Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?

José Soriano (LAA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: José Soriano (~5.8 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.3 K), Luis Severino (~5.6 K), Eduardo Rodriguez (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.9Braydon FisherTOR vs NYYwe project 3.4 K vs the 1.5 lineOver 1.5+141

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 3–1

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup67 Final · 6–2

PITaway

STLhomeTop matchup92 Final · 2–1

NYMaway

WSHhomeTop matchup67 Final · 9–3

ATLaway

MIAhomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–0

TORaway

NYYhomeTop matchup68 Final · 3–2

ATHaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–2

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup77

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.7% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB23.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Alika Williams (R)21.9%3.0

2. Shea Langeliers (R)20.2%3.0

3. Nick Kurtz (L)24.0%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)25.1%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.4%3.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.2%2.6

7. Henry Bolte (R)21.9%2.0

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)19.2%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+100-135

BOLBetOnline+102-132

BRBetRivers+104-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-101-127

FDFanDuel+106-130

We project 5.8 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.5% K/BF

vs LHB24.5%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. JJ Wetherholt (L)19.4%3.0

2. Iván Herrera (R)20.2%3.0

3. Alec Burleson (L)17.5%3.0

4. Jordan Walker (R)23.8%3.0

5. Nolan Gorman (L)27.0%3.0

6. Masyn Winn (R)22.1%2.6

7. José Fermín (R)20.1%2.0

8. Pedro Pagés (R)22.4%2.0

9. Yohel Pozo (R)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+105-135

BRBetRivers+106-139

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+105-134

FDFanDuel+116-154

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB20.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)28.3%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.8%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.8%3.0

4. Vaughn Grissom (R)16.3%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)23.6%3.0

6. Josh Lowe (L)25.4%3.0

7. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%2.2

8. Logan O'Hoppe (R)27.4%2.0

9. Adam Frazier (L)24.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-150+110

BOLBetOnline-130+101

BRBetRivers-132+100

BOVBovada-130+100

DKDraftKings-131+103

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-132+100

We project 5.6 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.9%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willi Castro (R)24.7%3.0

2. Tyler Freeman (R)20.9%3.0

3. Hunter Goodman (R)30.6%3.0

4. Ezequiel Tovar (R)27.9%3.0

5. Kyle Karros (R)26.0%3.0

6. Jake McCarthy (L)20.5%3.0

7. Mickey Moniak (L)28.1%2.2

8. Troy Johnston (L)20.6%2.0

9. TJ Rumfield (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BRBetRivers+102-137

BOVBovada+105-135

DKDraftKings-106-120

FANFanatics+105-140

FDFanDuel+110-134

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.9%

vs RHB22.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)26.9%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.5%3.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)20.5%3.0

4. Spencer Horwitz (L)18.3%3.0

5. Konnor Griffin (R)23.7%3.0

6. Marcell Ozuna (R)25.1%2.2

7. Jake Mangum (L)21.9%2.0

8. Jared Triolo (R)22.0%2.0

9. Henry Davis (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-145+111

BRBetRivers-152+114

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-147+115

FANFanatics-145+110

FDFanDuel-134+110

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.4% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts2

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)21.0%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)16.7%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)19.8%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.2%3.0

5. Ernie Clement (R)15.8%2.2

6. Andrés Giménez (L)17.9%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)23.4%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (R)25.4%2.0

9. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+118-159

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+119-152

FANFanatics+125-165

FDFanDuel+120-148

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB24.1%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Daniel Schneemann (L)24.9%3.0

2. José Ramírez (L)18.2%3.0

3. Chase DeLauter (L)14.5%3.0

4. Rhys Hoskins (R)23.5%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)18.9%2.1

6. Angel Martínez (L)22.7%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)13.4%2.0

8. Patrick Bailey (L)23.2%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (L)16.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOLBetOnline-109-119

BRBetRivers-121-109

BOVBovada-105-125

DKDraftKings-121-106

FANFanatics-110-120

FDFanDuel-102-120

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB29.5%

vs RHB17.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.1 BF

Expected batters faced21.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)26.7%3.0

