Best MLB Walks Matchups — Sunday, June 28, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is working counts at .183 BB/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Michael King has been prone to walking righties lately — .100 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael King too — .389 across 18 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Hunter Brown: an excellent bat at .145 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) (100) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .127 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.114), due to bounce back.
- Lars Nootbaar (STL) (89) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: an excellent bat at .126 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
- James Wood (WSH) (86) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: an excellent bat at .137 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.035).
- Cody Bellinger (NYY) (82) vs RHP Sonny Gray: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.114).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (80) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .128 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Nate Eaton (BOS) (79) vs LHP Carlos Rodón: a strong bat at .103 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.032), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .183 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .161 against righties this year.
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Lars Nootbaar (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .181 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 walk. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays