MLB moneyline & run totals — Monday, June 29, 2026
A win probability, a projected game total, and each club's projected runs for every matchup — all set beside the market and graded in the open. It grades out near break-even on the moneyline (52%, n=264) and game total (52%, n=198), but it's beating the book on team totals — 55% at +1% ROI over 338 graded bets. Moneylines and game totals are efficient, so we treat those as transparency. Team totals are a softer market, and that's where the model is finding a real edge — as that sample holds, team-total leans are the first thing we'll surface as plays. Until then, all the numbers are here for you to use as you see fit.
CWSChicago White Sox✓56%-128fair+123mktModel lean+13.1%
BALBaltimore Orioles44%+128fair-145mkt-13.1%
PITPittsburgh Pirates✓65%-187fair+185mktModel lean+31.4%
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies35%+187fair-220mkt-31.4%
DETDetroit Tigers✓37%+168fair+120mkt-6.2%
NYYNew York Yankees63%-168fair-143mktModel lean+6.2%
NYMNew York Mets39%+159fair+105mkt-8.4%
TORToronto Blue Jays✓61%-159fair-123mktModel lean+8.4%
WSHWashington Nationals40%+151fair+119mkt-4.1%
BOSBoston Red Sox✓60%-151fair-140mktModel lean+4.1%
TEXTexas Rangers✓41%+147fair-115mkt-11.1%
CLECleveland Guardians59%-147fair-100mktModel lean+11.1%
CINCincinnati Reds35%+188fair+150mkt-3.8%
MILMilwaukee Brewers✓65%-188fair-178mktModel lean+3.8%
SDSan Diego Padres37%+167fair+130mkt-4.3%
CHCChicago Cubs✓63%-167fair-155mktModel lean+4.3%
MINMinnesota Twins✓39%+156fair-118mkt-12.9%
HOUHouston Astros61%-156fair-100mktModel lean+12.9%
MIAMiami Marlins✓49%+103fair-145mkt-7.4%
COLColorado Rockies51%-103fair+122mktModel lean+7.4%
SFSan Francisco Giants37%+174fair+116mkt-8.0%
AZArizona Diamondbacks✓63%-174fair-136mktModel lean+8.0%
LADLos Angeles Dodgers✓45%+123fair-149mkt-13.0%
ATHAthletics55%-123fair+130mktModel lean+13.0%
LAALos Angeles Angels35%+188fair+145mkt-4.6%
SEASeattle Mariners✓65%-188fair-172mktModel lean+4.6%Win% / Fair = our model's win probability (and that as fair, no-vig odds). Mkt = consensus market line. Edge = our number minus the market's. The gold side is the one we favor more than the market — informational, not a play. Not betting advice.
We grade all three markets against the book, in the open — this is the whole point of shipping the model. The moneyline and game total are efficient and grade out near break-even; the team totals are softer, and that's where the model is actually beating the market.
On the moneyline and game total, a ~50% win rate and ~0% ROI is the honest, expected result — those markets are efficient, priced off the same run estimates we model. The team totals are a thinner, softer market, and the model is clearing the vig there on an early sample. We're posting it all transparently; as the team-total sample grows and holds, those become the first edges we surface as plays.