Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 1, 2026)?

Jacob Misiorowski (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 7.0 K against WSH. A 32% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 1, 2026: Jacob Misiorowski (~7.0 K), Mike Burrows (~6.0 K), Will Warren (~5.9 K), Emmet Sheehan (~5.8 K), MacKenzie Gore (~5.8 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 1, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 1, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 5–6

AZaway

CHChomeTop matchup25 Final · 5–4

TEXaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–9

CINaway

PIThomeTop matchup53 Final · 6–1

MILaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–7

BALaway

NYYhomeTop matchup78 Final · 1–3

HOUaway

BOShomeTop matchup82 Final · 0–3

SFaway

TBhomeTop matchup51 Final · 6–5

PHIaway

MIAhomeTop matchup58 Final · 7–3

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup10 Final · 2–7

LADaway

STLhomeTop matchup70 Final · 8–6

ATLaway

COLhomeTop matchup46 Final · 4–3

NYMaway

LAAhomeTop matchup38 Final · 8–5

CLEaway

ATHhomeTop matchup59 Final · 8–2

CWSaway

SDhomeTop matchup52 Final · 7–6

KCaway

SEAhomeTop matchup69

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate31.6% K/BF

vs LHB34.2%

vs RHB24.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection7.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)28.9%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)17.2%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)20.1%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)17.4%3.0

5. Daylen Lile (L)18.3%2.9

6. José Tena (L)26.8%2.0

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)20.4%2.0

8. Drew Millas (L)21.1%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)19.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB26.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

2. Willson Contreras (R)26.1%3.0

3. Roman Anthony (L)26.0%3.0

4. Wilyer Abreu (L)21.8%3.0

5. Trevor Story (R)25.7%3.0

6. Marcelo Mayer (L)18.4%2.4

7. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)21.4%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)25.6%2.0

9. Caleb Durbin (R)16.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.9% K/BF

vs LHB26.7%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)26.5%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)18.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)18.6%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)22.6%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.2%2.4

6. Dylan Beavers (L)25.0%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.8%2.0

8. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.5%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)24.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)18.9%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)19.4%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.3%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)28.9%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.6%2.6

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.8%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)23.2%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)21.8%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)27.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB26.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gleyber Torres (R)18.9%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.1%3.0

3. Kerry Carpenter (L)25.0%3.0

4. Dillon Dingler (R)21.2%3.0

5. Riley Greene (L)25.7%2.6

6. Matt Vierling (R)17.6%2.0

7. Spencer Torkelson (R)24.2%2.0

8. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.3%2.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.7%

vs RHB29.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.4 BF

Expected batters faced21.4

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)19.1%3.0

2. Cal Raleigh (R)24.1%3.0

3. Julio Rodríguez (R)20.5%3.0

4. Josh Naylor (L)21.6%2.4

5. Randy Arozarena (R)21.5%2.0

6. Luke Raley (L)23.4%2.0

7. Cole Young (L)18.9%2.0

8. Dominic Canzone (L)22.4%2.0

9. Leo Rivas (R)23.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB22.5%

vs RHB25.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)17.2%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)22.6%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)27.7%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.3%3.0

5. Carlos Cortes (L)22.1%2.1

6. Tyler Soderstrom (L)24.9%2.0

7. Colby Thomas (R)25.8%2.0

8. Lawrence Butler (L)25.2%2.0

9. Jeff McNeil (L)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.3%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jakob Marsee (L)21.2%3.0

2. Kyle Stowers (L)23.9%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)22.0%3.0

4. Xavier Edwards (L)14.6%3.0

5. Liam Hicks (L)14.1%2.7

6. Agustín Ramírez (R)21.3%2.0

7. Connor Norby (R)29.8%2.0

8. Christopher Morel (R)23.6%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)15.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB23.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.