MatchWiz Scores

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

★ Plays of the Day

No identified Plays of the Day on this slate — our model didn't find a strikeout disagreement with the book big enough to clear our edge threshold. The model still ran every matchup; it just didn't flag a play worth posting today. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60% — a +9% return.

1:10 PM ETPITPITawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup732:20 PM ETMINMINawayCHCCHChomeTop matchup633:07 PM ETCWSCWSawayTORTORhomeTop matchup233:10 PM ETCINCINawayCOLCOLhomeTop matchup64:05 PM ETNYMNYMawayPHIPHIhomeTop matchup874:10 PM ETSDSDawayKCKChomeTop matchup274:10 PM ETSTLSTLawayAZAZhomeTop matchup274:10 PM ETTBTBawayBOSBOShomeTop matchup504:10 PM ETTEXTEXawayATLATLhomeTop matchup474:10 PM ETMIAMIAawayMILMILhomeTop matchup534:10 PM ETBALBALawayHOUHOUhomeTop matchup437:10 PM ETPITPITawayCLECLEhomeTop matchup398:08 PM ETSFSFawaySEASEAhomeTop matchup438:08 PM ETLADLADawayNYYNYYhomeTop matchup5710:05 PM ETWSHWSHawayATHATHhomeTop matchup3410:07 PM ETDETDETawayLAALAAhomeTop matchup100
PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 31 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB28.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 19vs CWS8
Jun 24vs NYY9
Jun 30@ NYY9
Jul 7vs ATH9
Jul 12vs PHI5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness24.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)24.7%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)24.4%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)19.4%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)24.2%3.0
5. Jo Adell (R)19.5%2.7
6. Josh Lowe (L)24.8%2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R)28.7%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)28.6%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)22.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.6% K / BF

vs LHB31.0%
vs RHB26.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs MIA9
Jun 23@ WSH13
Jun 28@ NYM6
Jul 4@ KC9
Jul 9@ CIN11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)22.0%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)22.0%3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R)22.0%3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R)22.0%3.0
5. Carson Benge (L)22.0%2.8
6. Jorge Polanco (R)22.0%2.0
7. Jared Young (L)22.0%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)22.0%2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Jesús Luzardo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.2% K / BF

vs LHB28.9%
vs RHB24.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 17@ MIL4
Jun 22@ CWS8
Jun 28vs SEA6
Jul 3vs CWS6
Jul 9@ MIN11

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (L)17.4%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.4%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)23.2%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)32.2%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.6%2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R)17.8%2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)26.5%2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.0%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)20.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+115-155
BRBetRivers+117-157
BOVBovada+125-165
DKDraftKings+115-146
FDFanDuel+126-162

We project 6.4 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Gavin Williams's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.0% K / BF

vs LHB27.0%
vs RHB23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20@ AZ4
Jun 26vs COL7
Jul 1@ HOU11
Jul 7vs CLE10
Jul 12vs LAA6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.8%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)23.1%3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R)17.5%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)26.8%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)13.1%2.7
7. Michael Conforto (L)27.0%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)19.8%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.5%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.3 BF

Expected batters faced21.3
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ CWS8
Jun 21vs BAL4
Jun 28@ SD5
Jul 5vs SD5
Jul 12vs AZ7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trent Grisham (L)19.4%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.4%3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)24.7%3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L)17.8%2.3
5. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.1%2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.1%2.0
7. José Caballero (R)21.6%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)29.3%2.0
9. Austin Wells (L)24.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.5% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB25.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs CWS8
Jun 24@ DET6
Jun 29vs DET3
Jul 5vs MIN6
Jul 10@ WSH6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.4%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)19.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)20.1%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)14.2%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)24.4%2.7
6. Kyle Tucker (L)19.9%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.3%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.6%2.0
9. Tommy Edman (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ryan Weathers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.8%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.8 BF

Expected batters faced23.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ PIT9
Jun 20vs SF7
Jun 26@ STL5
Jul 1@ COL5
Jul 7vs SEA4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.8%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.5%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)21.4%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.4%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.3%3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)29.9%2.8
7. Cooper Pratt (R)17.1%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)15.4%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Max Meyer's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate27.2% K / BF

vs LHB27.5%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.5 BF

Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ ATH4
Jun 21@ COL3
Jun 27vs CIN4
Jul 2@ PHI6
Jul 8vs ATL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)21.9%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.8%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)15.8%2.5
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)27.3%2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R)26.2%2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L)29.4%2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R)30.3%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)24.5%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)13.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder
MGMBetMGM+100-135
BRBetRivers-108-122
BOVBovada-115-115
DKDraftKings-111-115
FANFanatics-110-120
FDFanDuel-111-115

