Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.2 BF
Expected batters faced16.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)20.4%2.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.9%2.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)24.0%2.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)22.4%2.0
5. Geraldo Perdomo (L)23.7%2.0
6. LuJames Groover (R)22.5%2.0
7. Tommy Troy (R)18.9%2.0
8. Aramis Garcia (R)18.8%1.2
9. Jorge Barrosa (L)17.8%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.5 BF
Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Chase Meidroth (R)26.2%2.5
2. Randal Grichuk (R)26.4%2.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R)24.5%2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)21.3%2.0
5. Everson Pereira (R)24.8%2.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R)22.5%2.0
7. Edgar Quero (R)19.3%2.0
8. Luisangel Acuña (R)22.4%2.0
9. Sam Antonacci (L)16.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB18.7%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload19.9 BF
Expected batters faced19.9
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.9%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)22.2%2.9
3. Michael Busch (L)21.9%2.0
4. Ian Happ (L)24.2%2.0
5. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.8%2.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)20.9%2.0
7. Moisés Ballesteros (L)22.2%2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R)22.4%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)18.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.9%
vs RHB22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.5 BF
Expected batters faced20.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. JJ Wetherholt (L)23.3%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)21.7%3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L)27.5%2.5
4. Jordan Walker (R)25.4%2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L)20.0%2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R)20.3%2.0
7. Jimmy Crooks (L)18.8%2.0
8. Nolan Gorman (L)18.3%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)23.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB21.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.3 BF
Expected batters faced20.3
From recent starts3
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)23.2%3.0
2. Bo Bichette (R)22.2%3.0
3. Juan Soto (L)21.5%2.3
4. Jared Young (L)23.9%2.0
5. A.J. Ewing (L)24.3%2.0
6. Marcus Semien (R)21.1%2.0
7. Brett Baty (L)22.4%2.0
8. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.6%2.0
9. MJ Melendez (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.9%
vs RHB20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)22.5%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)22.5%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)23.4%3.0
4. Jac Caglianone (L)22.9%2.9
5. Lane Thomas (R)20.4%2.0
6. Michael Massey (L)22.5%2.0
7. Kameron Misner (L)20.2%2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R)19.0%2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L)20.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.1%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.9 BF
Expected batters faced22.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.3%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.9%3.0
3. Adley Rutschman (L)23.1%3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R)22.9%3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L)22.3%2.9
6. Leody Taveras (L)22.9%2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L)22.3%2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R)16.6%2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L)22.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.2%
vs RHB21.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Trevor Larnach (L)22.5%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)22.9%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)23.9%3.0
4. Josh Bell (L)22.9%3.0
5. Brooks Lee (L)22.3%2.5
6. Royce Lewis (R)19.7%2.0
7. Victor Caratini (L)22.5%2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L)24.1%2.0
9. Austin Martin (R)20.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.6%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.5 BF
Expected batters faced25.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Nick Gonzales (R)22.1%3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)18.5%3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R)25.2%3.0
4. Marcell Ozuna (R)22.3%3.0
5. Spencer Horwitz (L)21.8%3.0
6. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.5%3.0
7. Jake Mangum (R)23.9%3.0
8. Rafael Flores Jr. (R)20.8%2.5
9. Jared Triolo (R)24.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.8%
vs RHB24.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.5 BF
Expected batters faced22.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.6%3.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)25.8%3.0
3. Matt Olson (L)23.3%3.0
4. Ozzie Albies (R)27.4%3.0
5. Austin Riley (R)20.0%2.5
6. Jorge Mateo (R)26.3%2.0
7. Eli White (R)21.0%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)19.5%2.0
9. Sandy León (R)20.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edouard Julien (L)22.8%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)21.6%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)22.2%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)22.8%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)27.1%2.7
6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.5%2.0
7. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.5%2.0
8. Ezequiel Tovar (R)21.7%2.0
9. Brett Sullivan (L)19.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.2%
vs RHB21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.9 BF
Expected batters faced23.9
From recent starts5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.9%3.0
2. Gleyber Torres (R)26.4%3.0
3. Riley Greene (L)26.3%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)25.1%3.0
5. Kerry Carpenter (L)23.3%3.0
6. Colt Keith (L)22.0%2.9
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)19.9%2.0
8. Zach McKinstry (L)20.2%2.0
9. Jake Rogers (R)19.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.3%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)23.0%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)22.8%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)22.4%3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R)24.4%3.0
5. Luke Raley (L)21.8%3.0
6. Dominic Canzone (L)26.7%2.3
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)21.5%2.0
8. Jhonny Pereda (R)25.6%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)24.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.4%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)22.1%3.0
2. Corey Seager (L)20.2%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)26.4%3.0
4. Brandon Nimmo (L)22.3%3.0
5. Ezequiel Duran (R)25.1%3.0
6. Jake Burger (R)21.1%3.0
7. Evan Carter (L)18.9%2.8
8. Elias Díaz (R)23.9%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)23.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.8%
vs RHB22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)24.6%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)23.7%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)27.6%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)19.3%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)24.3%3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.0%2.5
7. Ryan Ward (L)24.1%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.8%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)22.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB23.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload25.3 BF
Expected batters faced25.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)23.4%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)27.2%3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L)22.0%3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L)25.0%3.0
5. Javier Sanoja (R)22.6%3.0
6. Owen Caissie (L)20.6%3.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)20.7%3.0
8. Joe Mack (L)22.5%2.3
9. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
14 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Zebby MatthewsP
MIN@DET· proj #12
9HFinal
T1
Michael WachaP
KCvsTEX· proj #14
9HFinal
3
Christian ScottP
NYMvsSTL· proj #4
7HFinal
T3
Hunter DobbinsP
STL@NYM· proj #5
7HFinal
T3
Bryan WooP
SEA@BAL· proj #7
7HFinal
T3
Kyle BradishP
BALvsSEA· proj #13
7HFinal
T3
Mitch KellerP
PITvsLAD· proj #15
7HFinal
8
Justin WrobleskiP
LAD@PIT· proj #9
6HFinal
9
Kumar RockerP
TEX@KC· proj #6
5HFinal
T9
Edward CabreraP
CHC@COL· proj #11
5HFinal
11
Ryan FeltnerP
COLvsCHC· proj #3
4HFinal
T11
Keider MonteroP
DETvsMIN· proj #8
4HFinal
T11
Merrill KellyP
AZ@MIA· proj #16
4HFinal
14
Tyler PhillipsP
MIAvsAZ· proj #1
2HFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Thursday, June 11, 2026
Tyler Phillips (MIA) is the top hits allowed spot on the Thursday, June 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.4 H, with Martín Pérez (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Tyler Phillips
Tyler Phillips (MIA) tops the Thursday, June 11, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.4 H vs AZ. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Martín Pérez (ATL) (87) — about 3.8 H vs CWS.
Ryan Feltner (COL) (73) — about 4.1 H vs CHC.
Christian Scott (NYM) (72) — about 4.2 H vs STL.
Hunter Dobbins (STL) (56) — about 4.6 H vs NYM.
Kumar Rocker (TEX) (53) — about 4.7 H vs KC.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 5.3 H. Tyler Phillips finished with 2. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Thursday, June 11, 2026)?
Tyler Phillips (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.4 H against AZ.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Thursday, June 11, 2026: Tyler Phillips (~3.4 H), Martín Pérez (~3.8 H), Ryan Feltner (~4.1 H), Christian Scott (~4.2 H), Hunter Dobbins (~4.6 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
