MLB moneyline & run totals — Sunday, June 21, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
CINCincinnati Reds✓52%-109fair-575mkt-27.9%
NYYNew York Yankees48%+109fair+372mktModel lean+27.9%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓41%+145fair-10000mkt-56.3%
ATLAtlanta Braves59%-145fair+3300mktModel lean+56.3%
WSHWashington Nationals50%+101fair+725mktModel lean+38.3%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓50%-101fair-1550mkt-38.3%
CWSChicago White Sox48%+109fair-254mkt-12.9%
DETDetroit Tigers✓52%-109fair+115mktModel lean+12.9%
SFSan Francisco Giants60%-150fair+410mktModel lean+41.5%
MIAMiami Marlins✓40%+150fair-637mkt-41.5%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓47%+114fair-2200mkt-43.7%
KCKansas City Royals53%-114fair+885mktModel lean+43.7%
CLECleveland Guardians49%+102fair+355mktModel lean+28.9%
HOUHouston Astros✓51%-102fair-550mkt-28.9%
TORToronto Blue Jays56%-130fair-112mktModel lean+5.7%
CHCChicago Cubs44%+130fair-105mkt-5.7%
SDSan Diego Padres56%-127fair+230mktModel lean+27.3%
TEXTexas Rangers✓44%+127fair-312mkt-27.3%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓54%-119fair-1600mkt-34.3%
COLColorado Rockies46%+119fair+725mktModel lean+34.3%
MINMinnesota Twins✓46%+116fair-12500mkt-50.7%
AZArizona Diamondbacks54%-116fair+3150mktModel lean+50.7%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓67%-202fair+382mktModel lean+47.4%
ATHAthletics33%+202fair-600mkt-47.4%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓52%-110fair-1430mkt-35.8%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers48%+110fair+700mktModel lean+35.8%
BOSBoston Red Sox45%+121fair+885mktModel lean+35.6%
SEASeattle Mariners✓55%-121fair-2100mkt-35.6%
NYMNew York Mets24%+312fair+395mktModel lean+5.2%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓76%-312fair-612mkt-5.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.