Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 22, 2026)?

Jacob deGrom (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against LAA. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 22, 2026: Jacob deGrom (~6.6 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.1 K), Michael Soroka (~6.0 K), Davis Martin (~5.9 K), Gavin Williams (~6.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Friday, May 22, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.4Davis MartinCWS vs SFwe project 5.9 K vs the 4.5 lineOver 4.5-165

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 4–2

HOUaway

CHChomeTop matchup59 Final · 1–0

CLEaway

PHIhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–2

TBaway

NYYhomeTop matchup63 Final · 2–6

PITaway

TORhomeTop matchup62 Final · 8–6

MINaway

BOShomeTop matchup66 Final · 1–2

NYMaway

MIAhomeTop matchup53 Final · 4–7

DETaway

BALhomeTop matchup59 Final · 4–5

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup53 Final · 2–0

SEAaway

KChomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–5

LADaway

MILhomeTop matchup65 Final · 6–9

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–2

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–7

ATHaway

SDhomeTop matchup45 Final · 9–4

CWSaway

SFhomeTop matchup82

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.8% K/BF

vs LHB27.9%

vs RHB25.8%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)20.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness24.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Zach Neto (R)29.1%3.0

2. Mike Trout (R)24.6%3.0

3. Nolan Schanuel (L)18.4%3.0

4. Jorge Soler (R)28.5%3.0

5. Jo Adell (R)24.8%2.6

6. Jose Siri (R)26.8%2.0

7. Oswald Peraza (R)22.5%2.0

8. Sebastián Rivero (R)24.2%2.0

9. Donovan Walton (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-118-112

BRBetRivers-117-114

FANFanatics-120-110

BOLBetOnline-110-118

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-121-106

We project 6.6 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.7% K/BF

vs LHB28.8%

vs RHB25.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload25.4 BF

Expected batters faced25.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Angel Martínez (R)18.1%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)14.5%3.0

3. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.1%3.0

4. Chase DeLauter (L)17.4%3.0

5. Travis Bazzana (L)21.1%3.0

6. Brayan Rocchio (R)18.8%3.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)17.1%3.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)20.8%2.4

9. Petey Halpin (L)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-110-110

BOLBetOnline-119-109

FANFanatics-125-105

DKDraftKings-130+102

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOVBovada-115-115

BRBetRivers-122-109

We project 6.1 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB27.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jake McCarthy (L)19.6%3.0

2. Hunter Goodman (R)26.1%3.0

3. Kyle Karros (R)21.7%3.0

4. Tyler Freeman (R)15.1%3.0

5. Troy Johnston (L)22.6%3.0

6. Willi Castro (L)26.3%2.4

7. Ezequiel Tovar (R)22.8%2.0

8. Sterlin Thompson (L)22.0%2.0

9. Chad Stevens (R)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-152+124

BOLBetOnline-154+118

DKDraftKings-114-111

BOVBovada-165+125

BRBetRivers-157+118

We project 6.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.2%

vs RHB25.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Willy Adames (R)25.1%3.0

2. Luis Arraez (L)8.1%3.0

3. Casey Schmitt (R)21.3%3.0

4. Rafael Devers (L)26.9%3.0

5. Matt Chapman (R)24.2%3.0

6. Bryce Eldridge (L)23.7%2.6

7. Jesus Rodriguez (R)22.0%2.0

8. Victor Bericoto (R)22.0%2.0

9. Harrison Bader (R)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-172+128

DKDraftKings-165+129

BOVBovada-165+125

BRBetRivers-186+138

We project 5.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.9% K/BF

vs LHB27.1%

vs RHB23.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.3 BF

Expected batters faced24.3

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trea Turner (R)22.9%3.0

2. Kyle Schwarber (L)29.4%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)20.6%3.0

4. Alec Bohm (R)16.7%3.0

5. Brandon Marsh (L)20.7%3.0

6. Adolis García (R)28.9%3.0

7. Bryson Stott (L)20.4%2.3

8. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.2%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-108-122

