Best MLB Walks Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026
Top walks spot: Ketel Marte
Ketel Marte (AZ) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zach Agnos. The lefty is working counts at — BB/PA against righties this year, a solid bat that turns into a walk in about 9% of his trips. And Zach Agnos has been thin against righties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Zach Agnos, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Willi Castro (COL) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (91) vs RHP Luis Severino: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Alika Williams (ATH) (91) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (90) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Tyler Freeman (COL) (90) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (87) vs RHP Braxton Ashcraft: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Oneil Cruz (PIT) (87) vs RHP Dustin May: a solid bat at .085 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Ketel Marte finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.