Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, April 30, 2026)?

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, April 30, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~5.8 K), Michael Soroka (~5.7 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.4 K), Peter Lambert (~5.9 K), Paul Skenes (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, April 30, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

Final · 5–2

DETaway

ATLhomeTop matchup71 Final · 3–10

HOUaway

BALhomeTop matchup89 Final · 10–5

STLaway

PIThomeTop matchup88 Final · 2–3

SFaway

PHIhomeTop matchup100 Final · 11–5

HOUaway

BALhomeTop matchup61 Final · 4–6

COLaway

CINhomeTop matchup36 Final · 5–4

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–13

AZaway

MILhomeTop matchup98 Final · 3–6

KCaway

ATHhomeTop matchup66 Final · 5–6

SFaway

PHIhomeTop matchup20 Final · 1–7

TORaway

MINhomeTop matchup95

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.9%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.6%3.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)24.2%3.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.0%3.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)20.6%3.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)24.4%3.0

6. Willy Adames (R)24.3%3.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.3%2.1

8. Drew Gilbert (L)23.8%2.0

9. Patrick Bailey (R)25.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.7% K/BF

vs LHB25.1%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Garrett Mitchell (L)30.3%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)21.8%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)15.4%3.0

4. Jake Bauers (L)22.9%3.0

5. Tyler Black (L)23.8%3.0

6. Luis Rengifo (L)16.2%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)14.2%2.0

8. Greg Jones (L)25.4%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB25.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.9%3.0

2. James Outman (L)26.4%3.0

3. Ryan Jeffers (R)21.3%3.0

4. Josh Bell (L)19.1%3.0

5. Austin Martin (R)20.6%3.0

6. Kody Clemens (L)24.1%2.0

7. Luke Keaschall (R)19.1%2.0

8. Brooks Lee (L)19.6%2.0

9. Royce Lewis (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB27.7%

vs RHB20.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Gunnar Henderson (L)25.7%3.0

2. Taylor Ward (R)18.6%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.2%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)23.1%3.0

5. Dylan Beavers (L)23.2%3.0

6. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.6%2.2

7. Colton Cowser (L)28.7%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)26.5%2.0

9. Blaze Alexander (R)26.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.4%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.0 BF

Expected batters faced21.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.2%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)18.3%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.5%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)29.2%2.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)26.8%2.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.2%2.0

7. Nathan Church (L)23.0%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)20.4%2.0

9. Victor Scott II (L)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.1% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB23.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.6 BF

Expected batters faced24.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.1%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)26.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.4%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)24.7%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)19.5%3.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)21.3%3.0

7. Edmundo Sosa (R)20.6%2.6

8. Justin Crawford (L)19.8%2.0

9. Rafael Marchán (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.0%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.1 BF

Expected batters faced23.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)29.0%3.0

2. Luis García Jr. (L)16.8%3.0

3. Daylen Lile (L)18.7%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)16.9%3.0

5. José Tena (L)26.3%3.0

6. Jorbit Vivas (L)17.8%2.1

7. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.0%2.0

8. Keibert Ruiz (L)18.9%2.0

9. Jacob Young (R)19.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)16.3%3.0

2. Gleyber Torres (R)17.7%3.0

3. Jahmai Jones (R)23.7%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)24.9%3.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.8%3.0

6. Wenceel Pérez (L)18.3%2.6

7. Matt Vierling (R)21.1%2.0

8. Hao-Yu Lee (R)23.7%2.0

9. Dillon Dingler (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.7%3.0

2. Jesús Sánchez (L)19.7%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)29.7%3.0

5. Daulton Varsho (L)22.5%2.6

6. Ernie Clement (R)14.0%2.0

7. Davis Schneider (R)25.8%2.0

8. Andrés Giménez (L)19.0%2.0

9. Brandon Valenzuela (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.6%

vs RHB22.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.3 BF

Expected batters faced23.3

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)20.2%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

3. Jac Caglianone (L)26.0%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)22.2%3.0

5. Michael Massey (L)25.0%3.0

6. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)24.8%2.3

7. Carter Jensen (L)19.4%2.0

8. Isaac Collins (R)24.7%2.0

9. Elias Díaz (R)20.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB22.1%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Geraldo Perdomo (L)18.2%3.0

2. Jose Fernandez (R)20.6%3.0

3. Jorge Barrosa (L)28.8%3.0

4. Adrian Del Castillo (L)25.1%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.7%3.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)19.3%2.0

7. Tim Tawa (R)22.7%2.0

8. Alek Thomas (L)19.4%2.0

9. James McCann (R)27.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.0%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Blaze Alexander (R)26.6%3.0

2. Colton Cowser (L)28.7%3.0

3. Dylan Beavers (L)23.2%3.0

4. Coby Mayo (R)26.5%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.5%2.5

6. Tyler O'Neill (R)22.7%2.0

7. Leody Taveras (L)20.5%2.0

8. Weston Wilson (R)22.6%2.0

9. Jeremiah Jackson (R)22.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.9% K/BF

vs LHB18.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.7 BF

Expected batters faced22.7

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Brice Matthews (R)25.9%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)14.2%3.0

