDETDEThomeTop matchup396:40 PM ETSEASEAawayMIAMIAhomeTop matchup587:10 PM ETPHIPHIawayCINCINhomeTop matchup937:45 PM ETMILMILawaySTLSTLhomeTop matchup578:05 PM ETLAALAAawayTEXTEXhomeTop matchup1009:40 PM ETAZAZawaySDSDhomeTop matchup229:45 PM ETCOLCOLawaySFSFhomeTop matchup10
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 24 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB26.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ KC3
Jun 14@ BOS6
Jun 21vs SD9
Jun 26@ TOR9
Jul 2vs DET9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.9%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)25.3%3.0
3. Vaughn Grissom (R)18.7%3.0
4. Jo Adell (R)22.6%3.0
5. Denzer Guzman (R)21.2%3.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)27.6%3.0
7. Jose Siri (R)23.1%2.6
8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.8%2.0
9. Josh Lowe (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Nathan Eovaldi's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.3% K / BF

vs LHB30.0%
vs RHB27.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ TOR8
Jun 16vs MIA9
Jun 23@ WSH13
Jun 28@ NYM6
Jul 4@ KC9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.8%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)23.1%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.6%3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R)27.2%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)18.3%3.0
6. Noelvi Marte (R)27.6%3.0
7. Jose Trevino (R)19.8%2.1
8. Edwin Arroyo (R)22.0%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs HOU9
Jun 16@ AZ3
Jun 21@ ATH4
Jun 27vs ATH8
Jul 3vs BOS5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)27.6%3.0
2. Josh Smith (L)26.9%3.0
3. Jake Burger (R)24.8%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.0%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)22.3%3.0
6. Evan Carter (L)24.6%2.5
7. Alejandro Osuna (L)19.6%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)19.9%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)19.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Reid Detmers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.6% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%
vs RHB28.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 6@ DET9
Jun 12@ WSH7
Jun 19vs BOS7
Jun 25@ PIT11
Jul 2vs LAA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)12.3%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)15.0%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)13.3%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)29.1%2.6
5. Owen Caissie (L)32.5%2.0
6. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.0%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)19.2%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)21.3%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)11.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Miller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.8% K / BF

vs LHB28.3%
vs RHB27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 4@ KC3
May 3@ WSH8
May 10vs NYY5
May 16@ MIN7
May 22vs LAD7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)18.5%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)19.5%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)27.2%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)20.3%2.1
5. Alec Burleson (L)17.4%2.0
6. José Fermín (R)20.7%2.0
7. Blaze Jordan (R)17.8%2.0
8. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.7%2.0
9. Pedro Pagés (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Henderson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs BOS13
Jun 16@ LAD7
Jun 22vs KC5
Jun 28vs AZ5
Jul 4@ HOU2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.4%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.9%3.0
3. Amed Rosario (R)25.5%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)19.2%3.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.6%3.0
6. Anthony Volpe (R)22.5%2.0
7. Max Schuemann (R)23.6%2.0
8. Austin Wells (L)25.6%2.0
9. José Caballero (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Drew Rasmussen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.1% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs NYY5
Jun 17@ MIL4
Jun 22@ CWS8
Jun 28vs SEA6
Jul 3vs CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.0%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)16.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.6%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)21.2%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)26.6%3.0
6. Victor Caratini (L)16.7%2.0
7. Luke Keaschall (R)15.6%2.0
8. Alan Roden (L)25.4%2.0
9. Ryan Kreidler (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB27.8%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.1 BF

Expected batters faced20.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs MIL4
Jun 16vs PIT6
Jun 21vs LAA8
Jun 27@ LAA5
Jul 3vs MIA8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)20.3%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.1%3.0
3. Kevin McGonigle (L)15.3%2.1
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)31.8%2.0
5. Riley Greene (L)24.6%2.0
6. Hao-Yu Lee (R)26.0%2.0
7. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0
8. Jahmai Jones (R)27.5%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jack Perkins's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.9 BF

Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2vs TOR6
Jun 7vs PIT4
Jun 14@ NYM2
Jun 21vs MIL6
Jun 27@ SF4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)19.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)24.2%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.4%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)29.4%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.0%3.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R)18.1%2.9
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)27.5%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)23.2%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryce Elder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Miguel Vargas (R)18.2%3.0
2. Randal Grichuk (R)23.2%3.0
3. Colson Montgomery (L)24.8%3.0
4. Chase Meidroth (R)21.4%3.0
5. Sam Antonacci (L)20.3%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)25.9%2.0
7. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0
8. Kyle Teel (L)25.6%2.0
9. Luisangel Acuña (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.9 BF

