MLB moneyline & run totals — Sunday, June 28, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (51%, n=251) and game total (52%, n=188), but it's beating the book on team totals — 56% at +3% ROI over 312 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
WSHWashington Nationals✓34%+196fair+166mkt-2.3%
BALBaltimore Orioles66%-196fair-198mktModel lean+2.3%
CINCincinnati Reds49%+106fair+115mktModel lean+3.9%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓51%-106fair-135mkt-3.9%
TEXTexas Rangers✓48%+110fair+110mktModel lean+1.8%
TORToronto Blue Jays52%-110fair-130mkt-1.8%
HOUHouston Astros✓65%-183fair-120mktModel lean+12.4%
DETDetroit Tigers35%+183fair+101mkt-12.4%
SEASeattle Mariners43%+130fair-102mkt-5.1%
CLECleveland Guardians✓57%-130fair-115mktModel lean+5.1%
AZArizona Diamondbacks27%+268fair+165mkt-9.0%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓73%-268fair-198mktModel lean+9.0%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓57%-132fair-157mkt-2.1%
NYMNew York Mets43%+132fair+135mktModel lean+2.1%
KCKansas City Royals✓42%+140fair+115mkt-2.9%
CWSChicago White Sox58%-140fair-136mktModel lean+2.9%
COLColorado Rockies52%-107fair+141mktModel lean+11.8%
MINMinnesota Twins✓48%+107fair-167mkt-11.8%
CHCChicago Cubs✓36%+175fair+138mkt-4.0%
MILMilwaukee Brewers64%-175fair-165mktModel lean+4.0%
MIAMiami Marlins51%-104fair+104mktModel lean+3.8%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓49%+104fair-122mkt-3.8%
ATHAthletics48%+110fair-109mkt-2.4%
LAALos Angeles Angels✓52%-110fair-110mktModel lean+2.4%
ATLAtlanta Braves61%-154fair-180mkt-1.3%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓39%+154fair+154mktModel lean+1.3%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓45%+120fair-136mkt-10.0%
SDSan Diego Padres55%-120fair+116mktModel lean+10.0%
NYYNew York Yankees52%-106fair-107mktModel lean+1.9%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓48%+106fair-110mkt-1.9%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.