Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 4, 2026)?

Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.

What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?

The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 4, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.6 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Jared Jones (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.

How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?

It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.

Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?

Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.

What's the projected strikeout number?

A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.

Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.

What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?

Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.

Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?

A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.

What's the confidence meter?

How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.

Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?

Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)

Are these confirmed or projected lineups?

Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.

Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Strikeouts Board · Archive

Best MLB strikeouts matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026

Every starting pitcher on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by strikeout upside against today's lineup. Whiff rate, the bats he's facing, how deep he goes, and command. Higher means more K's. Results show how each start played out.

★ Plays of the Day PRO

Our highest-conviction strikeout calls — starts where our projection diverges 1.25+ K from the book's line, the segment where our backtested edge concentrates. Overs and Unders alike, ranked by the gap (Δ).

Δ1.4Chris SaleATL vs TORwe project 6.1 K vs the 7.5 lineUnder 7.5-137

Research signal — in backtesting our edge concentrated in the largest of these gaps, not across every start. Display only, not betting advice.

Final · 4–6

SDaway

PHIhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–2

BALaway

BOShomeTop matchup41 Final · 1–2

CLEaway

NYYhomeTop matchup52 Final · 12–9

SFaway

MILhomeTop matchup45 Final · 7–2

TORaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–6

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup46 Final · 6–7

ATHaway

CHChomeTop matchup77 Final · 5–1

PITaway

HOUhomeTop matchup64 Final · 2–3

LADaway

AZhomeTop matchup40

#Pitcher · MatchupScore

Pitcher Strikeout Rate28.9% K/BF

vs LHB28.0%

vs RHB27.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)19.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection6.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. George Springer (R)20.9%3.0

2. Ernie Clement (R)15.3%3.0

3. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R)17.0%3.0

4. Kazuma Okamoto (R)21.1%3.0

5. Andrés Giménez (L)17.3%3.0

6. Nathan Lukes (L)22.0%3.0

7. Myles Straw (R)22.4%2.1

8. Tyler Heineman (R)21.8%2.0

9. Daulton Varsho (L)22.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 7.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+122-150

FANFanatics+115-150

BOVBovada+120-160

BRBetRivers+120-162

DKDraftKings+108-137

MGMBetMGM+110-150

We project 6.1 K vs the 7.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.5% K/BF

vs LHB23.8%

vs RHB24.9%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)18.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.2 BF

Expected batters faced23.2

From recent starts7

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.7% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R)18.1%3.0

2. Gavin Sheets (L)22.4%3.0

3. Manny Machado (R)22.7%3.0

4. Ty France (R)22.1%3.0

5. Jackson Merrill (L)24.0%3.0

6. Xander Bogaerts (R)19.8%2.2

7. Miguel Andujar (R)18.9%2.0

8. Jase Bowen (R)22.0%2.0

9. Bryce Johnson (L)25.4%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-115-105

FANFanatics-120-110

BOVBovada-120-110

DKDraftKings-109-117

MGMBetMGM-110-120

BRBetRivers-106-125

We project 5.6 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.1% K/BF

vs LHB24.4%

vs RHB21.3%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.1 BF

Expected batters faced24.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness23.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Henry Bolte (R)24.3%3.0

2. Nick Kurtz (L)28.2%3.0

3. Shea Langeliers (R)19.9%3.0

4. Lawrence Butler (L)24.3%3.0

5. Tyler Soderstrom (L)23.4%3.0

6. Jonah Heim (R)21.8%3.0

7. Zack Gelof (R)23.1%2.1

8. Darell Hernaiz (R)18.9%2.0

9. Alika Williams (R)24.1%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 6.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+112-138

FANFanatics+100-130

BOVBovada+110-145

BRBetRivers+108-143

DKDraftKings+107-136

We project 5.7 K vs the 6.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate24.1% K/BF

vs LHB22.8%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.5%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.8 BF

Expected batters faced22.8

From recent starts1

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.3 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.1% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jeremy Peña (R)17.9%3.0