We project 5.4 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Jared Jones's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.0% K / BF

vs LHB26.2%
vs RHB27.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.7 BF

Expected batters faced20.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8vs BOS5
Jun 20vs WSH4
Jul 2@ KC8
Jul 7vs NYY12
Jul 12vs SEA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)16.7%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)17.3%2.7
4. Caleb Durbin (R)14.6%2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)19.7%2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R)25.5%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)24.0%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)24.3%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)26.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.0% K / BF

vs LHB21.5%
vs RHB26.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.9%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs SD6
Jun 25@ TOR5
Jul 1@ CLE7
Jul 8vs LAA7
Jul 12vs HOU4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Drake Baldwin (L)19.9%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R)13.4%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)24.0%3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L)20.5%3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.9%3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L)18.9%2.4
7. Austin Riley (R)27.2%2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L)22.0%2.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB27.1%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18@ PHI5
Jun 24vs CHC4
Jun 29@ TOR4
Jul 4@ ATL4
Jul 9vs KC6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)22.0%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.0%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)22.0%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.0%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)22.0%2.1
6. Bryson Stott (L)22.0%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)22.0%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Sean Manaea's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 11@ BAL4
Jun 18vs BAL9
Jun 24@ PIT4
Jun 30vs LAA5
Jul 7@ MIA5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)25.5%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)8.0%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.2%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.9%3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)11.9%3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)24.7%2.4
7. Willy Adames (R)26.0%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)17.1%2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Bryan Woo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.4% K / BF

vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ KC7
Jun 20vs CLE8
Jun 26@ DET7
Jul 3vs TB4
Jul 8@ WSH2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.0%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)18.4%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)21.8%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)24.2%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.5%2.8
6. Dylan Beavers (L)22.0%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)27.4%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)33.0%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Spencer Arrighetti's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 3vs AZ5
Jun 25@ NYM4
Jun 30vs SD2
Jul 7@ BAL7
Jul 12@ CIN3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)21.4%3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R)18.0%3.0
3. Josh Bell (R)20.5%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)23.4%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)21.7%2.7
6. Brooks Lee (R)22.9%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)20.9%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)19.6%2.0
9. Tristan Gray (L)30.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.2%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (R)18.6%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)29.3%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.8%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)23.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)22.7%2.6
6. Nick Gonzales (R)19.8%2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R)26.0%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)18.1%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Allen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.7% K / BF

vs LHB20.1%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 20vs LAA5
Jun 26@ LAA5
Jul 1vs LAD4
Jul 7@ DET4
Jul 12@ CWS7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)23.8%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.5%3.0
3. Abimelec Ortiz (L)22.0%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)19.5%3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R)22.4%3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L)19.3%2.6
7. José Tena (L)24.1%2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L)16.8%2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L)13.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.2%
vs RHB23.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jul 9@ CWS5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)24.2%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)17.9%3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R)22.3%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)23.3%2.6
6. Chandler Simpson (L)16.7%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)20.9%2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R)23.6%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Patrick Sandoval's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.7% K / BF

vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB19.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs CHC7
Jun 21@ MIA5
Jun 27vs ATL6
Jul 3@ COL2
Jul 8vs TOR2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)22.1%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)21.8%3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L)29.2%3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L)13.5%3.0
5. Mitch Garver (R)28.9%3.0
6. Cole Young (L)18.7%3.0
7. Victor Robles (R)17.4%2.3
8. Weston Wilson (R)24.8%2.0
9. Buddy Kennedy (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Logan Webb's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 18vs CLE3
Jun 24@ CIN5
Jul 1vs CIN7
Jul 6@ STL2
Jul 11@ PIT6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)19.0%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)19.3%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (R)18.4%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)23.8%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)22.3%2.7
6. Griffin Conine (L)22.3%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)23.1%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)19.6%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Drohan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.9% K / BF

