MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Strikeouts Board · Today

Best MLB strikeouts matchupsSunday, July 12, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Sunday, July 12, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Tap any card for the full breakdown.

Plays of the Day

Plays post once today's odds and lineups are in. We pull the books' lines around 10am ET, then surface strikeout plays as each lineup goes final. The board fills through the day — turn on alerts (the bell up top) to get pinged the moment plays post. This season strikeout PODs are hitting 60%a +9% return.

PROJSome lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.3% K / BF

vs LHB28.1%
vs RHB29.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)25.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs MIA9
Jun 21vs NYM7
Jun 26@ NYM5
Jul 1vs PIT10
Jul 7@ CIN14

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.9% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Matt Vierling (R)19.6%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)14.4%3.0
3. Dillon Dingler (R)21.9%3.0
4. Spencer Torkelson (R)30.4%3.0
5. Riley Greene (L)24.4%3.0
6. Eduardo Valencia (R)22.0%2.5
7. Hao-Yu Lee (R)24.1%2.0
8. Ben Malgeri (R)22.0%2.0
9. Zach McKinstry (L)18.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zack Wheeler's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate30.3% K / BF

vs LHB26.6%
vs RHB29.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)23.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13@ CLE4
Jun 19vs CWS8
Jun 24vs NYY9
Jun 30@ NYY9
Jul 7vs ATH9

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trea Turner (R)19.4%3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L)27.2%3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)24.8%3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L)30.9%3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R)18.6%2.8
6. Bryson Stott (L)19.4%2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.9%2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L)22.0%2.0
9. Derek Hill (R)28.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tarik Skubal's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.7% K / BF

vs LHB25.6%
vs RHB27.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs MIA10
Jun 20@ COL8
Jun 26vs CIN7
Jul 1@ PHI5
Jul 7vs ATL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)26.2%3.0
2. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.6%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)17.0%3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L)26.8%3.0
6. Luis Lara (L)22.0%2.3
7. Cooper Pratt (R)17.6%2.0
8. Sal Frelick (L)14.2%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Paul Skenes's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate28.1% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB25.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection6.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs STL7
Jun 20@ AZ4
Jun 26vs COL7
Jul 1@ HOU11
Jul 7vs CLE10

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)28.1%3.0
2. Mike Trout (R)24.9%3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L)16.7%3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R)28.6%3.0
5. Vaughn Grissom (R)20.3%3.0
6. Jo Adell (R)22.7%2.1
7. Wade Meckler (L)20.8%2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R)20.6%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Taj Bradley's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate26.6% K / BF

vs LHB25.1%
vs RHB25.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs SEA5
Jun 20@ TB1
Jun 25vs PHI7
Jun 30@ BOS13
Jul 5vs PIT3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Amed Rosario (R)25.8%3.0
2. Ben Rice (L)22.5%3.0
3. Trent Grisham (L)20.2%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)25.7%3.0
5. Cody Bellinger (L)18.8%2.1
6. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.6%2.0
7. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)26.9%2.0
8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.3%2.0
9. Ali Sánchez (R)23.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cade Cavalli's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate29.4% K / BF

vs LHB27.7%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.8 BF

Expected batters faced19.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 15vs MIA2
Jun 8vs BOS5
Jun 20vs WSH4
Jul 2@ KC8
Jul 7vs NYY12

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.9%3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R)22.5%2.8
3. Dominic Canzone (L)23.1%2.0
4. Cal Raleigh (R)27.6%2.0
5. Josh Naylor (L)20.3%2.0
6. Luke Raley (L)23.6%2.0
7. Cole Young (L)22.6%2.0
8. Victor Robles (R)22.2%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Ian Seymour's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB26.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs MIN10
Jun 20vs SD6
Jun 25@ TOR5
Jul 1@ CLE7
Jul 8vs LAA7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)18.9%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.0%3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.8%3.0
4. Christian Walker (R)20.2%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)21.8%3.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)20.7%3.0
7. Yainer Diaz (R)22.0%2.0
8. Taylor Trammell (L)22.0%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

