MLB moneyline & run totals — Thursday, June 18, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
TORToronto Blue Jays✓46%+116fair+109mkt-0.0%
BOSBoston Red Sox54%-116fair-125mktModel lean+0.0%
CLECleveland Guardians✓40%+148fair+129mkt-1.8%
MILMilwaukee Brewers60%-148fair-150mktModel lean+1.8%
MINMinnesota Twins✓46%+117fair-125mkt-7.2%
TEXTexas Rangers54%-117fair+106mktModel lean+7.2%
BALBaltimore Orioles49%+105fair+125mktModel lean+6.1%
SEASeattle Mariners✓51%-105fair-146mkt-6.1%
NYMNew York Mets✓41%+144fair+104mkt-6.2%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies59%-144fair-122mktModel lean+6.2%
CWSChicago White Sox✓41%+144fair+132mkt-0.5%
NYYNew York Yankees59%-144fair-155mktModel lean+0.5%
SFSan Francisco Giants38%+166fair+120mkt-6.2%
ATLAtlanta Braves62%-166fair-140mktModel lean+6.2%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals53%-114fair-104mktModel lean+4.4%
KCKansas City Royals✓47%+114fair-115mkt-4.4%
LAALos Angeles Angels58%-139fair+116mktModel lean+13.7%
ATHAthletics✓42%+139fair-137mkt-13.7%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.