MLB moneyline & run totals — Thursday, June 25, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=236) and game total (53%, n=178), but it's beating the book on team totals — 58% at +6% ROI over 285 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
KCKansas City Royals46%+117fair+123mktModel lean+2.9%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓54%-117fair-145mkt-2.9%
SEASeattle Mariners52%-110fair-145mkt-4.7%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓48%+110fair+125mktModel lean+4.7%
ATHAthletics✓34%+190fair+113mkt-10.6%
SFSan Francisco Giants66%-190fair-134mktModel lean+10.6%
HOUHouston Astros✓35%+188fair+102mkt-12.9%
DETDetroit Tigers65%-188fair-120mktModel lean+12.9%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓54%-119fair-179mkt-7.4%
WSHWashington Nationals46%+119fair+150mktModel lean+7.4%
TEXTexas Rangers✓51%-102fair-115mkt-0.6%
TORToronto Blue Jays49%+102fair-105mktModel lean+0.6%
CHCChicago Cubs✓59%-143fair-110mktModel lean+8.6%
NYMNew York Mets41%+143fair-107mkt-8.6%
NYYNew York Yankees68%-211fair-115mktModel lean+16.1%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓32%+211fair-100mkt-16.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks41%+143fair+115mkt-3.8%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals59%-143fair-132mktModel lean+3.8%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.