2. Yordan Alvarez (L)19.6%3.0

3. Christian Walker (R)23.4%3.0

4. Isaac Paredes (R)16.4%3.0

5. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)24.3%2.8

6. Cam Smith (R)24.9%2.0

7. Taylor Trammell (L)29.9%2.0

8. Collin Price (R)22.0%2.0

9. Jake Meyers (R)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-112-118

BOVBovada-120-110

FANFanatics-120-110

DKDraftKings-112-114

MGMBetMGM-125-105

BRBetRivers-103-130

We project 5.3 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.9% K/BF

vs LHB20.1%

vs RHB24.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.6 BF

Expected batters faced22.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)22.2%3.0

2. Michael Conforto (L)25.9%3.0

3. Michael Busch (L)20.9%3.0

4. Alex Bregman (R)17.4%3.0

5. Ian Happ (L)25.5%2.6

6. Nico Hoerner (R)11.4%2.0

7. Kevin Alcántara (R)23.6%2.0

8. Seiya Suzuki (R)25.8%2.0

9. Dansby Swanson (R)23.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-166

BOVBovada+125-165

BRBetRivers+123-165

DKDraftKings+116-149

MGMBetMGM+120-160

We project 4.9 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate23.9% K/BF

vs LHB22.2%

vs RHB24.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.6%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts4

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection5.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.9% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Manzardo (L)24.2%3.0

2. José Ramírez (R)13.4%3.0

3. Rhys Hoskins (R)27.0%3.0

4. Travis Bazzana (L)28.1%3.0

5. Angel Martínez (R)20.1%2.1

6. Chase DeLauter (L)18.4%2.0

7. Steven Kwan (L)17.0%2.0

8. Austin Hedges (R)19.7%2.0

9. Brayan Rocchio (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 5.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+130-160

BOVBovada+125-165

DKDraftKings+114-146

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+110-148

We project 5.0 K vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.1% K/BF

vs LHB21.2%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.8%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.4 BF

Expected batters faced24.4

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.8 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Byron Buxton (R)25.8%3.0

2. Brooks Lee (L)19.1%3.0

3. Kody Clemens (L)23.5%3.0

4. Austin Martin (R)19.5%3.0

5. Josh Bell (L)22.3%3.0

6. Luke Keaschall (R)16.8%3.0

7. Victor Caratini (L)19.0%2.4

8. Tristan Gray (L)24.3%2.0

9. Orlando Arcia (R)18.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-130-102

FANFanatics-130+100

BOVBovada-135+105

BRBetRivers-127-105

MGMBetMGM-150+110

DKDraftKings-131+103

We project 4.8 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate22.0% K/BF

vs LHB22.0%

vs RHB22.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)13.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.0 BF

Expected batters faced22.0

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.7 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Casey Schmitt (R)22.2%3.0

2. Buddy Kennedy (R)22.0%3.0

3. Jonah Cox (R)22.0%3.0

4. Willy Adames (R)25.1%3.0

5. Jung Hoo Lee (L)13.3%2.0

6. Bryce Eldridge (L)21.0%2.0

7. Matt Chapman (R)20.8%2.0

8. Eric Haase (R)24.8%2.0

9. Drew Gilbert (L)17.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-148+120

FANFanatics-150+115

BOVBovada-160+120

BRBetRivers-159+118

DKDraftKings-160+125

MGMBetMGM-160+120

We project 4.7 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate25.6% K/BF

vs LHB24.8%

vs RHB24.6%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.3%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload18.1 BF

Expected batters faced18.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Spencer Horwitz (L)15.1%2.1

2. Brandon Lowe (L)23.6%2.0

3. Bryan Reynolds (L)23.0%2.0

4. Ryan O'Hearn (L)20.8%2.0

5. Nick Gonzales (R)17.6%2.0

6. Oneil Cruz (L)29.4%2.0

7. Endy Rodríguez (L)22.1%2.0

8. Jake Mangum (L)17.8%2.0

9. Jared Triolo (R)26.8%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.8% K/BF

vs LHB16.9%

vs RHB22.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)15.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.4 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.5% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Taylor Ward (R)22.9%3.0

