MLB moneyline & run totals — Tuesday, June 16, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
MIAMiami Marlins52%-107fair+148mktModel lean+13.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓48%+107fair-175mkt-13.0%
KCKansas City Royals39%+154fair+118mkt-4.7%
WSHWashington Nationals✓61%-154fair-139mktModel lean+4.7%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓50%-100fair-120mkt-2.3%
BOSBoston Red Sox50%+100fair+102mktModel lean+2.3%
CWSChicago White Sox47%+113fair+122mktModel lean+3.8%
NYYNew York Yankees✓53%-113fair-145mkt-3.8%
NYMNew York Mets49%+103fair-124mkt-4.0%
CINCincinnati Reds✓51%-103fair+105mktModel lean+4.0%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓44%+129fair+140mktModel lean+3.6%
ATLAtlanta Braves56%-129fair-166mkt-3.6%
CLECleveland Guardians38%+161fair+130mkt-3.5%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓62%-161fair-154mktModel lean+3.5%
SDSan Diego Padres45%+121fair-101mkt-3.2%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓55%-121fair-116mktModel lean+3.2%
COLColorado Rockies✓35%+185fair+162mkt-1.6%
CHCChicago Cubs65%-185fair-195mktModel lean+1.6%
MINMinnesota Twins✓44%+130fair+112mkt-2.0%
TEXTexas Rangers56%-130fair-130mktModel lean+2.0%
DETDetroit Tigers50%-101fair+141mktModel lean+10.4%
HOUHouston Astros✓50%+101fair-166mkt-10.4%
BALBaltimore Orioles55%-120fair+130mktModel lean+12.8%
SEASeattle Mariners✓45%+120fair-155mkt-12.8%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓56%-129fair+118mktModel lean+12.3%
ATHAthletics44%+129fair-140mkt-12.3%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓51%-103fair-107mktModel lean+1.0%
AZArizona Diamondbacks49%+103fair-110mkt-1.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays40%+153fair+129mkt-2.6%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓60%-153fair-150mktModel lean+2.6%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.