MLB moneyline & run totals — Monday, June 15, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
MIAMiami Marlins55%-124fair+170mktModel lean+19.8%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓45%+124fair-205mkt-19.8%
KCKansas City Royals40%+149fair+111mkt-5.4%
WSHWashington Nationals✓60%-149fair-130mktModel lean+5.4%
NYMNew York Mets54%-115fair+119mktModel lean+9.6%
CINCincinnati Reds✓46%+115fair-140mkt-9.6%
SDSan Diego Padres50%-101fair+130mktModel lean+8.4%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓50%+101fair-155mkt-8.4%
MINMinnesota Twins✓42%+138fair+142mktModel lean+2.3%
TEXTexas Rangers58%-138fair-170mkt-2.3%
COLColorado Rockies37%+170fair+175mktModel lean+2.1%
CHCChicago Cubs✓63%-170fair-210mkt-2.1%
DETDetroit Tigers✓52%-107fair+107mktModel lean+5.2%
HOUHouston Astros48%+107fair-125mkt-5.2%
PITPittsburgh Pirates56%-125fair+102mktModel lean+8.0%
ATHAthletics✓44%+125fair-120mkt-8.0%
LAALos Angeles Angels47%+113fair+110mktModel lean+1.2%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓53%-113fair-130mkt-1.2%
TBTampa Bay Rays39%+158fair+144mkt-0.7%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓61%-158fair-170mktModel lean+0.7%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.