MLB moneyline & run totals — Wednesday, June 17, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
NYMNew York Mets✓48%+111fair-134mkt-7.4%
CINCincinnati Reds53%-111fair+113mktModel lean+7.4%
KCKansas City Royals✓44%+126fair+115mkt-0.4%
WSHWashington Nationals56%-126fair-135mktModel lean+0.4%
MIAMiami Marlins✓49%+102fair-102mktModel lean+0.8%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies51%-102fair-115mkt-0.8%
DETDetroit Tigers50%+101fair-110mkt-0.7%
HOUHouston Astros✓50%-101fair-106mktModel lean+0.7%
SDSan Diego Padres✓48%+109fair+110mktModel lean+2.1%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals52%-109fair-129mkt-2.1%
TBTampa Bay Rays45%+123fair+142mktModel lean+5.1%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓55%-123fair-168mkt-5.1%
LAALos Angeles Angels49%+104fair+145mktModel lean+9.8%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓51%-104fair-171mkt-9.8%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓44%+127fair+108mkt-2.3%
BOSBoston Red Sox56%-127fair-125mktModel lean+2.3%
CWSChicago White Sox49%+105fair+155mktModel lean+11.3%
NYYNew York Yankees✓51%-105fair-186mkt-11.3%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓34%+196fair+123mkt-9.2%
ATLAtlanta Braves66%-196fair-148mktModel lean+9.2%
CLECleveland Guardians38%+160fair+106mkt-8.3%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓62%-160fair-124mktModel lean+8.3%
COLColorado Rockies39%+160fair+160mktModel lean+1.5%
CHCChicago Cubs✓61%-160fair-190mkt-1.5%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓50%-100fair-122mkt-2.9%
ATHAthletics50%+100fair+105mktModel lean+2.9%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓48%+107fair+112mktModel lean+2.8%
SEASeattle Mariners52%-107fair-130mkt-2.8%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.