MLB moneyline & run totals — Wednesday, July 1, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (53%, n=292) and game total (51%, n=222), but it's beating the book on its strongest team-total leans — 58% at +3% ROI over 85 graded plays (the ones we surface). Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
CWSChicago White Sox41%+142fair+130mkt-0.6%
BALBaltimore Orioles✓59%-142fair-152mktModel lean+0.6%
TEXTexas Rangers44%+130fair+105mkt-3.4%
CLECleveland Guardians✓56%-130fair-123mktModel lean+3.4%
WSHWashington Nationals✓47%+115fair+125mktModel lean+3.9%
BOSBoston Red Sox53%-115fair-148mkt-3.9%
DETDetroit Tigers✓51%-103fair+120mktModel lean+6.9%
NYYNew York Yankees49%+103fair-140mkt-6.9%
SDSan Diego Padres44%+125fair+106mkt-2.4%
CHCChicago Cubs✓56%-125fair-123mktModel lean+2.4%
NYMNew York Mets37%+170fair-105mkt-12.1%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓63%-170fair-113mktModel lean+12.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates43%+133fair+110mkt-2.9%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies✓57%-133fair-129mktModel lean+2.9%
STLSt. Louis Cardinals34%+198fair-107mkt-16.1%
ATLAtlanta Braves✓67%-198fair-111mktModel lean+16.1%
TBTampa Bay Rays✓66%-191fair-148mktModel lean+8.4%
KCKansas City Royals34%+191fair+125mkt-8.4%
MINMinnesota Twins✓49%+102fair+132mktModel lean+8.0%
HOUHouston Astros51%-102fair-155mkt-8.0%
CINCincinnati Reds44%+125fair+162mktModel lean+7.6%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓56%-125fair-190mkt-7.6%
MIAMiami Marlins69%-225fair-126mktModel lean+15.8%
COLColorado Rockies✓31%+225fair+106mkt-15.8%
SFSan Francisco Giants✓59%-146fair+112mktModel lean+14.0%
AZArizona Diamondbacks41%+146fair-132mkt-14.0%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.