2. Curtis Mead (R)20.3%3.0

3. Jorbit Vivas (L)18.8%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)22.7%2.1

5. Dylan Crews (R)23.0%2.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)19.5%2.0

7. Luis García Jr. (L)21.0%2.0

8. José Tena (L)23.2%2.0

9. Keibert Ruiz (R)18.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-110-118

BRBetRivers-117-114

BOVBovada-110-120

DKDraftKings-110-116

FANFanatics-115-115

FDFanDuel-112-118

We project 5.3 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.9% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.4 BF

Expected batters faced22.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)18.7%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)17.9%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)18.4%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)22.8%3.0

5. Brett Baty (L)22.9%2.4

6. Marcus Semien (R)18.4%2.0

7. A.J. Ewing (L)22.2%2.0

8. MJ Melendez (L)27.0%2.0

9. Luis Torrens (R)21.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOLBetOnline-175+134

BRBetRivers-148+110

BOVBovada-150+115

DKDraftKings-165+129

FDFanDuel-144+118

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB18.6%

vs RHB19.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.4%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.7 BF

Expected batters faced24.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Eli White (R)21.2%3.0

2. Michael Harris II (L)20.9%3.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.2%3.0

4. Ozzie Albies (L)18.8%3.0

5. Dominic Smith (L)19.1%3.0

6. Austin Riley (R)25.5%3.0

7. Mauricio Dubón (R)18.6%2.7

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)20.2%2.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)22.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-124-108

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-126-101

FANFanatics-125-105

FDFanDuel-122+100

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.1% K/BF

vs LHB26.2%

vs RHB23.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)14.6%3.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)12.5%3.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)18.3%3.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.3%3.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)20.7%2.0

6. Christopher Morel (R)25.1%2.0

7. Heriberto Hernández (R)21.4%2.0

8. Pete Fairbanks (R)22.0%2.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)16.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

MGMBetMGM-155+115

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BRBetRivers-127-106

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-138+108

FDFanDuel-136+102

We project 4.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.4%

vs RHB21.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.2 BF

Expected batters faced22.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Matt Vierling (R)19.7%3.0

2. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.3%3.0

3. Dillon Dingler (R)22.4%3.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.1%3.0

5. Gage Workman (L)21.6%2.2

6. Spencer Torkelson (R)26.0%2.0

7. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.4%2.0

8. Colt Keith (L)21.4%2.0

9. Zach McKinstry (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+118-154

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+108-138

FDFanDuel+118-158

We project 4.8 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.3% K/BF

vs LHB23.5%

vs RHB22.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.8 BF

Expected batters faced13.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ben Rice (L)22.7%2.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.9%2.0

3. Cody Bellinger (L)17.0%2.0

4. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.7%2.0

5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)22.2%1.8

6. Spencer Jones (L)22.0%1.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)27.6%1.0

8. Anthony Volpe (R)23.7%1.0

9. J.C. Escarra (L)21.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 1.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+141-185

We project 3.4 K vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.3% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload16.9 BF

Expected batters faced16.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.6%2.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)21.8%2.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.8%2.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)19.3%2.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)15.0%2.0

6. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R)20.7%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.8%2.0

8. Jose Fernandez (R)25.8%1.9

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)25.0%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

BOLBetOnline+139-182

We project 2.7 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, May 21, 2026

José Soriano (LAA) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, May 21, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K, with Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: José Soriano

José Soriano (LAA) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. He's missing bats at a 25% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and ATH has been around league average, going down 22% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) (92) — about 5.3 K vs STL: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.
Luis Severino (ATH) (81) — about 5.6 K vs LAA: a 21% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Eduardo Rodriguez (AZ) (77) — about 5.3 K vs COL: a 19% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 24% of the time.
Dustin May (STL) (73) — about 4.7 K vs PIT: a 20% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (68) — about 5.0 K vs TOR: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Luis Severino is the arm to exploit it (81).
COL is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Eduardo Rodriguez is the arm to exploit it (77).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Braydon Fisher is the arm to exploit it (31).
ATH is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — José Soriano is the arm to exploit it (100).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 6.3 strikeouts. Top play José Soriano punched out 7. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

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Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, May 21, 2026)?: José Soriano (LAA) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 5.8 K against ATH. A 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, May 21, 2026: José Soriano (~5.8 K), Braxton Ashcraft (~5.3 K), Luis Severino (~5.6 K), Eduardo Rodriguez (~5.3 K), Dustin May (~4.7 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, May 21, 2026?: José Soriano punched out 7.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.