Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, June 13, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Results show how each call played out.
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload11.7 BF
Expected batters faced11.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection2.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Spencer Horwitz (L)24.4%2.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.9%2.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L)20.5%1.7
4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)24.9%1.0
5. Nick Gonzales (R)27.5%1.0
6. Endy Rodríguez (L)19.9%1.0
7. Tyler Callihan (L)23.0%1.0
8. Jake Mangum (L)27.6%1.0
9. Jared Triolo (R)18.6%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.5%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload14.9 BF
Expected batters faced14.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Kyle Schwarber (L)22.6%2.0
2. Trea Turner (R)20.6%2.0
3. Bryce Harper (L)21.8%2.0
4. Alec Bohm (R)23.2%2.0
5. Brandon Marsh (L)23.6%2.0
6. Edmundo Sosa (R)21.6%1.9
7. Bryson Stott (L)22.0%1.0
8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.3%1.0
9. Derek Hill (R)21.7%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.4% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.3%
vs RHB21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload16.0 BF
Expected batters faced16.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mauricio Dubón (R)20.9%2.0
2. Michael Harris II (L)26.1%2.0
3. Ozzie Albies (R)27.3%2.0
4. Matt Olson (L)23.6%2.0
5. Austin Riley (R)20.3%2.0
6. Eli White (R)21.0%2.0
7. Jorge Mateo (R)25.6%2.0
8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.0%1.0
9. Sandy León (R)20.3%1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.1%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload17.2 BF
Expected batters faced17.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Zach Neto (R)20.8%2.0
2. Mike Trout (R)18.6%2.0
3. Wade Meckler (L)26.3%2.0
4. Jo Adell (R)20.7%2.0
5. Nolan Schanuel (L)22.5%2.0
6. Oswald Peraza (R)23.5%2.0
7. Denzer Guzman (R)19.4%2.0
8. Donovan Walton (L)22.5%2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R)20.6%1.2
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.6%
vs RHB20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.5 BF
Expected batters faced18.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carson Benge (L)26.0%2.5
2. Bo Bichette (R)22.4%2.0
3. Juan Soto (L)23.6%2.0
4. Mark Vientos (R)23.4%2.0
5. Marcus Semien (R)21.8%2.0
6. Francisco Alvarez (R)22.1%2.0
7. Eric Wagaman (R)22.9%2.0
8. MJ Melendez (L)21.5%2.0
9. Vidal Bruján (R)20.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate17.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.3%
vs RHB17.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload18.1 BF
Expected batters faced18.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection3.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Luis Arraez (L)27.2%2.1
2. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.7%2.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R)22.3%2.0
4. Rafael Devers (L)22.8%2.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)32.9%2.0
6. Willy Adames (R)21.9%2.0
7. Matt Chapman (R)24.8%2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.4%2.0
9. Eric Haase (R)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.2%
vs RHB22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ketel Marte (L)20.2%3.0
2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.6%3.0
3. Gabriel Moreno (R)23.3%3.0
4. Nolan Arenado (R)21.9%2.0
5. Pavin Smith (L)22.5%2.0
6. Geraldo Perdomo (L)23.0%2.0
7. Tommy Troy (R)18.1%2.0
8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)22.5%2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)21.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.3% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.3%
vs RHB20.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.0 BF
Expected batters faced21.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. James Wood (L)20.9%3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L)24.6%3.0
3. Curtis Mead (R)21.4%3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L)24.1%2.0
5. Daylen Lile (L)24.3%2.0
6. Dylan Crews (R)19.1%2.0
7. José Tena (L)22.5%2.0
8. Drew Millas (L)20.4%2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.8 BF
Expected batters faced21.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Liam Hicks (L)23.8%3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R)26.6%3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L)24.2%3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L)21.4%2.8
5. Heriberto Hernández (R)23.3%2.0
6. Leo Jiménez (R)22.5%2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L)21.3%2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R)22.2%2.0
9. Connor Norby (R)21.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload20.4 BF
Expected batters faced20.4
From recent starts4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.5% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.2%3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L)20.3%3.0
3. Manny Machado (R)18.3%2.4
4. Xander Bogaerts (R)20.2%2.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L)19.8%2.0
6. Samad Taylor (R)23.6%2.0
7. Will Wagner (L)25.3%2.0
8. Jase Bowen (R)22.5%2.0
9. Freddy Fermin (R)18.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.7% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.9%
vs RHB19.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.2 BF
Expected batters faced23.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Jeremy Peña (R)23.7%3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L)25.3%3.0
3. Christian Walker (R)20.2%3.0
4. Isaac Paredes (R)20.9%3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R)22.0%3.0
6. Cam Smith (R)22.0%2.2
7. Jake Meyers (R)19.2%2.0
8. Brice Matthews (R)21.2%2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R)22.1%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.4%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.7 BF
Expected batters faced22.7
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.6 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Mickey Gasper (L)23.4%3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)24.3%3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L)20.8%3.0
4. Willson Contreras (R)23.1%3.0
5. Jarren Duran (L)20.6%2.7
6. Caleb Durbin (R)22.1%2.0
7. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)26.1%2.0
8. Marcelo Mayer (L)20.3%2.0
9. Carlos Narváez (R)20.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB19.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)22.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.5 BF
Expected batters faced23.5
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Angel Martínez (R)23.1%3.0
2. José Ramírez (R)26.0%3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L)27.1%3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R)17.9%3.0
5. David Fry (R)19.5%3.0
6. Travis Bazzana (L)18.8%2.5
7. Stuart Fairchild (R)19.9%2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R)24.1%2.0
9. Brayan Rocchio (R)21.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate18.5% Hits / BF
vs LHB19.1%
vs RHB19.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Sam Antonacci (L)27.0%3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R)19.2%3.0
3. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.6%3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L)21.1%3.0
5. Braden Montgomery (L)22.5%3.0
6. Chase Meidroth (R)22.1%3.0
7. Jacob Gonzalez (L)22.5%2.5
8. Tristan Peters (L)28.4%2.0
9. Edgar Quero (L)21.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.1%
vs RHB18.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.6 BF
Expected batters faced23.6
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edwin Arroyo (L)22.5%3.0
2. JJ Bleday (L)23.5%3.0
3. Sal Stewart (R)23.1%3.0
4. Nathaniel Lowe (L)22.3%3.0
5. Spencer Steer (R)20.8%3.0
6. Eugenio Suárez (R)20.4%2.6
7. Noelvi Marte (R)24.3%2.0
8. Tyler Stephenson (R)22.7%2.0
9. Matt McLain (R)20.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.0%
vs RHB24.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.4 BF
Expected batters faced21.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Gleyber Torres (R)19.1%3.0
2. Kevin McGonigle (L)22.5%3.0
3. Matt Vierling (R)23.0%3.0
4. Dillon Dingler (R)19.7%2.4
5. Riley Greene (L)21.1%2.0
6. Jahmai Jones (R)18.6%2.0
7. Spencer Torkelson (R)21.9%2.0
8. Wenceel Pérez (R)23.3%2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)21.0%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.8 BF
Expected batters faced22.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Shohei Ohtani (L)25.2%3.0
2. Andy Pages (R)23.8%3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L)26.9%3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R)19.4%3.0
5. Max Muncy (L)23.8%2.8
6. Kyle Tucker (L)21.1%2.0
7. Ryan Ward (L)23.2%2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L)23.1%2.0
9. Alex Freeland (L)21.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.0%
vs RHB22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.8 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.6% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Austin Martin (R)21.3%3.0
2. Byron Buxton (R)24.7%3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L)21.0%3.0
4. Royce Lewis (R)21.3%2.9
5. Brooks Lee (R)20.3%2.0
6. Orlando Arcia (R)21.3%2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R)20.5%2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R)22.9%2.0
9. Alex Jackson (R)21.4%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.6%
vs RHB19.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.4 BF
Expected batters faced23.4
From recent starts7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection4.9 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)24.6%3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R)22.0%3.0
3. Michael Busch (L)22.7%3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R)23.9%3.0
5. Ian Happ (L)24.1%3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R)20.9%2.4