2. Gunnar Henderson (L)22.7%3.0

3. Adley Rutschman (L)17.7%3.0

4. Pete Alonso (R)21.0%3.0

5. Samuel Basallo (L)21.2%3.0

6. Leody Taveras (L)23.3%2.0

7. Colton Cowser (L)25.1%2.0

8. Coby Mayo (R)28.0%2.0

9. Jackson Holliday (L)20.5%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-162+132

BOVBovada-170+130

DKDraftKings-163+128

BRBetRivers-150+112

We project 4.4 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate19.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.1%

vs RHB19.1%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.0%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.0 BF

Expected batters faced23.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.6 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Trent Grisham (L)18.6%3.0

2. Ben Rice (L)21.1%3.0

3. Paul Goldschmidt (R)23.5%3.0

4. Cody Bellinger (L)16.0%3.0

5. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L)25.4%3.0

6. José Caballero (R)17.1%2.0

7. Ryan McMahon (L)29.4%2.0

8. J.C. Escarra (L)20.8%2.0

9. Max Schuemann (R)22.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+116-154

FANFanatics+120-160

BOVBovada+115-150

DKDraftKings+122-156

MGMBetMGM+110-150

BRBetRivers+116-155

We project 4.6 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate20.5% K/BF

vs LHB21.9%

vs RHB19.5%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)12.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload24.8 BF

Expected batters faced24.8

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.5 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.0% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ketel Marte (R)17.5%3.0

2. Corbin Carroll (L)20.7%3.0

3. Gabriel Moreno (R)19.4%3.0

4. Nolan Arenado (R)18.0%3.0

5. Ryan Waldschmidt (R)19.1%3.0

6. Adrian Del Castillo (L)26.9%3.0

7. Geraldo Perdomo (R)15.9%2.8

8. Jose Fernandez (R)22.4%2.0

9. Tommy Troy (R)20.0%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-132+100

BOVBovada-135+105

FANFanatics-125-105

DKDraftKings-128+100

MGMBetMGM-135+100

BRBetRivers-130-103

We project 4.5 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.5% K/BF

vs LHB17.2%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.1%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload23.5 BF

Expected batters faced23.5

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness18.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Mookie Betts (R)16.8%3.0

2. Freddie Freeman (L)18.7%3.0

3. Andy Pages (R)18.8%3.0

4. Kyle Tucker (L)19.9%3.0

5. Will Smith (R)16.9%3.0

6. Santiago Espinal (R)19.9%2.5

7. Alex Call (R)18.9%2.0

8. Dalton Rushing (L)22.8%2.0

9. Miguel Rojas (R)16.6%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+124-152

BOVBovada+120-160

DKDraftKings+126-161

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+130-175

We project 4.0 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate16.6% K/BF

vs LHB16.1%

vs RHB20.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload21.9 BF

Expected batters faced21.9

From recent starts3

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.1 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.6% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Kyle Schwarber (L)32.2%3.0

2. Trea Turner (R)22.8%3.0

3. Bryce Harper (L)19.6%3.0

4. Brandon Marsh (L)22.9%2.9

5. Alec Bohm (R)16.0%2.0

6. Bryson Stott (L)18.7%2.0

7. J.T. Realmuto (R)20.8%2.0

8. Adolis García (R)29.8%2.0

9. Justin Crawford (L)20.9%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-136+102

BOVBovada-135+105

DKDraftKings-144+113

MGMBetMGM-140+105

BRBetRivers-143+108

We project 4.1 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate18.2% K/BF

vs LHB22.9%

vs RHB17.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)8.7%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.1 BF

Expected batters faced22.1

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection4.2 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.4% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Jarren Duran (L)24.1%3.0

