MLB moneyline & run totals — Monday, June 22, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (50%, n=155), but it's beating the book on team totals — 53% at -3% ROI over 336 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
NYYNew York Yankees58%-137fair-115mktModel lean+6.7%
DETDetroit Tigers✓42%+137fair-105mkt-6.7%
KCKansas City Royals✓29%+241fair+162mkt-7.3%
TBTampa Bay Rays71%-241fair-194mktModel lean+7.3%
TEXTexas Rangers✓40%+153fair+115mkt-5.2%
MIAMiami Marlins60%-153fair-134mktModel lean+5.2%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies40%+152fair-170mkt-20.6%
WSHWashington Nationals✓60%-152fair+141mktModel lean+20.6%
HOUHouston Astros52%-109fair+116mktModel lean+7.7%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓48%+109fair-139mkt-7.7%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓53%-113fair-120mktModel lean+0.9%
CINCincinnati Reds47%+113fair+100mkt-0.9%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓67%-207fair-136mktModel lean+12.1%
MINMinnesota Twins33%+207fair+115mkt-12.1%
CLECleveland Guardians40%+147fair-115mkt-10.7%
CWSChicago White Sox✓60%-147fair-105mktModel lean+10.7%
AZArizona Diamondbacks39%+158fair-105mkt-10.5%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓61%-158fair-112mktModel lean+10.5%
BOSBoston Red Sox58%-138fair-165mkt-1.9%
COLColorado Rockies✓42%+138fair+140mktModel lean+1.9%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓53%-111fair-155mkt-5.7%
LAALos Angeles Angels47%+111fair+131mktModel lean+5.7%
ATLAtlanta Braves55%-123fair-105mktModel lean+6.1%
SDSan Diego Padres✓45%+123fair-114mkt-6.1%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.