MacKenzie Gore's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.4% K / BF

vs LHB22.1%
vs RHB26.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs NYY7
Jun 19@ CHC3
Jun 25vs TEX4
Jun 30vs NYM7
Jul 6@ SF8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.3% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)20.6%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)23.9%3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R)21.2%3.0
4. Manny Machado (R)23.2%3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)18.9%3.0
6. Ty France (R)21.6%2.2
7. Jake Cronenworth (L)22.9%2.0
8. Luis Campusano (R)20.2%2.0
9. Sung-Mun Song (L)19.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Kevin Gausman's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.1% K / BF

vs LHB18.9%
vs RHB24.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15vs PIT3
Jun 20vs LAA5
Jun 26@ LAA5
Jul 1vs LAD4
Jul 7@ DET4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Randal Grichuk (R)19.9%3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L)27.2%3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)17.8%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)29.3%3.0
5. Chase Meidroth (R)22.3%3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (L)19.1%2.6
7. Luisangel Acuña (R)21.3%2.0
8. Junior Perez (R)22.0%2.0
9. Drew Romo (L)23.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

J.T. Ginn's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.0%
vs RHB27.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16vs TOR6
Jun 21@ SEA2
Jun 26vs NYY7
Jul 1vs WSH5
Jul 7@ CWS6

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. A.J. Ewing (L)23.7%3.0
2. Juan Soto (L)16.4%3.0
3. Francisco Lindor (R)16.0%3.0
4. Carson Benge (L)23.8%3.0
5. Jorge Polanco (R)21.4%3.0
6. Eric Wagaman (R)21.5%2.1
7. Francisco Alvarez (R)24.2%2.0
8. Brett Baty (L)27.1%2.0
9. Zack Short (R)23.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Payton Tolle's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.2% K / BF

vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 27@ SD4
May 3vs AZ5
Jun 25@ NYM4
Jun 30vs SD2
Jul 7@ BAL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Elly De La Cruz (R)25.8%3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R)21.7%3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L)21.8%3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R)18.1%3.0
5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)24.8%2.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)32.2%2.0
7. Jose Trevino (R)21.8%2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (R)22.0%2.0
9. TJ Friedl (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Matthew Boyd's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB26.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs TB5
Jun 19@ ATH6
Jun 24vs BAL4
Jun 30@ SEA9
Jul 7@ TEX4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)18.4%3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L)16.7%3.0
3. Josh Bell (L)21.1%3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L)21.8%3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R)25.8%2.8
6. Victor Caratini (L)16.6%2.0
7. Alan Roden (L)22.4%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)27.3%2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R)15.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

José Soriano's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate25.3% K / BF

vs LHB24.2%
vs RHB25.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 7vs LAA2
Jun 14@ CWS8
Jun 21vs BAL4
Jun 28@ SD5
Jul 5vs SD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)16.2%3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L)14.1%3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L)24.7%3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R)17.1%2.1
5. Max Kepler (L)23.0%2.0
6. Tim Tawa (R)22.5%2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R)22.8%2.0
8. James McCann (R)24.9%2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emmet Sheehan's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate23.3% K / BF

vs LHB23.8%
vs RHB21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.8 BF

Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ NYM6
Jun 15vs SD9
Jun 21@ KC2
Jul 2@ ATL1
Jul 6vs MIL7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Michael Harris II (L)21.4%3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L)20.2%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.0%3.0
4. Drake Baldwin (L)19.8%2.8
5. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.0%2.0
6. Austin Riley (R)27.3%2.0
7. Eli White (R)21.9%2.0
8. Joey Bart (R)22.1%2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Dustin May's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.9% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB20.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 9@ ATH7
Jun 16vs CLE5
Jun 21@ ATL7
Jun 29vs CIN5
Jul 7@ STL4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness22.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake Mangum (R)19.8%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)27.9%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)21.3%3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.7%3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L)23.6%2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R)20.4%2.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)19.8%2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R)19.8%2.0
9. Henry Davis (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Robert Gasser's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate24.8% K / BF

vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB25.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs DET4
Jun 20@ HOU9
Jun 26vs SEA9
Jul 1vs TEX4
Jul 7@ MIN7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.6% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)19.2%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)16.1%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)25.2%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (R)18.3%3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)20.2%2.4
6. Griffin Conine (L)22.0%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)24.5%2.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.5%2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R)17.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Joey Cantillo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 10vs TEX2
Jun 19vs STL0
Jun 25@ TB3
Jul 1vs TB7
Jul 7@ NYM4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness23.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Gunnar Henderson (L)20.7%3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L)18.8%3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R)22.2%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)23.9%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.2%3.0
6. Tyler O'Neill (R)25.9%2.1
7. Coby Mayo (R)28.5%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)22.2%2.0
9. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Seth Lugo's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.2% K / BF

vs LHB19.5%
vs RHB24.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14@ TOR1
Jun 20vs CIN8
Jun 26@ BOS0
Jul 1vs DET7
Jul 7@ TB3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)24.7%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.4%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)20.1%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)19.6%3.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)18.9%3.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)22.6%2.4
7. Jorbit Vivas (L)16.7%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)21.6%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Will Warren's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 2 GamesStrikeouts

May 20@ WSH3
Jun 26vs PHI7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Anthony Seigler (R)17.8%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)20.1%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.2%3.0
4. Caleb Durbin (R)14.3%3.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L)19.7%2.6
6. Andruw Monasterio (R)22.1%2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L)23.8%2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R)23.9%2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Zach Thornton's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.2% K / BF

vs LHB22.8%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 12vs SD1
Jun 18@ SEA9
Jun 23@ LAA5
Jun 29vs CWS6
Jul 7vs CHC3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.2% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)28.6%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)20.6%3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L)25.5%3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R)25.5%3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)15.4%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)21.5%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)16.7%2.6
8. Nick Loftin (R)15.8%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Shane Baz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.0% K / BF

vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 1 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 24@ STL3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.1% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.2%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)19.6%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)19.5%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)13.8%2.9
5. Max Muncy (L)23.9%2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.6%2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R)22.4%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.9%2.0
9. Tommy Edman (R)21.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Mitch Bratt's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.5% K / BF

vs LHB20.4%
vs RHB22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 13vs KC3
May 18@ SEA6
May 24@ SF1
Jul 1@ BAL7
Jul 7vs BOS3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jacob Wilson (R)16.6%3.0
2. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.1%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)22.3%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)19.6%3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R)22.0%2.3
6. Lawrence Butler (L)26.5%2.0
7. Carlos Cortes (L)22.4%2.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L)14.9%2.0
9. Henry Bolte (R)28.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Noah Schultz's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate22.5% K / BF

vs LHB24.0%
vs RHB20.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 8@ BAL3
Jun 14@ WSH2
Jun 20vs BOS6
Jun 28@ CLE6
Jul 5vs TOR5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness18.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)17.4%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)19.8%3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R)21.6%3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L)22.9%3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R)19.2%2.6
6. Chandler Simpson (L)11.8%2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R)20.9%2.0
8. Richie Palacios (L)17.6%2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R)17.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Emerson Hancock's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate20.6% K / BF

vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 14vs AZ5
Jun 20@ NYY6
Jun 26@ PIT6
Jul 1@ MIL3
Jul 7vs PHI8

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.4% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.7%3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R)22.1%3.0
3. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0
4. Carson Kelly (R)18.6%3.0
5. Michael Busch (L)22.0%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)14.7%2.4
7. Ian Happ (R)28.5%2.0
8. Dansby Swanson (R)24.9%2.0
9. Miguel Amaya (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Andrew Abbott's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate18.6% K / BF

vs LHB17.6%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 13vs CHC4
Jun 20@ MIA1
Jun 26vs ATL3
Jul 1@ AZ5
Jul 7vs TOR0

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Jake McCarthy (L)18.3%3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L)22.5%3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R)26.9%3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L)15.4%3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R)21.6%2.3
6. Troy Johnston (L)18.5%2.0
7. Edouard Julien (L)23.4%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.2%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Trevor McDonald's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate21.6% K / BF

vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB20.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload20.8 BF