BOLBetOnline-119-109

DKDraftKings-103-124

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOVBovada-125-105

BRBetRivers-107-124

We project 6.3 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.8% K/BF

vs LHB28.4%

vs RHB21.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Maikel Garcia (R)15.8%3.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)19.1%3.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)17.2%3.0

4. Salvador Perez (R)21.7%3.0

5. Carter Jensen (L)27.4%3.0

6. Jac Caglianone (L)24.4%2.2

7. Isaac Collins (L)24.0%2.0

8. Michael Massey (L)17.9%2.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)22.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-106-125

BOLBetOnline+100-130

DKDraftKings-104-122

MGMBetMGM-105-125

BOVBovada-110-120

BRBetRivers-118-113

We project 5.7 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.2% K/BF

vs LHB21.8%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)21.8%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)27.5%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)18.6%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)21.1%3.0

5. Masataka Yoshida (L)18.2%2.0

6. Nick Sogard (R)21.6%2.0

7. Marcelo Mayer (L)22.1%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)21.0%2.0

9. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)21.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-104-128

BOLBetOnline-103-125

DKDraftKings-104-123

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOVBovada-105-125

BRBetRivers-105-129

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate27.6% K/BF

vs LHB25.5%

vs RHB26.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.2 BF

Expected batters faced21.2

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Shohei Ohtani (L)23.3%3.0

2. Mookie Betts (R)16.1%3.0

3. Freddie Freeman (L)17.2%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.2%2.3

5. Andy Pages (R)20.3%2.0

6. Santiago Espinal (R)18.5%2.0

7. Teoscar Hernández (R)26.3%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)26.7%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)16.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-104-118

BOLBetOnline-110-118

DKDraftKings-110-116

MGMBetMGM-120-110

FANFanatics-115-115

BOVBovada-115-115

BRBetRivers+102-137

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)17.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts5

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)22.6%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (R)21.3%3.0

3. Austin Martin (R)16.4%3.0

4. James Outman (L)27.1%3.0

5. Trevor Larnach (L)24.1%3.0

6. Ryan Kreidler (R)19.9%2.0

7. Kody Clemens (L)20.1%2.0

8. Luke Keaschall (R)19.0%2.0

9. Alex Jackson (R)27.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-115-105

BOLBetOnline-119-109

FANFanatics-115-115

DKDraftKings-131+103

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOVBovada-130+100

BRBetRivers-103-130

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.0% K/BF

vs LHB27.0%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts0

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Chandler Simpson (L)14.5%3.0

2. Junior Caminero (R)19.8%3.0

3. Jonathan Aranda (L)22.3%3.0

4. Carson Williams (R)27.0%3.0

5. Richie Palacios (L)21.9%3.0

6. Ryan Vilade (R)20.5%2.0

7. Cedric Mullins (L)21.8%2.0

8. Nick Fortes (R)19.2%2.0

9. Taylor Walls (L)24.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-154+126

BOLBetOnline-175+134

DKDraftKings-147+115

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BOVBovada-160+120

BRBetRivers-157+118

We project 5.5 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.5% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB22.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Oneil Cruz (L)28.2%3.0

2. Brandon Lowe (L)21.3%3.0

3. Nick Gonzales (R)16.2%3.0

4. Bryan Reynolds (L)21.9%3.0

5. Konnor Griffin (R)22.7%3.0

6. Jared Triolo (R)22.1%2.4

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)21.6%2.0

8. Esmerlyn Valdez (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jake Mangum (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-158+128

BOLBetOnline-156+121

BOVBovada-150+115

BRBetRivers-165+123

MGMBetMGM-160+120

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.6% K/BF

vs LHB23.1%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.0 BF

Expected batters faced24.0

From recent starts6

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Nico Hoerner (R)11.1%3.0

2. Michael Busch (L)20.7%3.0

3. Alex Bregman (R)18.7%3.0

4. Ian Happ (L)29.9%3.0

5. Seiya Suzuki (R)27.4%3.0

6. Moisés Ballesteros (L)21.5%3.0

7. Carson Kelly (R)20.5%2.0

8. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)23.8%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+122-162

