Best MLB hits allowed matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026 Every starting pitcher on the Saturday, July 18, 2026 slate, scored — ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Tap any card for the full breakdown.
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PROJ Some lineups aren't official yet — 31 starts use an opposing lineup projected from that team's last game. The strikeout projection updates automatically once the official lineup posts, ~2 hours before first pitch.
# Pitcher · Matchup Score
1
Brandon Pfaadt⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs STL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.4% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.9%
vs RHB 24.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 14.6 BF Expected batters faced 14.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. JJ Wetherholt (L) 21.4% 2.0
2. Iván Herrera (R) 22.5% 2.0
3. Jordan Walker (R) 23.3% 2.0
4. Alec Burleson (L) 24.4% 2.0
5. Lars Nootbaar (L) 22.0% 2.0
6. Masyn Winn (R) 22.0% 1.6
7. Nathan Church (L) 20.2% 1.0
8. José Fermín (R) 21.0% 1.0
9. Jimmy Crooks (L) 19.0% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Brandon Pfaadt's full player page → 2
Owen Murphy⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TEX lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 16.6 BF Expected batters faced 16.6
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 3.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Justin Foscue (R) 20.6% 2.0
2. Wyatt Langford (R) 22.3% 2.0
3. Brandon Nimmo (L) 21.4% 2.0
4. Josh Jung (R) 23.2% 2.0
5. Jake Burger (R) 21.5% 2.0
6. Ezequiel Duran (R) 22.3% 2.0
7. Cam Cauley (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Elias Díaz (R) 21.0% 1.6
9. Nicky Lopez (L) 22.2% 1.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Owen Murphy's full player page → 3
Jared Jones
RHP vs CLE lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.6%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.4 BF Expected batters faced 19.4
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Travis Bazzana (L) 21.9% 3.0
2. Brayan Rocchio (L) 23.6% 2.4
3. Chase DeLauter (L) 22.5% 2.0
4. Kyle Manzardo (L) 20.6% 2.0
5. Rhys Hoskins (R) 19.9% 2.0
6. Kahlil Watson (L) 21.9% 2.0
7. Gabriel Arias (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Austin Hedges (R) 20.3% 2.0
9. Steven Kwan (L) 23.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 4.5 we lean Under Book Over Under MGM BetMGM +110 -150
BOV Bovada +130 -170
DK DraftKings +127 -169
FAN Fanatics +110 -155
We project 4.0 H vs the 4.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Jared Jones's full player page → 4
Ian Seymour⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs BOS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 19.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.6 BF Expected batters faced 19.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Anthony Seigler (R) 22.2% 3.0
2. Ceddanne Rafaela (R) 21.7% 2.6
3. Wilyer Abreu (L) 23.6% 2.0
4. Caleb Durbin (R) 21.6% 2.0
5. Masataka Yoshida (L) 22.2% 2.0
6. Romy Gonzalez (R) 25.4% 2.0
7. Jarren Duran (L) 20.6% 2.0
8. Carlos Narváez (R) 22.4% 2.0
9. Tsung-Che Cheng (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ian Seymour's full player page → 5
Emmet Sheehan⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs NYY lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.8%
vs RHB 20.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.5 BF Expected batters faced 20.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.1 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trent Grisham (L) 21.6% 3.0
2. Ben Rice (L) 22.7% 3.0
3. Paul Goldschmidt (R) 21.8% 2.5
4. Cody Bellinger (L) 22.8% 2.0
5. Jasson Domínguez (L) 23.4% 2.0
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. José Caballero (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Ryan McMahon (L) 20.5% 2.0
9. Austin Wells (L) 20.1% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Emmet Sheehan's full player page → 6
Zack Littell⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs ATH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.4%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.8 BF Expected batters faced 19.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jacob Wilson (R) 25.6% 3.0
2. Joshua Kuroda-Grauer (R) 22.5% 2.8
3. Shea Langeliers (R) 21.3% 2.0
4. Jonah Heim (L) 19.2% 2.0
5. Colby Thomas (R) 20.4% 2.0
6. Joey Meneses (R) 21.0% 2.0
7. Lawrence Butler (L) 21.7% 2.0
8. Henry Bolte (R) 21.2% 2.0
9. Alika Williams (R) 21.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Zack Littell's full player page → 7
Griffin Canning⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs KC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.9% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.8%
vs RHB 22.6%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 19.7 BF Expected batters faced 19.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Carter Jensen (L) 20.8% 3.0
2. Bobby Witt Jr. (R) 24.6% 2.7
3. Jac Caglianone (L) 21.7% 2.0
4. Lane Thomas (R) 20.3% 2.0
5. Vinnie Pasquantino (L) 23.6% 2.0
6. Salvador Perez (R) 21.5% 2.0
7. Michael Massey (L) 23.4% 2.0
8. Nick Loftin (R) 21.4% 2.0
9. Isaac Collins (L) 23.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Griffin Canning's full player page → 8
Spencer Arrighetti⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs BAL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.6%
vs RHB 21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Gunnar Henderson (L) 23.2% 3.0
2. Adley Rutschman (L) 21.3% 3.0
3. Taylor Ward (R) 21.2% 3.0
4. Pete Alonso (R) 22.6% 3.0
5. Samuel Basallo (L) 21.6% 2.7
6. Dylan Beavers (L) 21.9% 2.0
