Best MLB earned runs matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Friday, July 17, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by projected earned runs allowed. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 3 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Spencer Miles
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.7%
vs RHB 8.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 12.8 BF Expected batters faced 12.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 15.5% 2.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 16.7% 2.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 15.2% 2.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 11.2% 1.8
5. Andrew Benintendi (L) 12.7% 1.0
6. Kyle Teel (L) 13.5% 1.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L) 13.0% 1.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 14.5% 1.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R) 12.2% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -155 +115
BOV Bovada -150 +110
FAN Fanatics -165 +115
We project 1.5 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Spencer Miles's full player page → 2
Mason Englert
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.8%
vs RHB 10.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 14.8 BF Expected batters faced 14.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 13.4% 2.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 10.7% 2.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.3% 2.0
4. Willson Contreras (R) 11.7% 2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 11.0% 2.0
6. Caleb Durbin (R) 13.2% 1.8
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.5% 1.0
8. Connor Wong (R) 9.2% 1.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 13.2% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -125 -110
DK DraftKings -103 -129
We project 1.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Mason Englert's full player page → 3
Troy Melton
RHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 6.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.3%
vs RHB 7.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 1.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 13.8% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 14.2% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 9.2% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 10.7% 3.0
5. Josh Lowe (L) 11.0% 3.0
6. Jo Adell (R) 9.6% 2.5
7. Vaughn Grissom (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R) 10.6% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 8.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +120 -165
BOV Bovada +130 -170
DK DraftKings +123 -164
We project 1.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Troy Melton's full player page → 4
Cal Quantrill
RHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.4%
vs RHB 9.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 15.6 BF Expected batters faced 15.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 13.3% 2.0
2. Ozzie Albies (L) 15.7% 2.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 15.4% 2.0
4. Michael Harris II (L) 13.6% 2.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 11.9% 2.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 14.2% 2.0
7. Austin Riley (R) 11.0% 1.6
8. Jim Jarvis (L) 9.1% 1.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R) 11.2% 1.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -120 -115
BOV Bovada -135 -105
DK DraftKings -114 -117
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Cal Quantrill's full player page → 5
Bryce Miller
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.8%
vs RHB 9.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Luis Arraez (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Bryce Eldridge (L) 11.0% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 10.8% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 15.4% 2.8
5. Heliot Ramos (R) 11.4% 2.0
6. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 12.3% 2.0
7. Willy Adames (R) 11.5% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 10.7% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 8.6% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -135 +100
BOV Bovada -135 -105
DK DraftKings -135 +102
We project 2.0 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Bryce Miller's full player page → 6
Peter Lambert
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 6.3%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.0 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.0% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 14.4% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 10.8% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 11.2% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 12.7% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 13.1% 3.0
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 12.5% 2.2
7. Colton Cowser (L) 12.2% 2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R) 9.4% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 11.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -118 -115
BOV Bovada -120 -120
DK DraftKings -116 -115
We project 2.0 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Peter Lambert's full player page → 7
Eduardo Rivera
LHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 18.6 BF Expected batters faced 18.6
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 14.3% 2.6
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 12.2% 2.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 15.5% 2.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 11.0% 2.0
5. Cedric Mullins (L) 8.8% 2.0
6. Jonny DeLuca (R) 11.6% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 11.4% 2.0
8. Hunter Feduccia (L) 9.2% 2.0
9. Taylor Walls (R) 9.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Eduardo Rivera's full player page → 8
Griffin Jax
RHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 8.7%
vs RHB 12.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (L) 13.4% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 10.7% 3.0
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 10.3% 2.7
4. Caleb Durbin (R) 13.2% 2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 11.0% 2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R) 10.9% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 11.5% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 8.8% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 13.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Jax's full player page → 9
Jared Jones
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.8%
vs RHB 8.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.4 BF Expected batters faced 19.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.1 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 10.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 11.6% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 11.1% 2.4
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 10.6% 2.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 11.1% 2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 10.5% 2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L) 8.6% 2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 12.1% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -155 +115
BOV Bovada -150 +110
DK DraftKings -147 +110
FAN Fanatics -155 +110
We project 2.1 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Jared Jones's full player page → 10
Cade Cavalli
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 8.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.3 BF Expected batters faced 21.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carlos Cortes (L) 10.6% 3.0
2. Jacob Wilson (R) 10.4% 3.0
3. Tyler Soderstrom (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. Shea Langeliers (R) 10.9% 2.3
5. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 10.4% 2.0
6. Lawrence Butler (L) 11.8% 2.0
7. Donovan Walton (L) 12.9% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 9.5% 2.0
9. Tommy White (R) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -105 -130
BOV Bovada +105 -145
DK DraftKings +100 -133
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Cade Cavalli's full player page → 11
Chris Sale
LHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 7.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.1%
vs RHB 8.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 12.5% 3.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 13.7% 3.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 13.3% 3.0
4. Josh Jung (R) 14.4% 3.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 11.9% 3.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 10.4% 2.3
7. Cam Cauley (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 12.8% 2.0
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 12.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -145 +105
BOV Bovada -150 +110
DK DraftKings -143 +107
FAN Fanatics -150 +105
We project 2.2 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Chris Sale's full player page → 12
Michael King
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 7.3%
vs RHB 11.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.9%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 10.5% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 12.2% 3.0
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 12.8% 3.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 9.9% 3.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 10.8% 3.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 8.6% 3.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 13.0% 2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L) 12.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +100
BOV Bovada -135 -105
DK DraftKings -121 -110
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 2.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Michael King's full player page → 13
Michael McGreevy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 8.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.1%
vs RHB 9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.0 BF Expected batters faced 23.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 10.5% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 14.3% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 13.7% 3.0
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 12.5% 3.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 10.2% 3.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 11.0% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 12.8% 2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R) 10.6% 2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R) 9.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -118 -115
BOV Bovada -120 -120
DK DraftKings -111 -120
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Michael McGreevy's full player page → 14
Logan Henderson
RHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.0% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.8%
vs RHB 10.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 19.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.0 BF Expected batters faced 20.0
From recent starts 6
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 15.3% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 15.0% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (L) 10.8% 2.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 13.3% 2.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 10.8% 2.0
6. Griffin Conine (L) 12.9% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 11.6% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 10.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -160 +115
BOV Bovada -160 +120
DK DraftKings -137 +103
We project 2.3 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Logan Henderson's full player page → 15
Gabriel Hughes
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.8 BF Expected batters faced 20.8
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 13.2% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 12.7% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 11.8% 2.8
4. Spencer Steer (R) 12.7% 2.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 11.5% 2.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 8.9% 2.0
7. TJ Friedl (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 9.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
BOV Bovada +115 -155
DK DraftKings +114 -152
We project 2.3 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Gabriel Hughes's full player page → 16
Anthony Kay
LHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.3%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 11.6% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 15.2% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 11.3% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 10.2% 2.5
5. Alejandro Kirk (R) 11.5% 2.0
6. Daulton Varsho (L) 12.5% 2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (R) 9.7% 2.0
8. Luis Urías (R) 10.3% 2.0
9. Myles Straw (R) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -105 -130
BOV Bovada +105 -145
DK DraftKings -102 -130
We project 2.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Anthony Kay's full player page → 17
Landen Roupp
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 9.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.2%
vs RHB 10.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.5 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 12.3% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 14.9% 3.0
3. Dominic Canzone (L) 12.3% 3.0
4. Cal Raleigh (L) 10.6% 3.0
5. Josh Naylor (L) 10.2% 3.0
6. Cole Young (L) 13.3% 2.3
7. Luke Raley (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Victor Robles (R) 10.6% 2.0
9. Colt Emerson (L) 10.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +110 -155
BOV Bovada +135 -175
DK DraftKings +116 -154
FAN Fanatics +110 -155
We project 2.5 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Landen Roupp's full player page → 18
Jake Bennett
LHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.8% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.8%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.8 BF Expected batters faced 22.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 14.3% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 12.2% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 15.5% 3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 11.0% 3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 11.6% 2.8
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 10.2% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 11.4% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R) 9.7% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 11.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jake Bennett's full player page → 19
Gage Jump⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.2%
vs RHB 10.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.6 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 9.3% 3.0
3. Abimelec Ortiz (L) 11.7% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 10.3% 3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 13.6% 2.5
6. Daylen Lile (L) 10.7% 2.0
7. José Tena (L) 12.1% 2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 12.0% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (R) 11.9% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -150 +110
BOV Bovada -125 -115
DK DraftKings -128 -104
FAN Fanatics -150 +105
We project 2.6 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Gage Jump's full player page → 20
Dean Kremer
RHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.8%
vs RHB 9.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.7 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 14.0% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 15.2% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 11.7% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 11.7% 3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R) 14.0% 2.1
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 13.2% 2.0
7. Cam Smith (R) 11.4% 2.0
8. Lucas Spence (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 11.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +100 -140
BOV Bovada -105 -135
DK DraftKings -106 -125
FAN Fanatics +100 -140
We project 2.7 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Dean Kremer's full player page → 21
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 12.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 13.0%
vs RHB 10.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.4 BF Expected batters faced 22.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 12.9% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 13.5% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 10.8% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 11.9% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 11.5% 2.4
6. Ty France (R) 10.0% 2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L) 11.0% 2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R) 11.7% 2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R) 14.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada -160 +120
DK DraftKings -132 +100
We project 2.8 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Seth Lugo's full player page → 22
Bailey Ober
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.9% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.6%
vs RHB 11.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.5 BF Expected batters faced 23.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 11.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 15.0% 3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R) 11.9% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 10.3% 3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R) 10.8% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 12.4% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 9.9% 2.5
7. Michael Conforto (L) 11.7% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 11.6% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 13.4% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
We project 2.8 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Bailey Ober's full player page → 23
Brady Singer
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.4%
vs RHB 9.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 12.9% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 13.4% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 14.1% 3.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 13.2% 3.0
5. Kyle Karros (R) 14.9% 3.0
6. Willi Castro (L) 11.7% 2.2
7. Troy Johnston (L) 11.9% 2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R) 10.2% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 10.0% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 3.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +105 -145
BOV Bovada +105 -145
DK DraftKings +120 -160
FAN Fanatics +125 -180
We project 2.8 ER vs the 3.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Brady Singer's full player page → 24
Gavin Williams
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.5% Runs / BF vs LHB 9.2%
vs RHB 12.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.8 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 12.8% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 13.5% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 15.8% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 15.2% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 14.2% 2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 13.1% 2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 9.3% 2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 11.7% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 12.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 1.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -165 +125
BOV Bovada -170 +130
DK DraftKings -170 +128
We project 2.8 ER vs the 1.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Gavin Williams's full player page → 25
Gerrit Cole
RHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.1%
vs RHB 8.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.5%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 14.3% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 11.8% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 11.9% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 13.3% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 12.9% 3.0
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 13.9% 2.1
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 11.7% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 12.1% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (L) 14.1% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -135 +100
BOV Bovada -135 -105
DK DraftKings -122 -108
FAN Fanatics -135 -105
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Gerrit Cole's full player page → 26
Colin Rea
RHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.7% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.1%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.1%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 2.9 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 14.2% 3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R) 12.8% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (L) 11.9% 3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L) 14.5% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 11.2% 2.9
6. Brooks Lee (L) 11.7% 2.0
7. Alan Roden (L) 9.2% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 13.6% 2.0
9. Tristan Gray (L) 11.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -140 +100
DK DraftKings -128 -104
FAN Fanatics -140 +100
We project 2.9 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Colin Rea's full player page → 27
Merrill Kelly
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 11.2% Runs / BF vs LHB 12.9%
vs RHB 9.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 16.9% 3.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 13.4% 3.0
3. Alec Burleson (L) 13.9% 3.0
4. Jordan Walker (R) 14.9% 3.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 12.7% 3.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 10.9% 3.0
7. Nathan Church (L) 11.2% 2.8
8. José Fermín (R) 7.9% 2.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L) 7.8% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -125 -110
BOV Bovada -135 -105
DK DraftKings -109 -122
FAN Fanatics -130 -110
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Merrill Kelly's full player page → 28
Reid Detmers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 13.3% Runs / BF vs LHB 11.9%
vs RHB 13.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.3 BF Expected batters faced 23.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.2 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 11.7% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 12.2% 3.0
3. Colt Keith (L) 13.1% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 9.9% 3.0
5. Spencer Torkelson (R) 12.6% 3.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L) 13.0% 2.3
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 14.3% 2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R) 11.8% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 17.2% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +115 -155
BOV Bovada +120 -160
DK DraftKings +109 -145
FAN Fanatics +110 -155
We project 3.2 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Reid Detmers's full player page → 29
Sandy Alcantara
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 10.4% Runs / BF vs LHB 10.5%
vs RHB 10.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.0%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 26.3 BF Expected batters faced 26.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.3 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 13.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 14.2% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 16.0% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 14.8% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 11.0% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 15.4% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 14.5% 3.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 11.9% 3.0
8. Sal Frelick (L) 11.1% 3.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 10.9% 2.3
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under MGM BetMGM -150 +110
BOV Bovada -155 +115
DK DraftKings -135 +102
FAN Fanatics -155 +110
We project 3.3 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Sandy Alcantara's full player page → 30
Roki Sasaki
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher earned runs Rate 14.1% Runs / BF vs LHB 14.3%
vs RHB 12.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.3%
How often he gives up earned runs to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.8 BF Expected batters faced 21.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.4 ER Expected earned runs — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · run-proneness 12.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 15.9% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 15.8% 3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 10.3% 3.0
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 11.8% 2.8
5. Jasson Domínguez (L) 11.4% 2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 13.7% 2.0
7. José Caballero (R) 11.9% 2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 12.3% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 10.7% 2.0
Each hitter's earned runs rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Earned Runs Line · O/U 2.5 we lean Over Book Over Under BOV Bovada +105 -145
DK DraftKings +104 -138
We project 3.4 ER vs the 2.5 line — leaning Over. Display only — not betting advice.
Roki Sasaki's full player page → Best MLB Earned Runs Matchups — Friday, July 17, 2026 Spencer Miles (TOR) is the top earned runs spot on the Friday, July 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER, with Mason Englert (TB) right behind. Every starter is ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Spencer Miles Spencer Miles (TOR) tops the Friday, July 17, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER vs CWS. Run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Mason Englert (TB) (99) — about 1.6 ER vs BOS. Troy Melton (DET) (89) — about 1.8 ER vs LAA. Cal Quantrill (TEX) (77) — about 2.0 ER vs ATL. Bryce Miller (SEA) (75) — about 2.0 ER vs SF. Peter Lambert (HOU) (74) — about 2.0 ER vs BAL. How it played out The top 10 starts averaged 7.0 ER. Every projection is graded against the box score.
How to read the earned runs board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a earned runs count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best earned runs matchup today (Friday, July 17, 2026)? Spencer Miles (TOR) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 1.5 ER against CWS.
What are the best pitcher earned runs props today? The top projected starts on Friday, July 17, 2026: Spencer Miles (~1.5 ER), Mason Englert (~1.6 ER), Troy Melton (~1.8 ER), Cal Quantrill (~2.0 ER), Bryce Miller (~2.0 ER). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the earned runs score calculated? Ranked by projected earned runs allowed — run prevention, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected earned runs count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best earned runs spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the earned runs allowed board is The Earned Runs board projects how many earned runs a starter gives up vs his line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His run-prevention rate vs the lineup's hand. The park. Projected length of outing. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Efficiently priced — transparency board. It's also a core input to our team run model (moneyline + team totals), where the edge actually lives.
How to use it Read it for who's in line for a clean or rough outing; the bettable version is the team-total board it feeds.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