BOLBetOnline+120-156

DKDraftKings+115-147

MGMBetMGM+120-160

BOVBovada+120-160

BRBetRivers+132-177

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.3% K/BF

vs LHB20.7%

vs RHB22.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.6 BF

Expected batters faced23.6

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Sam Antonacci (L)15.8%3.0

2. Munetaka Murakami (L)25.9%3.0

3. Miguel Vargas (R)18.7%3.0

4. Colson Montgomery (L)27.7%3.0

5. Chase Meidroth (R)22.7%3.0

6. Andrew Benintendi (L)22.7%2.6

7. Edgar Quero (L)25.3%2.0

8. Tristan Peters (L)21.2%2.0

9. Derek Hill (R)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-144+118

BOLBetOnline-164+125

FANFanatics-160+120

MGMBetMGM-160+120

BOVBovada-150+115

BRBetRivers-152+114

We project 5.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.2%

vs RHB25.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)16.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.7 BF

Expected batters faced21.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)25.2%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)24.2%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)19.0%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)24.0%2.7

5. Samuel Basallo (L)24.1%2.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)20.7%2.0

7. Tyler O'Neill (R)20.2%2.0

8. Blaze Alexander (R)26.7%2.0

9. Jackson Holliday (L)25.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-106-125

FANFanatics-110-120

BOLBetOnline-112-115

DKDraftKings-118-108

MGMBetMGM-120-110

BOVBovada-105-125

BRBetRivers-114-117

We project 5.1 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.9% K/BF

vs LHB26.1%

vs RHB22.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carson Benge (L)19.5%3.0

2. Bo Bichette (R)19.1%3.0

3. Juan Soto (L)19.0%3.0

4. Mark Vientos (R)23.3%3.0

5. Tyrone Taylor (R)19.8%2.9

6. Marcus Semien (R)19.6%2.0

7. Vidal Bruján (L)20.6%2.0

8. Nick Morabito (R)22.0%2.0

9. MJ Melendez (L)27.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-128+104

BOLBetOnline-133+103

FANFanatics-125-105

DKDraftKings-134+105

MGMBetMGM-130-105

BOVBovada-130+100

BRBetRivers-136+102

We project 5.2 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.6% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB20.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.2%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. James Wood (L)25.9%3.0

2. Andrés Chaparro (R)21.1%3.0

3. Curtis Mead (R)18.6%3.0

4. CJ Abrams (L)21.0%3.0

5. Dylan Crews (R)21.0%3.0

6. Daylen Lile (L)18.6%3.0

7. Paxton Schultz (L)22.0%2.1

8. Drew Millas (L)20.0%2.0

9. Nasim Nuñez (L)21.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

DKDraftKings-123-104

BOLBetOnline-130+100

FANFanatics-125-105

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BOVBovada-125-105

BRBetRivers-120-112

FDFanDuel-122+100

We project 5.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Andrew McCutchen (R)24.8%3.0

2. Josh Jung (R)18.9%3.0

3. Brandon Nimmo (L)21.2%3.0

4. Ezequiel Duran (R)23.4%3.0

5. Jake Burger (R)22.6%2.8

6. Alejandro Osuna (L)18.0%2.0

7. Justin Foscue (R)25.0%2.0

8. Sam Haggerty (L)22.4%2.0

9. Danny Jansen (R)21.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+100-122

BRBetRivers+110-148

BOLBetOnline+100-130

MGMBetMGM+105-140

BOVBovada-115-115

DKDraftKings-108-117

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB18.7%

vs RHB22.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.6 BF

Expected batters faced21.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Colby Thomas (R)24.0%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)24.2%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)20.8%3.0

