MLB moneyline & run totals — Tuesday, June 23, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
HOUHouston Astros✓54%-117fair+130mktModel lean+12.1%
TORToronto Blue Jays46%+117fair-154mkt-12.1%
SEASeattle Mariners✓45%+123fair-102mkt-3.8%
PITPittsburgh Pirates55%-123fair-115mktModel lean+3.8%
KCKansas City Royals✓31%+220fair+125mkt-11.6%
TBTampa Bay Rays69%-220fair-145mktModel lean+11.6%
TEXTexas Rangers43%+131fair-126mkt-10.3%
MIAMiami Marlins✓57%-131fair+107mktModel lean+10.3%
NYYNew York Yankees✓53%-111fair+120mktModel lean+9.0%
DETDetroit Tigers47%+111fair-143mkt-9.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓43%+134fair-130mkt-11.5%
WSHWashington Nationals57%-134fair+110mktModel lean+11.5%
CHCChicago Cubs✓62%-161fair-113mktModel lean+10.8%
NYMNew York Mets38%+161fair-105mkt-10.8%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓52%-108fair-143mkt-4.5%
CINCincinnati Reds48%+108fair+120mktModel lean+4.5%
CLECleveland Guardians48%+110fair-123mkt-5.3%
CWSChicago White Sox✓52%-110fair+105mktModel lean+5.3%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓46%+118fair-169mkt-14.4%
MINMinnesota Twins54%-118fair+141mktModel lean+14.4%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓63%-170fair+101mktModel lean+15.3%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals37%+170fair-120mkt-15.3%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓50%+101fair-170mkt-11.0%
COLColorado Rockies50%-101fair+146mktModel lean+11.0%
BALBaltimore Orioles67%-202fair+104mktModel lean+19.6%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓33%+202fair-121mkt-19.6%
ATLAtlanta Braves50%-102fair-130mkt-3.8%
SDSan Diego Padres✓50%+102fair+110mktModel lean+3.8%
ATHAthletics49%+104fair-130mkt-5.4%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓51%-104fair+110mktModel lean+5.4%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.