Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, July 3, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael King. The lefty is working counts at .182 BB/PA against righties this year — and .118 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 12% of his trips. And Michael King has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .125 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael King too — .381 across 21 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Rafael Devers (SF) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .118 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.167), hitter's park, hot bat.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (93) vs RHP Michael King: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an elite bat at .172 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (81) vs RHP Grant Holmes: an elite bat at .154 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125), due to bounce back.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (78) vs RHP Tyler Phillips: an excellent bat at .135 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.080).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (77) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .096 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.188).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (75) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.147).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .088 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% walk park). Top bat there: Rafael Devers (SF) at 100.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays