MLB moneyline & run totals — Wednesday, June 24, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
TEXTexas Rangers48%+108fair-122mkt-5.0%
MIAMiami Marlins✓52%-108fair+105mktModel lean+5.0%
CHCChicago Cubs✓53%-111fair-100mktModel lean+4.3%
NYMNew York Mets47%+111fair-115mkt-4.3%
CLECleveland Guardians✓41%+142fair-112mkt-9.4%
CWSChicago White Sox59%-142fair-105mktModel lean+9.4%
BOSBoston Red Sox65%-188fair-171mktModel lean+4.5%
COLColorado Rockies✓35%+188fair+145mkt-4.5%
BALBaltimore Orioles35%+186fair-102mkt-13.6%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓65%-186fair-115mktModel lean+13.6%
SEASeattle Mariners32%+210fair-135mkt-23.2%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓68%-210fair+117mktModel lean+23.2%
KCKansas City Royals36%+177fair+118mkt-8.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓64%-177fair-139mktModel lean+8.0%
NYYNew York Yankees✓47%+114fair+110mktModel lean+1.0%
DETDetroit Tigers53%-114fair-130mkt-1.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓39%+158fair-180mkt-23.2%
WSHWashington Nationals61%-158fair+153mktModel lean+23.2%
HOUHouston Astros✓45%+122fair+118mktModel lean+1.1%
TORToronto Blue Jays55%-122fair-140mkt-1.1%CHCChicago Cubs✓58%-136fair-105mktModel lean+8.8%NYMNew York Mets42%+136fair-115mkt-8.8%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓51%-105fair-130mkt-3.2%
CINCincinnati Reds49%+105fair+112mktModel lean+3.2%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓44%+126fair-161mkt-15.0%
MINMinnesota Twins56%-126fair+135mktModel lean+15.0%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓59%-144fair+115mktModel lean+14.3%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals41%+144fair-135mkt-14.3%
ATLAtlanta Braves69%-218fair-118mktModel lean+16.5%
SDSan Diego Padres✓31%+218fair-100mkt-16.5%
ATHAthletics60%-147fair+115mktModel lean+14.8%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓40%+147fair-135mkt-14.8%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.