MLB moneyline & run totals — Sunday, June 14, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
MIAMiami Marlins✓49%+104fair+135mktModel lean+8.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates51%-104fair-160mkt-8.1%
SDSan Diego Padres✓41%+146fair+118mkt-3.4%
BALBaltimore Orioles59%-146fair-139mktModel lean+3.4%
SEASeattle Mariners43%+130fair-135mkt-11.8%
WSHWashington Nationals✓57%-130fair+115mktModel lean+11.8%
NYYNew York Yankees✓55%-120fair-130mktModel lean+0.3%
TORToronto Blue Jays45%+120fair+110mkt-0.3%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓54%-118fair-110mktModel lean+3.7%
CINCincinnati Reds46%+118fair-106mkt-3.7%
DETDetroit Tigers51%-103fair-109mktModel lean+0.8%
CLECleveland Guardians49%+103fair-110mkt-0.8%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%-126fair+108mktModel lean+9.3%
NYMNew York Mets✓44%+126fair-125mkt-9.3%
HOUHouston Astros50%-101fair+100mktModel lean+2.5%
KCKansas City Royals✓50%+101fair-120mkt-2.5%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals48%+107fair-105mkt-0.6%
MINMinnesota Twins✓52%-107fair-114mktModel lean+0.6%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers43%+130fair-196mkt-20.2%
CWSChicago White Sox✓57%-130fair+165mktModel lean+20.2%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies40%+150fair-129mkt-14.0%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓60%-150fair+108mktModel lean+14.0%
COLColorado Rockies✓36%+178fair+165mkt-0.2%
ATHAthletics64%-178fair-199mktModel lean+0.2%
CHCChicago Cubs52%-107fair+115mktModel lean+7.0%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓48%+107fair-136mkt-7.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓37%+174fair-120mkt-15.6%
LAALos Angeles Angels63%-174fair+100mktModel lean+15.6%
TEXTexas Rangers✓44%+128fair-102mkt-4.7%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%-128fair-115mktModel lean+4.7%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.