4. Brent Rooker (R)24.5%2.6

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)19.0%2.0

6. Zack Gelof (R)24.3%2.0

7. Henry Bolte (R)21.6%2.0

8. Jeff McNeil (L)17.5%2.0

9. Lawrence Butler (L)25.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+112-138

MGMBetMGM-105-125

FANFanatics+105-140

BOLBetOnline+106-137

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+113-144

BRBetRivers+112-148

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.9%

vs RHB20.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. J.P. Crawford (L)16.7%3.0

2. Julio Rodríguez (R)21.3%3.0

3. Randy Arozarena (R)24.1%3.0

4. Dominic Canzone (L)23.6%3.0

5. Patrick Wisdom (R)24.9%3.0

6. Cole Young (L)22.3%2.2

7. Mitch Garver (R)22.6%2.0

8. Luke Raley (L)24.3%2.0

9. Colt Emerson (L)22.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-144+118

BOLBetOnline-161+124

DKDraftKings-141+110

MGMBetMGM-135+100

FANFanatics-140+105

BOVBovada-145+110

BRBetRivers-132+100

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.9% K/BF

vs LHB19.2%

vs RHB18.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)20.1%3.0

2. Aaron Judge (R)28.4%3.0

3. Ben Rice (L)22.9%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.8%3.0

5. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.2%3.0

6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)27.7%2.5

7. José Caballero (R)19.4%2.0

8. Ryan McMahon (L)27.9%2.0

9. Austin Wells (L)27.2%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-152

FANFanatics+120-160

BOLBetOnline+118-154

DKDraftKings+118-150

MGMBetMGM+115-155

BOVBovada+115-150

BRBetRivers+112-148

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.4%

vs RHB19.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.4 BF

Expected batters faced23.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)20.8%3.0

2. Isaac Paredes (R)20.1%3.0

3. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.4%3.0

4. Christian Walker (R)22.4%3.0

5. Jake Meyers (R)22.8%3.0

6. Nick Allen (R)21.1%2.4

7. Cam Smith (R)26.9%2.0

8. Zach Cole (L)29.5%2.0

9. Christian Vázquez (R)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-102-120

FANFanatics-110-120

BOLBetOnline-109-119

DKDraftKings-110-116

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOVBovada-105-125

BRBetRivers+102-136

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.2% K/BF

vs LHB20.0%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)25.9%3.0

2. Miguel Andujar (R)20.4%3.0

3. Gavin Sheets (L)20.3%3.0

4. Manny Machado (R)20.3%3.0

5. Xander Bogaerts (R)16.3%3.0

6. Ramón Laureano (R)24.3%2.2

7. Sung-Mun Song (L)21.1%2.0

8. Bryce Johnson (R)24.8%2.0

9. Rodolfo Durán (R)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-128-104

MGMBetMGM-115-115

BOLBetOnline-130+100

BOVBovada-125-105

DKDraftKings-141+110

BRBetRivers-115-115

We project 4.7 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.1% K/BF

vs LHB20.3%

vs RHB17.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)11.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.2 BF

Expected batters faced24.2

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jackson Chourio (R)23.3%3.0

2. Brice Turang (L)23.7%3.0

3. William Contreras (R)21.3%3.0

4. Christian Yelich (L)22.2%3.0

5. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.6%3.0

6. Blake Perkins (R)19.8%3.0

7. Luis Rengifo (R)20.8%2.2

8. Sal Frelick (L)18.5%2.0

9. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-166+124

BOLBetOnline-161+124

DKDraftKings-156+122

MGMBetMGM-165+125

BOVBovada-165+125

BRBetRivers-180+135

We project 4.3 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.6% K/BF

vs LHB19.1%

vs RHB21.4%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.3% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.3%3.0

