MLB moneyline & run totals — Saturday, June 20, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
CWSChicago White Sox53%-112fair+100mktModel lean+4.7%
DETDetroit Tigers✓47%+112fair-118mkt-4.7%
CINCincinnati Reds✓41%+146fair+105mkt-6.1%
NYYNew York Yankees59%-146fair-125mktModel lean+6.1%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓51%-102fair-125mkt-2.7%
CHCChicago Cubs49%+102fair+105mktModel lean+2.7%
SDSan Diego Padres✓51%-102fair-103mktModel lean+2.7%
TEXTexas Rangers49%+102fair-124mkt-2.7%
MILMilwaukee Brewers34%+197fair+118mkt-10.4%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓66%-197fair-139mktModel lean+10.4%
WSHWashington Nationals✓48%+110fair+115mktModel lean+2.9%
TBTampa Bay Rays52%-110fair-134mkt-2.9%
SFSan Francisco Giants40%+150fair-141mkt-16.3%
MIAMiami Marlins✓60%-150fair+120mktModel lean+16.3%
CLECleveland Guardians✓41%+145fair+115mkt-3.9%
HOUHouston Astros59%-145fair-135mktModel lean+3.9%
NYMNew York Mets36%+180fair+162mkt-1.1%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓64%-180fair-190mktModel lean+1.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates69%-222fair-145mktModel lean+12.0%
COLColorado Rockies✓31%+222fair+123mkt-12.0%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓60%-152fair+109mktModel lean+14.0%
ATHAthletics40%+152fair-125mkt-14.0%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓48%+110fair+119mktModel lean+3.8%
SEASeattle Mariners52%-110fair-141mkt-3.8%
MINMinnesota Twins✓49%+106fair+101mktModel lean+0.9%
AZArizona Diamondbacks51%-106fair-120mkt-0.9%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓28%+263fair+176mkt-7.2%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers72%-263fair-214mktModel lean+7.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.