vs LHB23.5%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs SD9
Jun 21@ KC2
Jul 2@ ATL1
Jul 6vs MIL7
Jul 12vs ATL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)18.4%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.5%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.3%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.6%2.4
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.2%2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.1%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)21.4%2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R)22.6%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)30.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31@ WSH3
Jun 6vs NYM6
Jun 12@ BAL6
Jun 29@ CHC3
Jul 9vs AZ5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)29.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.7%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)24.4%2.8
4. Lane Thomas (R)24.0%2.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)18.0%2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)21.9%2.0
7. Michael Massey (L)16.3%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)15.6%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Griffin Canning's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.9% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 4 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 23vs HOU2
Jun 28vs TEX4
Jul 4@ SEA3
Jul 10@ SD4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)18.1%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)28.3%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)19.2%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)28.3%3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L)19.7%2.5
6. Kyle Teel (L)27.4%2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L)18.1%2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L)19.1%2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R)22.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Bieber's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Justin Foscue (R)24.2%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)20.0%2.8
3. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.9%2.0
4. Josh Jung (R)21.5%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)26.7%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)21.0%2.0
7. Cam Cauley (R)22.0%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)22.0%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Owen Murphy's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.0% K / BF

vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ NYY4
Jun 21@ DET4
Jun 27vs KC3
Jul 2@ CLE0
Jul 8vs BOS2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.5%3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)18.3%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)27.3%3.0
4. George Springer (R)20.8%3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R)14.6%2.5
6. Daulton Varsho (L)20.3%2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.1%2.0
8. Luis Urías (R)20.0%2.0
9. Myles Straw (R)15.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Davis Martin's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.3% K / BF

vs LHB16.6%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 28@ DET5
Jun 2vs COL3
Jun 8vs HOU6
Jun 14vs TB1
Jul 10@ MIN0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)13.9%3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R)22.1%3.0
3. Colt Keith (L)21.3%3.0
4. Riley Greene (L)25.0%3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R)29.7%2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L)27.6%2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L)19.0%2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R)20.8%2.0
9. James Outman (L)35.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Grayson Rodriguez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.2%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs SD4
Jun 20@ LAD6
Jun 26vs WSH7
Jul 3@ CIN4
Jul 9vs CHC4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.2%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)18.2%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)20.6%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)21.3%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)22.7%3.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)23.6%2.1
7. Cam Smith (R)22.3%2.0
8. Lucas Spence (L)22.0%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)19.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trevor Rogers's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB18.6%
vs RHB18.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 31vs SD5
Jun 6@ AZ4
Jun 12vs SEA0
Jun 17vs KC2
Jun 28@ BAL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)15.4%3.0
2. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)25.6%2.8
4. Jonah Heim (L)23.0%2.0
5. Colby Thomas (R)26.1%2.0
6. Joey Meneses (R)22.8%2.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L)23.1%2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R)23.0%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)26.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Littell's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.0%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)21.7%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.8%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)22.3%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)21.9%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.2%2.5
6. Ty France (R)21.0%2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)23.4%2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R)18.4%2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Randy Dobnak's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate14.7% K / BF

vs LHB15.2%
vs RHB15.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 2@ LAA5
Jun 9vs CHC3
Jun 14@ ATH2
Jun 20vs PIT5
Jun 26@ MIN2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.1%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)20.8%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)20.8%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)23.2%3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R)29.9%3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R)26.1%2.1
7. TJ Friedl (L)23.0%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.0%2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.3% K / BF

vs LHB20.0%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.9 BF

Expected batters faced20.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7@ STL4
Jun 13vs AZ6
Jun 19@ NYY5
Jun 24vs MIL6
Jun 30@ MIL8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.5%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)24.2%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.4%2.9
4. TJ Rumfield (L)15.7%2.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)21.1%2.0
6. Willi Castro (L)24.3%2.0
7. Troy Johnston (L)19.4%2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R)14.8%2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R)20.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Rhett Lowder's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.8% K / BF

vs LHB19.3%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload17.2 BF

Expected batters faced17.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 5vs ATL2
Apr 11@ PHI6
Jun 30vs SF2
Jul 6@ SD6
Jul 11@ LAD2

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.2%2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.1%2.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)24.3%2.0
4. Alec Burleson (L)17.5%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.3%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)19.9%2.0
7. Nathan Church (L)21.4%2.0
8. José Fermín (R)20.8%2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L)29.2%1.3

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Brandon Pfaadt's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays