MLB moneyline & run totals — Tuesday, June 30, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=279) and game total (51%, n=212), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 57% at +3% ROI over 80 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
CWSChicago White Sox✓56%-128fair+125mktModel lean+13.4%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%+128fair-146mkt-13.4%
TEXTexas Rangers✓42%+137fair-106mkt-7.4%
CLECleveland Guardians58%-137fair-110mktModel lean+7.4%
PITPittsburgh Pirates44%+128fair+115mkt-0.9%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓56%-128fair-135mktModel lean+0.9%
DETDetroit Tigers✓25%+306fair+123mkt-18.5%
NYYNew York Yankees75%-306fair-145mktModel lean+18.5%
NYMNew York Mets✓53%-112fair-111mktModel lean+2.2%
TORToronto Blue Jays47%+112fair-105mkt-2.2%
WSHWashington Nationals✓48%+108fair+129mktModel lean+6.1%
BOSBoston Red Sox52%-108fair-152mkt-6.1%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals✓23%+326fair+111mkt-22.3%
ATLAtlanta Braves77%-326fair-128mktModel lean+22.3%
CINCincinnati Reds45%+120fair+135mktModel lean+4.5%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓55%-120fair-159mkt-4.5%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓63%-173fair-138mktModel lean+7.4%
KCKansas City Royals37%+173fair+119mkt-7.4%
SDSan Diego Padres44%+130fair+109mkt-2.5%
CHCChicago Cubs✓56%-130fair-128mktModel lean+2.5%
MINMinnesota Twins53%-114fair+105mktModel lean+6.3%
HOUHouston Astros✓47%+114fair-123mkt-6.3%
MIAMiami Marlins✓59%-144fair-157mktModel lean+0.1%
COLColorado Rockies41%+144fair+135mkt-0.1%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓76%-322fair-175mktModel lean+15.2%
ATHAthletics24%+322fair+147mkt-15.2%
SFSan Francisco Giants50%+101fair-100mktModel lean+1.7%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓50%-101fair-118mkt-1.7%
LAALos Angeles Angels45%+120fair+158mktModel lean+8.2%
SEASeattle Mariners✓55%-120fair-190mkt-8.2%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.