Expected batters faced24.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs TEX2
Jun 16@ WSH3
Jun 22@ TB5
Jun 27@ CWS7
Jul 4vs PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.9%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.4%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)19.0%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (L)21.0%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)19.7%3.0
6. Jorge Polanco (L)20.3%3.0
7. Jared Young (L)20.7%2.9
8. Brett Baty (L)22.6%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Wacha's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB16.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs MIN2
Jun 16@ HOU6
Jun 22vs NYY8
Jun 27vs HOU2
Jul 2@ TEX1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zack Gelof (R)25.3%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)31.6%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)21.9%3.0
4. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.2%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)15.9%3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L)25.1%2.8
7. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%2.0
8. Carlos Cortes (L)22.4%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Framber Valdez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB18.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ SD5
Jun 16vs NYM5
Jun 22vs MIL7
Jun 28@ PIT6
Jul 3vs BAL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Bryce Harper (L)20.5%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%3.0
3. Brandon Marsh (L)23.4%3.0
4. Bryson Stott (L)18.9%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)16.8%2.6
6. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
7. Justin Crawford (L)20.7%2.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.5%2.0
9. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brady Singer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.3%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 6@ WSH3
May 12vs MIA7
May 17vs MIL1
May 24@ BOS3
May 30@ PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. David Fry (R)21.7%3.0
2. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%3.0
3. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.4%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%3.0
5. Travis Bazzana (L)21.9%3.0
6. Gabriel Arias (R)29.9%2.8
7. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.8%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)22.3%2.0
9. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bailey Ober's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.4% K / BF

vs LHB15.8%
vs RHB20.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11@ MIA1
Jun 16vs LAA4
Jun 22@ STL2
Jun 28@ TB3
Jul 4vs MIL6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.3%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)24.9%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.4%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)23.6%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.9%3.0
6. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.5%3.0
7. Luis Campusano (R)22.1%2.4
8. Samad Taylor (R)25.6%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)18.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Merrill Kelly's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.1% K / BF

vs LHB26.5%
vs RHB19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs ATL6
Jun 18@ PHI5
Jun 24vs CHC4
Jun 29@ TOR4
Jul 4@ ATL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)23.1%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)15.3%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.8%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)23.3%2.3
5. Salvador Perez (R)20.2%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)24.8%2.0
7. Nick Loftin (R)17.3%2.0
8. Isaac Collins (R)21.6%2.0
9. Tyler Tolbert (R)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.4%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9vs SEA3
Jun 14vs SD4
Jun 20@ LAD6
Jun 26vs WSH7
Jul 3@ CIN4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)25.1%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)17.0%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)22.2%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.7%3.0
5. Ian Happ (R)28.6%2.9
6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.6%2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L)20.9%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)18.0%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trevor Rogers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.7% K / BF

vs LHB17.9%
vs RHB18.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 4vs PHI6
May 9vs WSH6
May 15@ TB4
May 20vs ATL3
May 25@ TOR3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)24.5%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.8%3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L)22.4%3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L)27.3%3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)13.2%3.0
6. Luke Raley (L)29.3%2.1
7. Cole Young (L)17.9%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)18.8%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)31.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Janson Junk's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.4%
vs RHB18.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10@ NYM5
Jun 16vs SD6
Jun 22vs AZ2
Jun 27vs MIA4
Jul 3@ CHC2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.0%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.9%3.0
3. Jake Bauers (L)26.9%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.3%3.0
5. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.8%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.1
7. Cooper Pratt (R)18.3%2.0
8. Joey Ortiz (R)20.4%2.0
9. Greg Jones (L)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andre Pallante's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.5% K / BF

vs LHB16.1%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs LAD3
Jun 16@ ATH7
Jun 23vs SEA4
Jun 28vs CIN4
Jul 3@ WSH1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)18.9%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)22.7%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)20.3%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.4%3.0
6. Austin Riley (R)26.2%2.8
7. Mike Yastrzemski (L)21.0%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)22.6%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Keller's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.8% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB16.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 21@ WSH3
May 26vs CIN4
Jun 21@ PHI5
Jun 27@ MIL2
Jul 3vs STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.9%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (R)16.4%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)21.4%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.8%2.4
5. Samuel Basallo (L)27.2%2.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L)23.2%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)30.6%2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R)23.7%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)23.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

David Peterson's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 25vs PHI5
May 31@ WSH3
Jun 6vs NYM6
Jun 12@ BAL6
Jun 29@ CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)15.7%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.5%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)16.3%2.0
5. Max Kepler (L)22.1%2.0
6. Nolan Arenado (R)22.2%2.0
7. Pavin Smith (L)21.2%2.0
8. James McCann (R)24.9%2.0
9. Tim Tawa (R)24.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11vs CHC3
Jun 16@ CHC7
Jun 22vs BOS2
Jun 28@ MIN0
Jul 3vs SF9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)22.9%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)8.1%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.6%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)23.1%2.8
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.4%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)26.2%2.0
7. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.3%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)16.6%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Feltner's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB16.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs LAD7
Jun 17@ NYY2
Jun 22vs CLE8
Jun 28vs KC2
Jul 3@ CLE2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)17.2%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)16.9%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)19.2%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.1%2.1
6. Caleb Durbin (R)14.6%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)23.9%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.0%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)28.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Anthony Kay's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays