Season line
8 starts, 1-2, 4.54 ERA, 1.76 WHIP, 39.2 innings. He's struck out 41 over that span, against 18 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws left-handed
Patrick is a left-hander, and that matters more for a starter than it does for most hitters. Lineups get built specifically to attack lefties — managers stack right-handed bats against them — so the lineup he draws on a given night swings his projection further than a righty's would. The model prices the actual lineup rather than a season-long rate for exactly that reason. A stacked righty lineup is the spot where his strikeout projection comes down hardest.
His last 5 starts
Patrick has 28 strikeouts in 25.7 innings across his last 5 starts, a 9.8 K/9, with a 5.26 ERA over that stretch and 14 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Patrick has 41 strikeouts and 18 walks in 39.7 innings this season — 9.3 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9, a 2.3-to-1 ratio. That walk rate is the risk in every projection on him. Free passes run up pitch counts, and a short outing caps the strikeout and outs numbers no matter how favourable the lineup looks. His floor is genuinely lower than his stuff suggests.
What his floor looks like
Patrick has made 8 starts this season, averaging 5.0 innings with a 4.54 ERA across them. In the 8 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 5 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Patrick is averaging 5.0 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 6.0 and about 84 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
His best start in the log
Patrick's high-water mark was Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at ATH: 7 strikeouts over 5.0 innings, 2 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Patrick included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes.