Last scored matchup
Paul isn't on today's slate. He was last scored 10 days ago, away at Detroit Tigers on Sunday, September 27, 2026. This page refreshes with new projections as soon as he's back in a lineup.
Season line
32 starts, 10-11, 3.82 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 174.1 innings. He's struck out 200 over that span, against 49 walks. This is the baseline the matchup adjusts from — the model starts here and then asks what the specific lineup he's facing does to strikeout arms, how the park plays, and how deep he's likely to go.
He throws right-handed
Paul throws right-handed, which is the ordinary case and means fewer wild swings in the lineup he faces. Opposing managers aren't restacking against him the way they would a left-hander, so his projection moves more on the quality of the lineup than on its handedness. What does move it: how deep he's been going lately, and whether the lineup in front of him strikes out.
His last 5 starts
Paul has 25 strikeouts in 29.3 innings across his last 5 starts, a 7.7 K/9, with a 3.99 ERA over that stretch and 8 walks. Strikeouts are the one pitcher market where our model has found real, graded room — projected workload and the specific lineup he draws move that number more than a season-long rate does. Start-by-start detail is in the log below.
Strikeouts and control
Paul has 200 strikeouts and 49 walks in 174.3 innings this season — 10.3 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9, a 4.1-to-1 ratio. That's around league-typical control — enough to work deep when the lineup cooperates, not enough to bail him out of a bad matchup.
What his floor looks like
Paul has made 32 starts this season, averaging 5.4 innings with a 3.82 ERA across them. In the 12 starts we hold detailed lines for, he got through five or more innings 9 times. That ratio is the honest read on his floor, and it's what separates an arm worth projecting on the outs board from one whose good starts are unpredictable enough that the market prices them better than we do.
How long he goes
Paul is averaging 5.6 innings a start across his last 8 outings, with a high of 7.0 and about 85 pitches a night. He's not going deep, and that caps the strikeout and outs projections no matter how good the matchup looks — you can't strike out hitters you don't face. Expected batters faced is one of the bigger inputs to his score for exactly this reason.
A long gap since his last start
Paul hasn't started in 13 days. That's the single most useful warning on a pitcher's page, and it's the model's weakest spot. A gap that long usually means an injured-list stint, and a first start back is often on a strict pitch limit that no stat line reveals — books frequently don't post an outs line at all in that spot. Our projection is built on his healthy workload, so it will overshoot a shortened rehab start. Read any projection here with that in mind until he's stretched back out.
His best start in the log
Paul's high-water mark was Saturday, July 25, 2026 against CHC: 11 strikeouts over 5.3 innings, 5 earned runs. One start doesn't set a projection — the model works off the blend of his recent work against the specific lineup in front of him — but it does show the ceiling when the matchup lines up.
How the model reads him
Every arm on the slate goes through the same math, Paul included. Opposing lineup, handedness, expected batters faced, park, weather — weighted, combined, and normalized 0–100. We keep the weighting to ourselves and re-tune it weekly on real results. What we don't keep is the record: every projection here is graded against the box score at the line the market offered.
What we'd flag
Three caveats worth carrying. Not every player gets a posted line — book coverage runs to about 87% for confirmed starters, so a blank line is the market's silence, not ours. Lineup changes land late enough to strand a projection published hours earlier. And judging any of this on a single night is meaningless; the model is tuned on hundreds of settled outcomes. For Paul specifically, he's coming off a 13-day gap.