MLB moneyline & run totals — Friday, June 19, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
TORToronto Blue Jays39%+154fair+106mkt-7.3%
CHCChicago Cubs✓61%-154fair-125mktModel lean+7.3%
CWSChicago White Sox44%+127fair+161mktModel lean+7.9%
DETDetroit Tigers✓56%-127fair-213mkt-7.9%
CINCincinnati Reds29%+246fair+158mkt-8.3%
NYYNew York Yankees✓71%-246fair-190mktModel lean+8.3%
WSHWashington Nationals45%+121fair+199mktModel lean+13.8%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓55%-121fair-265mkt-13.8%
SFSan Francisco Giants44%+125fair+118mktModel lean+0.5%
MIAMiami Marlins✓56%-125fair-140mkt-0.5%
MILMilwaukee Brewers68%-213fair+110mktModel lean+22.3%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓32%+213fair-130mkt-22.3%
SDSan Diego Padres42%+140fair+118mkt-2.3%
TEXTexas Rangers✓58%-140fair-140mktModel lean+2.3%
CLECleveland Guardians57%-134fair+119mktModel lean+13.3%
HOUHouston Astros✓43%+134fair-140mkt-13.3%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals55%-121fair+1000mktModel lean+46.1%
KCKansas City Royals✓45%+121fair-2500mkt-46.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates68%-216fair-200mktModel lean+4.0%
COLColorado Rockies✓32%+216fair+170mkt-4.0%
LAALos Angeles Angels67%-202fair+122mktModel lean+24.5%
ATHAthletics✓33%+202fair-159mkt-24.5%
MINMinnesota Twins34%+198fair+110mkt-12.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓66%-198fair-130mktModel lean+12.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles36%+175fair+201mktModel lean+4.5%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓64%-175fair-247mkt-4.5%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓39%+159fair+105mkt-8.2%
SEASeattle Mariners61%-159fair-125mktModel lean+8.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.