7. Pedro Ramírez (L)22.5%2.0
8. Miguel Amaya (R)19.5%2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R)17.8%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate22.1% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.6%
vs RHB21.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.3 BF
Expected batters faced23.3
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Ben Rice (L)24.5%3.0
2. Jasson Domínguez (L)20.4%3.0
3. Cody Bellinger (L)22.9%3.0
4. Paul Goldschmidt (R)21.9%3.0
5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)19.1%3.0
6. Spencer Jones (L)22.5%2.3
7. José Caballero (R)23.1%2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L)22.0%2.0
9. J.C. Escarra (L)16.2%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate21.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.7%
vs RHB21.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.1 BF
Expected batters faced22.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.4% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Masyn Winn (R)23.8%3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R)23.8%3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R)25.4%3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R)24.6%3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L)20.7%2.1
6. Blaze Jordan (R)22.5%2.0
7. José Fermín (R)23.7%2.0
8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.5%2.0
9. Nathan Church (L)23.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate19.8% Hits / BF
vs LHB20.2%
vs RHB20.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. George Springer (R)20.7%3.0
2. Nathan Lukes (L)27.4%3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.5%3.0
4. Jesús Sánchez (L)27.0%3.0
5. Ernie Clement (R)28.0%3.0
6. Brandon Valenzuela (L)23.2%2.0
7. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.5%2.0
8. Charles McAdoo (R)22.5%2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L)22.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate20.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB22.4%
vs RHB18.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.5 BF
Expected batters faced24.5
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.1% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Yandy Díaz (R)28.2%3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.2%3.0
3. Cedric Mullins (L)18.3%3.0
4. Junior Caminero (R)24.6%3.0
5. Chandler Simpson (L)23.9%3.0
6. Richie Palacios (L)19.5%3.0
7. Victor Mesa Jr. (L)19.8%2.5
8. Hunter Feduccia (L)21.3%2.0
9. Taylor Walls (L)20.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate23.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.7%
vs RHB22.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.2 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Wyatt Langford (R)20.4%3.0
2. Justin Foscue (R)23.6%3.0
3. Josh Jung (R)25.4%3.0
4. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.5%3.0
5. Jake Burger (R)25.4%2.4
6. Cody Freeman (R)21.7%2.0
7. Michael Helman (R)22.5%2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R)21.1%2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L)22.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB24.6%
vs RHB23.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload22.4 BF
Expected batters faced22.4
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.3 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.2% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Taylor Ward (R)21.5%3.0
2. Gunnar Henderson (L)21.2%3.0
3. Pete Alonso (R)23.2%3.0
4. Samuel Basallo (L)21.6%3.0
5. Leody Taveras (L)22.1%2.4
6. Colton Cowser (L)22.2%2.0
7. Tyler O'Neill (R)20.9%2.0
8. Jackson Holliday (L)22.4%2.0
9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate25.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB21.7%
vs RHB27.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.0 BF
Expected batters faced23.0
From recent starts0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.4 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.9% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Edouard Julien (L)22.8%3.0
2. Willi Castro (L)22.6%3.0
3. TJ Rumfield (L)22.5%3.0
4. Hunter Goodman (R)22.7%3.0
5. Troy Johnston (L)27.8%3.0
6. Cole Carrigg (L)22.5%2.0
7. Kyle Karros (R)20.7%2.0
8. Brett Sullivan (L)22.1%2.0
9. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.5%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.6% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.3%
vs RHB23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)21.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload21.9 BF
Expected batters faced21.9
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection5.5 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness22.7% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Christian Yelich (L)25.1%3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R)23.8%3.0
3. Brice Turang (L)23.2%3.0
4. William Contreras (R)22.7%2.9
5. Jake Bauers (L)22.1%2.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L)22.9%2.0
7. Sal Frelick (L)22.9%2.0