2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R)26.1%3.0

3. Wilyer Abreu (L)19.0%3.0

4. Willson Contreras (R)20.0%3.0

5. Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)20.6%2.1

6. Anthony Seigler (L)22.2%2.0

7. Caleb Durbin (R)17.1%2.0

8. Carlos Narváez (R)22.2%2.0

9. Connor Wong (R)21.3%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 4.5we lean Under

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel+114-152

FANFanatics+110-145

BOVBovada+110-145

DKDraftKings+112-143

MGMBetMGM+125-165

BRBetRivers+115-155

We project 4.2 K vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate17.7% K/BF

vs LHB19.7%

vs RHB16.2%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)9.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload22.9 BF

Expected batters faced22.9

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.9 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness20.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Christian Yelich (L)28.6%3.0

2. Jackson Chourio (R)22.4%3.0

3. Gary Sánchez (R)22.7%3.0

4. Joey Ortiz (R)17.7%3.0

5. Blake Perkins (L)24.9%2.9

6. Andrew Vaughn (R)17.3%2.0

7. Sal Frelick (L)13.9%2.0

8. Luis Rengifo (L)14.2%2.0

9. David Hamilton (L)19.7%2.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Strikeout Line · O/U 3.5we lean Over

BookOverUnder

FDFanDuel-118-112

BOVBovada-120-110

BRBetRivers-121-110

DKDraftKings-117-109

MGMBetMGM-125-105

We project 3.9 K vs the 3.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate26.3% K/BF

vs LHB26.5%

vs RHB24.0%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)14.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.0 BF

Expected batters faced13.0

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness21.2% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Ronald Acuña Jr. (R)25.3%2.0

2. Mauricio Dubón (R)16.0%2.0

3. Matt Olson (L)21.7%2.0

4. Ozzie Albies (R)12.7%2.0

5. Michael Harris II (L)20.2%1.0

6. Dominic Smith (L)20.1%1.0

7. Austin Riley (R)28.6%1.0

8. Mike Yastrzemski (L)24.5%1.0

9. Austin Wynns (R)21.9%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Pitcher Strikeout Rate21.8% K/BF

vs LHB21.7%

vs RHB21.7%

K-BB% (command-adj. skill)10.9%

How often he strikes out the batters he faces, by hand.

Workload13.6 BF

Expected batters faced13.6

From recent starts8

How deep he tends to go — the strikeout-count multiplier.

Projection3.0 K

Expected strikeouts — each lineup spot's strikeout probability (his rate × the hitter's rate, combined via log5) summed across his projected plate appearances.

Opposing Lineup · K-Proneness22.8% avg

BatterK rateExp PA

1. Carter Jensen (L)28.0%2.0

2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R)21.1%2.0

3. Vinnie Pasquantino (L)15.7%2.0

4. Tyler Tolbert (R)23.8%2.0

5. Lane Thomas (R)24.2%1.6

6. Isaac Collins (L)26.1%1.0

7. Alex Lange (R)22.0%1.0

8. Josh Rojas (L)23.0%1.0

9. Kyle Isbel (L)21.3%1.0

Each hitter's strikeout rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.

Best MLB Strikeout Pitcher Matchups — Thursday, June 4, 2026

Chris Sale (ATL) is the top strikeout start on the Thursday, June 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K, with Zack Wheeler (PHI) right behind. Every starter on the slate is ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his whiff rate, the lineup he's facing, how deep he goes, and his command. It's the same read DFS and strikeout-prop players make before lock.

Top strikeout spot: Chris Sale

Chris Sale (ATL) is the best strikeout matchup on the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. He's missing bats at a 29% clip — strikeouts per batter faced — and TOR has been around league average, going down 20% of the time. He's lined up for about 24 batters, so the volume's there for a big number.