3. Isaac Paredes (R)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.4%3.0

5. Dustin Harris (L)23.0%2.7

6. Yainer Diaz (R)19.6%2.0

7. Cam Smith (R)25.4%2.0

8. Daniel Johnson (L)22.9%2.0

9. Braden Shewmake (L)21.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB21.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jacob Wilson (R)17.8%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)23.2%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)27.8%3.0

4. Jeff McNeil (L)16.4%3.0

5. Darell Hernaiz (R)17.8%3.0

6. Carlos Cortes (L)19.7%2.1

7. Austin Wynns (R)20.7%2.0

8. Zack Gelof (R)24.2%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)24.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.7% K/BF

vs LHB20.8%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)24.8%3.0

2. Drake Baldwin (L)16.7%3.0

3. Ozzie Albies (R)13.9%3.0

4. Matt Olson (L)22.8%3.0

5. Austin Riley (R)20.5%3.0

6. Mauricio Dubón (R)19.4%2.7

7. Michael Harris II (L)18.9%2.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)23.4%2.0

9. Dominic Smith (L)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.1% K/BF

vs LHB15.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.5 BF

Expected batters faced22.5

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carlos Correa (R)21.0%3.0

2. Daniel Johnson (L)22.9%3.0

3. Shay Whitcomb (R)27.3%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)20.4%3.0

5. Jose Altuve (R)20.6%2.5

6. Yainer Diaz (R)19.6%2.0

7. Brice Matthews (R)25.9%2.0

8. Dustin Harris (L)23.0%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)18.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.3% K/BF

vs LHB17.8%

vs RHB19.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)29.0%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)22.1%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)24.6%3.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)19.6%3.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)18.5%3.0

6. Spencer Horwitz (L)17.1%2.0

7. Konnor Griffin (R)24.2%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)22.4%2.0

9. Nick Yorke (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)6.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mickey Moniak (L)27.4%3.0

2. Jake McCarthy (L)21.9%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)27.0%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)18.2%3.0

5. Willi Castro (R)22.9%2.6

6. TJ Rumfield (L)18.9%2.0

7. Kyle Karros (R)24.4%2.0

8. Edouard Julien (L)25.0%2.0

9. Troy Johnston (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.9% K/BF

vs LHB17.7%

vs RHB18.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. TJ Friedl (L)21.4%3.0

2. Matt McLain (R)26.9%3.0

3. Elly De La Cruz (L)26.0%3.0

4. Sal Stewart (R)20.6%2.7

5. Nathaniel Lowe (L)20.1%2.0

6. Tyler Stephenson (R)28.1%2.0

7. Dane Myers (R)21.9%2.0

8. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R)19.6%2.0

9. Will Benson (L)24.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.7% K/BF

vs LHB18.1%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Bo Bichette (R)20.2%3.0

2. Juan Soto (L)16.5%3.0

3. Austin Slater (R)23.1%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)24.1%2.1

5. Tyrone Taylor (R)21.9%2.0

6. Marcus Semien (R)20.1%2.0

7. Carson Benge (L)19.3%2.0

8. Francisco Alvarez (R)23.1%2.0

9. Ronny Mauricio (L)26.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate15.0% K/BF

vs LHB15.4%

vs RHB18.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.7 BF

Expected batters faced23.7

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)20.1%3.0

2. Dylan Moore (R)24.3%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)18.4%3.0

4. Adolis García (R)24.7%3.0

5. Bryson Stott (L)21.3%3.0

6. Alec Bohm (R)18.2%2.7

7. Justin Crawford (L)19.8%2.0

8. Brandon Marsh (L)19.5%2.0

9. Garrett Stubbs (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.5% K/BF

vs LHB20.5%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.0 BF

Expected batters faced14.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Heliot Ramos (R)24.6%2.0

2. Matt Chapman (R)24.2%2.0

3. Luis Arraez (L)14.0%2.0

4. Casey Schmitt (R)20.6%2.0

5. Rafael Devers (L)24.4%2.0

6. Willy Adames (R)24.3%1.0

7. Jung Hoo Lee (L)20.3%1.0

8. Patrick Bailey (R)25.7%1.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)23.8%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, April 30, 2026

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, April 30, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Michael Soroka (AZ) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. He's missing bats at a 24% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and SF has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Michael Soroka (AZ) (98) — about 5.7 K vs MIL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Kevin Gausman (TOR) (95) — about 5.4 K vs MIN: a 23% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Peter Lambert (HOU) (89) — about 5.9 K vs BAL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Paul Skenes (PIT) (88) — about 5.4 K vs STL: a 27% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Logan Webb (SF) (74) — about 5.1 K vs PHI: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Lance McCullers Jr. is the arm to exploit it (61).
BAL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Peter Lambert is the arm to exploit it (89).
CIN is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Michael Lorenzen is the arm to exploit it (31).
COL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Andrew Abbott is the arm to exploit it (36).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.6 strikeouts. Top play Cristopher Sánchez punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, April 30, 2026)?: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against SF. A 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, April 30, 2026: Cristopher Sánchez (~5.8 K), Michael Soroka (~5.7 K), Kevin Gausman (~5.4 K), Peter Lambert (~5.9 K), Paul Skenes (~5.4 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, April 30, 2026?: Cristopher Sánchez punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.