Earned Runs Board · Today
Best MLB earned runs matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
‹ Prev Saturday, July 4, 2026 Next › All Games 30 11 AM ET 2 1 PM ET 2 4 PM ET 4 7 PM ET 6 8 PM ET 8 9 PM ET 6 10 PM ET 2 Lineups final Remaining Upcoming only
PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 30 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Brandon Woodruff⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.7%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 12.3% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 12.7% 2.8
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 12.1% 2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 8.4% 2.0
6. Adrian Del Castillo (L) 9.9% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 11.5% 2.0
8. Pavin Smith (L) 9.4% 2.0
9. Tommy Troy (R) 12.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Woodruff's full player page → 2
Chris Sale⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 6.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.7%
vs RHB 6.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 20.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 9.7% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 11.9% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 11.8% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R) 12.0% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 13.6% 3.0
6. Jared Young (L) 9.8% 3.0
7. Francisco Alvarez (R) 9.9% 2.8
8. Brett Baty (L) 13.3% 2.0
9. Luis Torrens (R) 10.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Chris Sale's full player page → 3
Hunter Greene⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 6.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.7%
vs RHB 6.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 0
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.4% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 11.5% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 12.0% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 13.9% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 11.0% 3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 12.7% 2.0
8. Blaze Alexander (R) 12.3% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Greene's full player page → 4
Drew Rasmussen⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 7.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jose Altuve (R) 12.7% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 15.1% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 10.8% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 10.8% 3.0
5. Cam Smith (R) 11.4% 3.0
6. Taylor Trammell (L) 12.6% 2.2
7. Yainer Diaz (R) 9.4% 2.0
8. Jake Meyers (R) 10.8% 2.0
9. Nick Allen (R) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Drew Rasmussen's full player page → 5
Hunter Brown⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.2%
vs RHB 8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.9 BF Expected batters faced 21.9
From recent starts 5
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 12.8% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 13.2% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 14.2% 3.0
4. Cedric Mullins (L) 12.9% 2.9
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 12.2% 2.0
6. Victor Mesa Jr. (L) 12.5% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 12.1% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (L) 14.6% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 9.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hunter Brown's full player page → 6
Sonny Gray⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.6%
vs RHB 8.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.3 BF Expected batters faced 24.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 14.7% 3.0
2. Nolan Schanuel (L) 10.1% 3.0
3. Denzer Guzman (R) 9.3% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 11.3% 3.0
5. Wade Meckler (L) 12.8% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 10.4% 3.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R) 9.0% 2.3
8. Josh Lowe (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sonny Gray's full player page → 7
Sean Manaea⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.6%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.7 BF Expected batters faced 19.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.1% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R) 10.6% 2.7
3. Matt Olson (L) 11.7% 2.0
4. Mauricio Dubón (R) 10.4% 2.0
5. Michael Harris II (L) 10.7% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 10.6% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 10.4% 2.0
8. Mike Yastrzemski (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Jorge Mateo (R) 14.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Manaea's full player page → 8
Sean Burke⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 14.4% 3.0
2. David Fry (R) 11.9% 3.0
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.6% 3.0
4. Rhys Hoskins (R) 9.8% 3.0
5. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.6% 3.0
6. Brayan Rocchio (L) 11.1% 2.1
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 10.2% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 11.5% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Burke's full player page → 9
Robbie Ray⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 8.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 8.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.6% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 12.1% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 14.2% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 10.3% 3.0
5. Cole Carrigg (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Tyler Freeman (R) 11.9% 2.8
7. Edouard Julien (L) 15.1% 2.0
8. Kyle Karros (R) 13.2% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Robbie Ray's full player page → 10
Jack Flaherty⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.1%
vs RHB 11.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.2 BF Expected batters faced 21.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 11.3% 3.0
2. Josh Jung (R) 11.0% 3.0
3. Ezequiel Duran (R) 11.5% 3.0
4. Jake Burger (R) 11.1% 2.2
5. Kyle Higashioka (R) 11.2% 2.0
6. Cam Cauley (R) 11.7% 2.0
7. Elias Díaz (R) 10.8% 2.0
8. Alejandro Osuna (L) 9.9% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 11.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jack Flaherty's full player page → 11
Brandon Young⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.0%
vs RHB 8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.8%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 13.9% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 12.7% 3.0
3. Spencer Steer (R) 13.3% 3.0
4. Eugenio Suárez (R) 10.0% 3.0
5. Noelvi Marte (R) 11.6% 3.0
6. JJ Bleday (L) 11.8% 3.0
7. Tyler Stephenson (R) 10.3% 2.1
8. Matt McLain (R) 10.3% 2.0
9. Edwin Arroyo (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Young's full player page → 12
Parker Messick⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 12.8% 3.0
2. Miguel Vargas (R) 13.0% 3.0
3. Kyle Teel (L) 11.8% 3.0
4. Andrew Benintendi (L) 12.6% 3.0
5. Colson Montgomery (L) 10.6% 3.0
6. Braden Montgomery (R) 11.7% 3.0
7. Chase Meidroth (R) 13.0% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 11.6% 2.0
9. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Parker Messick's full player page → 13
Sam Aldegheri⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.8%
vs RHB 11.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.4 BF Expected batters faced 18.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 11.1% 2.4
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 12.9% 2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 13.7% 2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 13.4% 2.0
5. Romy Gonzalez (R) 11.7% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 10.4% 2.0
7. Nate Eaton (R) 10.7% 2.0
8. Andruw Monasterio (R) 15.0% 2.0
9. Connor Wong (R) 13.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sam Aldegheri's full player page → 14
Logan Gilbert⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.7 BF Expected batters faced 23.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Nathan Lukes (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 12.5% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 13.5% 3.0
4. Daulton Varsho (L) 11.8% 3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R) 9.3% 3.0
6. Yohendrick Piñango (L) 11.7% 2.7
7. Ernie Clement (R) 10.5% 2.0
8. Sean Keys (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Andrés Giménez (L) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Gilbert's full player page → 15
Yoshinobu Yamamoto⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.7 BF Expected batters faced 24.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 13.2% 3.0
2. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.8% 3.0
3. Manny Machado (R) 12.8% 3.0
4. Gavin Sheets (L) 12.9% 3.0
5. Ty France (R) 12.3% 3.0
6. Jackson Merrill (L) 11.8% 3.0
7. Xander Bogaerts (R) 12.5% 2.7
8. Freddy Fermin (R) 10.0% 2.0
9. Samad Taylor (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto's full player page → 16
Kumar Rocker⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.6% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 14.1% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 13.7% 3.0
3. Kerry Carpenter (L) 11.5% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 14.1% 3.0
5. Colt Keith (L) 12.3% 2.5
6. Spencer Torkelson (R) 10.7% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 10.4% 2.0
8. James Outman (L) 10.2% 2.0
9. Hao-Yu Lee (R) 9.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kumar Rocker's full player page → 17
Shane Bieber⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.8%
vs RHB 13.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 10.9% 3.0
2. Julio Rodríguez (R) 12.0% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 12.5% 3.0
4. Randy Arozarena (R) 13.4% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 11.0% 2.4
6. Cal Raleigh (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Luke Raley (L) 11.1% 2.0
8. Cole Young (L) 12.7% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Bieber's full player page → 18
Kyle Leahy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 15.7% 3.0
2. Alex Bregman (R) 11.5% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 11.1% 3.0
4. Seiya Suzuki (R) 13.7% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 16.1% 2.5
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 11.1% 2.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 12.9% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 14.1% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 16.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Kyle Leahy's full player page → 19
Brendan Beck⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 14.8% 3.0
2. Brooks Lee (L) 14.7% 3.0
3. Kody Clemens (L) 13.4% 2.5
4. Josh Bell (L) 13.8% 2.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 10.8% 2.0
6. Victor Caratini (L) 12.1% 2.0
7. Ryan Kreidler (R) 14.1% 2.0
8. Tristan Gray (L) 9.8% 2.0
9. Luke Keaschall (R) 15.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brendan Beck's full player page → 20
Shota Imanaga⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.6%
vs RHB 10.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 9.5% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 12.5% 3.0
3. Jordan Walker (R) 12.7% 3.0
4. Nelson Velázquez (R) 11.4% 3.0
5. Alec Burleson (L) 9.9% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 12.7% 2.1
7. José Fermín (R) 12.3% 2.0
8. Blaze Jordan (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Nathan Church (L) 12.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shota Imanaga's full player page → 21
Jesús Luzardo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.5 BF Expected batters faced 24.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 11.7% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Starling Marte (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Nick Loftin (R) 11.7% 3.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 11.7% 2.5
8. Isaac Collins (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Kameron Misner (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jesús Luzardo's full player page → 22
Zack Littell⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.3%
vs RHB 12.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Konnor Griffin (R) 13.5% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 13.9% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 14.1% 2.8