2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)14.3%3.0

3. Daulton Varsho (L)23.1%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)30.0%3.0

5. Yohendrick Piñango (L)22.0%2.1

6. Ernie Clement (R)13.9%2.0

7. Myles Straw (R)16.6%2.0

8. Brandon Valenzuela (L)21.4%2.0

9. Andrés Giménez (L)21.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-154+116

FANFanatics-160+120

BOLBetOnline-149+115

DKDraftKings-163+127

BOVBovada-160+120

BRBetRivers-162+120

We project 4.2 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate14.9% K/BF

vs LHB15.9%

vs RHB16.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (L)16.3%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)22.6%3.0

3. Geraldo Perdomo (L)16.1%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)18.6%3.0

5. Ildemaro Vargas (L)14.8%2.6

6. Jose Fernandez (R)25.6%2.0

7. Gabriel Moreno (R)20.3%2.0

8. Adrian Del Castillo (L)28.8%2.0

9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)27.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 2.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-118-112

BOLBetOnline-125-103

DKDraftKings-118-108

FANFanatics-115-115

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BOVBovada-135+105

BRBetRivers-112-120

We project 3.4 K vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.7% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.4 BF

Expected batters faced13.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kevin McGonigle (L)20.5%2.0

2. Dillon Dingler (R)23.7%2.0

3. Colt Keith (L)21.6%2.0

4. Riley Greene (L)26.7%2.0

5. Spencer Torkelson (R)25.0%1.4

6. Wenceel Pérez (R)20.0%1.0

7. Zach McKinstry (L)22.9%1.0

8. Gage Workman (L)21.6%1.0

9. Hao-Yu Lee (R)25.5%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB24.6%

vs RHB18.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload14.7 BF

Expected batters faced14.7

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness19.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Xavier Edwards (L)15.0%2.0

2. Liam Hicks (L)13.0%2.0

3. Otto Lopez (R)19.2%2.0

4. Kyle Stowers (L)24.4%2.0

5. Jakob Marsee (L)21.3%2.0

6. Esteury Ruiz (R)22.4%1.7

7. Graham Pauley (L)23.0%1.0

8. Joe Mack (L)22.0%1.0

9. Javier Sanoja (R)16.6%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB23.0%

vs RHB20.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)7.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection2.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)22.7%2.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)17.5%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)24.1%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)12.8%2.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)22.7%1.6

6. Eli White (R)22.1%1.0

7. Dominic Smith (L)21.5%1.0

8. Ha-Seong Kim (R)22.0%1.0

9. Chadwick Tromp (R)23.2%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Friday, May 22, 2026

Jacob deGrom (TEX) is the top strikeout start on the Friday, May 22, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K, with Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Jacob deGrom

Jacob deGrom (TEX) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against LAA. He's missing bats at a 28% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and LAA has been whiff-prone, going down 25% of the time. He's lined up for about 23 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) (87) — about 6.1 K vs CLE: a 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 19% of the time.
Michael Soroka (AZ) (84) — about 6.0 K vs COL: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Davis Martin (CWS) (82) — about 5.9 K vs SF: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Gavin Williams (CLE) (76) — about 6.3 K vs PHI: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Logan Gilbert (SEA) (72) — about 5.7 K vs KC: a 26% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

LAA is striking out 25% of the time in this spot — Jacob deGrom is the arm to exploit it (100).
NYY is striking out 24% of the time in this spot — Nick Martinez is the arm to exploit it (44).
BAL is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Jack Flaherty is the arm to exploit it (59).
DET is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Keegan Akin is the arm to exploit it (13).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 5.4 strikeouts. Top play Jacob deGrom punched out 3. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Friday, May 22, 2026)?: Jacob deGrom (TEX) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.6 K against LAA. A 28% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 25% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Friday, May 22, 2026: Jacob deGrom (~6.6 K), Cristopher Sánchez (~6.1 K), Michael Soroka (~6.0 K), Davis Martin (~5.9 K), Gavin Williams (~6.3 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Friday, May 22, 2026?: Jacob deGrom punched out 3.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.