8. David Hamilton (L)21.8%2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R)19.7%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate24.2% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.9%
vs RHB23.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.2 BF
Expected batters faced24.2
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.0 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness23.3% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Cole Young (L)23.9%3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R)23.1%3.0
3. Josh Naylor (L)21.5%3.0
4. Luke Raley (L)21.9%3.0
5. Dominic Canzone (L)26.7%3.0
6. Victor Robles (R)25.3%3.0
7. Miles Mastrobuoni (L)21.7%2.2
8. Mitch Garver (R)22.5%2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L)23.3%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.0% Hits / BF
vs LHB25.4%
vs RHB25.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload24.8 BF
Expected batters faced24.8
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.1 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness21.8% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Carter Jensen (L)19.2%3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)23.0%3.0
3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.1%3.0
4. Maikel Garcia (R)22.3%3.0
5. Jac Caglianone (L)23.5%3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R)17.7%3.0
7. Michael Massey (L)23.3%2.8
8. Lane Thomas (R)20.4%2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L)22.6%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Pitcher hits allowed Rate26.9% Hits / BF
vs LHB23.4%
vs RHB27.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload23.1 BF
Expected batters faced23.1
From recent starts8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection6.7 H
Expected hits allowed — each lineup spot's probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness24.0% avg
BatterRateExp PA
1. Colby Thomas (R)22.9%3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L)22.9%3.0
3. Shea Langeliers (R)28.8%3.0
4. Jonah Heim (R)25.9%3.0
5. Jacob Wilson (R)25.1%3.0
6. Henry Bolte (R)25.5%2.1
7. Zack Gelof (R)23.1%2.0
8. Max Muncy (R)20.7%2.0
9. Alika Williams (R)20.9%2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
30 with a HLive count — updates as games play
1
Kyle FreelandP
COL@ATH· proj #30
10HFinal
2
Shane DrohanP
MILvsPHI· proj #2
8HFinal
3
Ben BrownP
CHC@SF· proj #6
7HFinal
T3
Luis CastilloP
SEA@WSH· proj #8
7HFinal
T3
Noah CameronP
KCvsHOU· proj #11
7HFinal
T3
Connor PrielippP
MINvsSTL· proj #21
7HFinal
T3
Mike BurrowsP
HOU@KC· proj #29
7HFinal
8
Jacob deGromP
TEX@BOS· proj #12
6HFinal
T8
Joey CantilloP
CLEvsDET· proj #16
6HFinal
T8
Sean BurkeP
CWSvsLAD· proj #17
6HFinal
T8
Trevor McDonaldP
SFvsCHC· proj #19
6HFinal
T8
Cam SchlittlerP
NYY@TOR· proj #22
6HFinal
T8
Ranger SuarezP
BOSvsTEX· proj #24
6HFinal
T8
Randy VásquezP
SD@BAL· proj #25
6HFinal
T8
Aaron NolaP
PHI@MIL· proj #27
6HFinal
16
Griffin JaxP
TB@LAA· proj #4
5HFinal
T16
Rhett LowderP
CINvsAZ· proj #7
5HFinal
T16
Tarik SkubalP
DET@CLE· proj #13
5HFinal
T16
Matthew LiberatoreP
STL@MIN· proj #18
5HFinal
T16
Joey EstesP
ATHvsCOL· proj #26
5HFinal
21
Sean ManaeaP
NYMvsATL· proj #3
4HFinal
T21
Martín PérezP
ATL@NYM· proj #5
4HFinal
T21
Cade CavalliP
WSHvsSEA· proj #28
4HFinal
24
Bubba ChandlerP
PITvsMIA· proj #9
3HFinal
T24
Trey GibsonP
BALvsSD· proj #10
3HFinal
T24
José SorianoP
LAAvsTB· proj #23
3HFinal
27
Michael SorokaP
AZ@CIN· proj #15
2HFinal
28
Lake BacharP
MIA@PIT· proj #1
1HFinal
T28
Yoshinobu YamamotoP
LAD@CWS· proj #14
1HFinal
T28
Kevin GausmanP
TORvsNYY· proj #20
1HFinal
Grades post here as games go final — how often our top-ranked matchups hit, vs the season.
Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Saturday, June 13, 2026
Lake Bachar (MIA) is the top hits allowed spot on the Saturday, June 13, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.3 H, with Shane Drohan (MIL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Lake Bachar
Lake Bachar (MIA) tops the Saturday, June 13, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 2.3 H vs PIT. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board
Shane Drohan (MIL) (77) — about 3.3 H vs PHI.
Sean Manaea (NYM) (71) — about 3.6 H vs ATL.
Griffin Jax (TB) (68) — about 3.7 H vs LAA.
Martín Pérez (ATL) (66) — about 3.8 H vs NYM.
Ben Brown (CHC) (65) — about 3.8 H vs SF.
How it played out
The top 10 starts averaged 4.7 H. Lake Bachar finished with 1. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the hits allowed board
Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Saturday, June 13, 2026)?
Lake Bachar (MIA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 2.3 H against PIT.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today?
The top projected starts on Saturday, June 13, 2026: Lake Bachar (~2.3 H), Shane Drohan (~3.3 H), Sean Manaea (~3.6 H), Griffin Jax (~3.7 H), Martín Pérez (~3.8 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated?
Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS?
Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks.