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 11.7% 2.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 13.3% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.0% 2.0
7. Jake Mangum (L) 11.9% 2.0
8. Endy Rodríguez (L) 14.0% 2.0
9. Jared Triolo (R) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zack Littell's full player page → 23
Michael Wacha⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.7 BF Expected batters faced 25.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 11.7% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 11.7% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 11.7% 3.0
5. Alec Bohm (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 11.7% 3.0
7. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 11.7% 3.0
8. Justin Crawford (L) 11.7% 2.7
9. Rafael Marchán (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Michael Wacha's full player page → 24
Braxton Ashcraft⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.2 BF Expected batters faced 24.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 16.1% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 16.1% 3.0
3. José Tena (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 14.4% 3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 11.2% 3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L) 12.5% 3.0
7. Keibert Ruiz (L) 13.2% 2.2
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 11.8% 2.0
9. Nasim Nuñez (L) 10.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Braxton Ashcraft's full player page → 25
Zebby Matthews⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.6%
vs RHB 10.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 14.7% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 14.4% 3.0
3. Jasson Domínguez (L) 9.5% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 11.3% 3.0
5. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 10.3% 3.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 15.2% 3.0
7. Ryan McMahon (L) 11.2% 2.8
8. José Caballero (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 10.5% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zebby Matthews's full player page → 26
Sandy Alcantara⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.3%
vs RHB 12.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.6%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.2 BF Expected batters faced 26.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shea Langeliers (R) 11.6% 3.0
2. Nick Kurtz (L) 14.3% 3.0
3. Colby Thomas (R) 11.0% 3.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 11.5% 3.0
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 11.7% 3.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 13.7% 3.0
7. Henry Bolte (R) 8.3% 3.0
8. Jeff McNeil (L) 9.7% 3.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 14.4% 2.2
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → 27
Tomoyuki Sugano⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.7%
vs RHB 10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 12.0% 3.0
2. Casey Schmitt (R) 11.1% 3.0
3. Heliot Ramos (R) 12.6% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 14.3% 3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 14.8% 3.0
6. Willy Adames (R) 11.8% 2.1
7. Bryce Eldridge (L) 11.5% 2.0
8. Victor Bericoto (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page → 28
Aaron Civale⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.3%
vs RHB 9.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.7%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 13.4% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 14.5% 3.0
3. Kyle Stowers (L) 12.3% 3.0
4. Xavier Edwards (L) 12.2% 3.0
5. Griffin Conine (L) 12.3% 2.1
6. Owen Caissie (L) 14.0% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 10.1% 2.0
8. Javier Sanoja (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Joe Mack (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Aaron Civale's full player page → 29
Griffin Canning⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 15.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 17.3%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 16.7% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 13.2% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 14.0% 2.5
4. Mookie Betts (R) 14.9% 2.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 13.8% 2.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 14.7% 2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 13.0% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 12.7% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L) 9.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Canning's full player page → 30
Merrill Kelly⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.6%
vs RHB 11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 25.1 BF Expected batters faced 25.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.5% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 13.2% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.2% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 12.9% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 16.4% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 14.4% 3.0
7. Sal Frelick (L) 11.9% 3.0
8. Cooper Pratt (R) 11.7% 2.1
9. David Hamilton (L) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 4, 2026 Brandon Woodruff (MIL) is the top earned runs spot on the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER, with Chris Sale (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Brandon Woodruff Brandon Woodruff (MIL) tops the Saturday, July 4, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER vs AZ. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Chris Sale (ATL) (96) — about 1.8 ER vs NYM. Hunter Greene (CIN) (96) — about 1.8 ER vs BAL. Drew Rasmussen (TB) (95) — about 1.9 ER vs HOU. Hunter Brown (HOU) (85) — about 2.1 ER vs TB. Sonny Gray (BOS) (84) — about 2.1 ER vs LAA. How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Saturday, July 4, 2026)? Brandon Woodruff (MIL) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.7 ER against AZ.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Saturday, July 4, 2026: Brandon Woodruff (~1.7 ER), Chris Sale (~1.8 ER), Hunter Greene (~1.8 ER), Drew Rasmussen (~1.9 ER), Hunter Brown (~2.1 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