Expected batters faced20.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

May 4@ SEA2
May 13vs CHC4
May 18@ MIA4
Jun 17vs SF4
Jun 23@ SD7

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.8% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)17.1%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)20.6%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)17.6%2.8
4. Jordan Walker (R)26.1%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)21.7%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)18.5%2.0
7. Bryan Torres (L)23.4%2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R)20.2%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)21.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

JR Ritchie's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.6% K / BF

vs LHB18.3%
vs RHB16.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 16@ PHI4
Jun 22vs TEX4
Jun 28@ STL1
Jul 3@ ATH2
Jul 8vs SEA3

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.7% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Travis Bazzana (L)22.1%3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L)15.9%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)16.2%3.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L)28.5%3.0
5. Kahlil Watson (L)22.0%2.4
6. Gabriel Arias (R)30.4%2.0
7. Petey Halpin (L)22.9%2.0
8. Patrick Bailey (L)24.6%2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L)12.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Tyler Phillips's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate16.5% K / BF

vs LHB17.1%
vs RHB17.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.6 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Jun 15@ CHC5
Jun 21vs PIT5
Jun 27@ MIN1
Jul 2vs MIA1
Jul 7@ LAD5

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness20.0% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.8%3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L)7.3%3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.7%3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.4%3.0
5. Willy Adames (R)26.5%2.8
6. Bryce Eldridge (L)26.0%2.0
7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)12.0%2.0
8. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0
9. Drew Gilbert (L)17.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Michael Lorenzen's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate17.2% K / BF

vs LHB17.5%
vs RHB18.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.5%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6
From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 5 GamesStrikeouts

Apr 11vs COL5
Apr 18@ LAA5
Apr 25@ AZ2
May 1vs CWS2
Jul 7vs AZ4

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness19.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Ernie Clement (R)11.8%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)14.3%3.0
3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.2%3.0
4. George Springer (R)21.1%2.6
5. Kazuma Okamoto (R)28.7%2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.0
7. Alejandro Kirk (R)15.3%2.0
8. Andrés Giménez (L)21.3%2.0
9. Jonatan Clase (L)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Germán Márquez's full player page →

Pitcher strikeouts Rate19.6% K / BF

vs LHB20.9%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.0%

How often he gives up strikeouts to the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload19.0 BF

Expected batters faced19.0
From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.

Last 3 GamesStrikeouts

Mar 28vs LAA1
Apr 3@ ATH2
Apr 8@ COL1

Opposing Lineup · K-proneness21.5% avg

BatterRateExp PA
1. Joc Pederson (L)22.4%3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R)21.0%2.0
3. Josh Jung (R)22.0%2.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.8%2.0
5. Jake Burger (R)24.2%2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R)19.7%2.0
7. Evan Carter (L)22.9%2.0
8. Nicky Lopez (L)17.2%2.0
9. Elias Díaz (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeouts rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Cristian Javier's full player page →

What the strikeouts board is

The Strikeouts board projects how many batters a starting pitcher strikes out, set against the sportsbook's strikeout line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

  • The pitcher's own strikeout rate — his stuff, blended across recent form and the full season.
  • The exact lineup he faces: how often those nine hitters go down swinging, weighted by who bats when.
  • Park and the plate-discipline edge in the matchup (a whiff-prone lineup is a K magnet).

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Where the edge is

This is our sharpest prop. When our projection gaps far from the book's line — 1.5 strikeouts or more — that disagreement has been profitable in a full-season backtest, and it holds up out-of-sample. The book leans on a pitcher's name and season number; we score the exact lineup in front of him, so we catch the spots the line is slow to move on. Most of the value is on the UNDER of an inflated ace line. This season those plays are hitting 60% at a +9% return — graded in the open, day by day.

How to use it

Scan for the biggest gaps between our projected K's and the posted line — those are the Plays of the Day. A small gap isn't a play; the edge is in the wide disagreements, and we grade every one against the real box score.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.