The rest of the top of the board

Zack Wheeler (PHI) (83) — about 5.6 K vs SD: a 25% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Shota Imanaga (CHC) (77) — about 5.7 K vs ATH: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 23% of the time.
Jared Jones (PIT) (64) — about 5.3 K vs HOU: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
J.T. Ginn (ATH) (54) — about 4.9 K vs CHC: a 22% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 22% of the time.
Carlos Rodón (NYY) (52) — about 5.0 K vs CLE: a 24% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 21% of the time.

Whiffiest lineups to attack today

ATH is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Shota Imanaga is the arm to exploit it (77).
KC is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Andrew Morris is the arm to exploit it (0).
PHI is striking out 23% of the time in this spot — Lucas Giolito is the arm to exploit it (24).
BAL is striking out 22% of the time in this spot — Brayan Bello is the arm to exploit it (41).

How it played out

The top 10 starts averaged 4.9 strikeouts. Top play Chris Sale punched out 6. We grade every projection against the box score so you can see how the board held up.

How to read these strikeout matchups

Each starter's score (0–100) blends his strikeout rate against every hitter in the lineup — hand by hand, combined the log5 way — then scales by how deep he's been going (expected batters faced) and his command (K-BB%). Higher means more whiffs point his way. We project a strikeout count and grade every start against what actually happened.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Which pitcher has the best strikeout matchup today (Thursday, June 4, 2026)?: Chris Sale (ATL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 6.1 K against TOR. A 29% K/BF arm into a lineup that whiffs 20% of the time.
What are the best pitcher strikeout props today?: The top projected-K starts on Thursday, June 4, 2026: Chris Sale (~6.1 K), Zack Wheeler (~5.6 K), Shota Imanaga (~5.7 K), Jared Jones (~5.3 K), J.T. Ginn (~4.9 K). The full board ranks every starter.
How many strikeouts did the top matchup get on Thursday, June 4, 2026?: Chris Sale punched out 6.
How is the strikeout matchup score calculated?: It pairs each starter's strikeout rate (K/BF) with the strikeout rate of every hitter he faces, hand by hand, the log5 way — then scales by his expected batters faced (how deep he goes) and his command (K-BB%). Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected strikeout count alongside.
Is the strikeout board about pitchers or hitters?: Pitchers. Every card is a starting pitcher, ranked by how many strikeouts the matchup sets up — his stuff against the lineup he's facing. So a higher score is good for the pitcher (and his K prop), not the hitters.
What's the projected strikeout number?: A rough expected K total for the start, from how similar matchups have gone. It's a reference for comparing starters against each other, not a promise he throws exactly that many.
What does K/BF mean?: Strikeouts per batter faced — the share of hitters a pitcher strikes out. Around 22% is league average. Swing-and-miss starters run 30%+. We split it by batter handedness, which is what a daily matchup is asking.
What is K-BB%, and why does it matter?: Strikeout rate minus walk rate — a command-adjusted read on swing-and-miss skill, and one of the most stable, predictive pitcher numbers there is. A high-K-BB% arm misses bats without handing out free passes, which keeps the strikeout upside real.
Why does the opposing lineup matter so much?: A strikeout takes two. An elite arm gets fewer against a contact lineup, and a mid-rotation guy can pile them up against a whiff-prone one. The model reads each hitter's K rate vs the pitcher's hand, so the same starter grades very differently depending on who he draws.
What's the confidence meter?: How much data backs the read — sample size on the pitcher and the hitters he faces, plus whether the lineup's official. It's a measure of how solid the projection is, not a probability.
Can I use these for strikeout props or DFS?: Yes — that's the point. The board surfaces which starters have the best strikeout conditions and projects a count. Where there's a line, we show the over/under and which side our number leans. We don't post picks — we show the data and grade it. (Best-price odds and the Plays of the Day are a Pro feature.)
Are these confirmed or projected lineups?: Strikeout projections ride on the opposing lineup, so before a team posts officially (~2 hours before first pitch) we project it from their last game, then update once it's set. A pitcher facing a still-projected lineup is flagged so you know the number can still move.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes — the full board, every game page, and the daily archive, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.