7. Colton Cowser (L) 20.5% 2.0
8. Coby Mayo (R) 16.6% 2.0
9. Jackson Holliday (L) 22.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Spencer Arrighetti's full player page → 9
Rhett Lowder⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs COL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.5%
vs RHB 23.4%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.5%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.0 BF Expected batters faced 20.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake McCarthy (L) 24.2% 3.0
2. Mickey Moniak (L) 24.5% 3.0
3. Hunter Goodman (R) 23.6% 2.0
4. TJ Rumfield (L) 25.4% 2.0
5. Kyle Karros (R) 22.6% 2.0
6. Willi Castro (L) 21.6% 2.0
7. Troy Johnston (L) 24.4% 2.0
8. Tyler Freeman (R) 23.1% 2.0
9. Ezequiel Tovar (R) 21.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Rhett Lowder's full player page → 10
Dustin May⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs AZ lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.9%
vs RHB 22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 20.7 BF Expected batters faced 20.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.9% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ketel Marte (L) 22.1% 3.0
2. Geraldo Perdomo (L) 21.6% 3.0
3. Corbin Carroll (L) 20.3% 2.7
4. Gabriel Moreno (R) 25.5% 2.0
5. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (R) 21.6% 2.0
6. Ildemaro Vargas (L) 21.8% 2.0
7. Nolan Arenado (R) 21.8% 2.0
8. Tim Tawa (R) 20.7% 2.0
9. Ryan Waldschmidt (R) 21.2% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Dustin May's full player page → 11
Tarik Skubal⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 20.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 21.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.6 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Zach Neto (R) 24.9% 3.0
2. Mike Trout (R) 21.0% 3.0
3. Nolan Schanuel (L) 22.7% 3.0
4. Jorge Soler (R) 21.5% 3.0
5. Jo Adell (R) 25.4% 2.5
6. Josh Lowe (L) 20.3% 2.0
7. Oswald Peraza (R) 20.5% 2.0
8. Denzer Guzman (R) 20.8% 2.0
9. Logan O'Hoppe (R) 21.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tarik Skubal's full player page → 12
Jesús Luzardo⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs NYM lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.1%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 17.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.7 BF Expected batters faced 22.7
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. A.J. Ewing (L) 22.5% 3.0
2. Juan Soto (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Bo Bichette (R) 22.5% 3.0
4. Francisco Lindor (R) 22.5% 3.0
5. Carson Benge (L) 22.5% 2.7
6. Jorge Polanco (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Jared Young (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Brett Baty (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Francisco Alvarez (R) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Jesús Luzardo's full player page → 13
Matthew Boyd⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.0%
vs RHB 21.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trevor Larnach (L) 21.5% 3.0
2. Ryan Jeffers (R) 23.5% 3.0
3. Josh Bell (R) 22.3% 3.0
4. Kody Clemens (L) 21.1% 3.0
5. Royce Lewis (R) 20.7% 2.5
6. Brooks Lee (R) 23.4% 2.0
7. Alan Roden (L) 21.8% 2.0
8. Luke Keaschall (R) 21.3% 2.0
9. Tristan Gray (L) 23.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Matthew Boyd's full player page → 14
Shane Bieber⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CWS lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.0%
vs RHB 27.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 12.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.1 BF Expected batters faced 22.1
From recent starts 4
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Sam Antonacci (L) 24.0% 3.0
2. Munetaka Murakami (L) 21.6% 3.0
3. Miguel Vargas (R) 21.1% 3.0
4. Colson Montgomery (L) 20.6% 3.0
5. Andrew Benintendi (L) 21.8% 2.1
6. Kyle Teel (L) 22.7% 2.0
7. Braden Montgomery (L) 21.6% 2.0
8. Tristan Peters (L) 27.1% 2.0
9. Chase Meidroth (R) 21.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Bieber's full player page → 15
Sean Manaea⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PHI lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.6 BF Expected batters faced 21.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Trea Turner (R) 22.5% 3.0
2. Kyle Schwarber (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Bryce Harper (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. Brandon Marsh (L) 22.5% 2.6
5. Alec Bohm (R) 22.5% 2.0
6. Bryson Stott (L) 22.5% 2.0
7. J.T. Realmuto (R) 22.5% 2.0
8. Gabriel Rincones Jr. (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Justin Crawford (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Sean Manaea's full player page → 16
Gavin Williams
RHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 18.0%
vs RHB 23.7%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.9 BF Expected batters faced 22.9
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (L) 26.2% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 23.1% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (L) 22.1% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 23.4% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 24.2% 2.9
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 25.5% 2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Jacob Gonzalez (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 18.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Hits Allowed Line · O/U 5.5 we lean Under Book Over Under BOV Bovada +110 -150
DK DraftKings +113 -150
We project 4.8 H vs the 5.5 line — leaning Under. Display only — not betting advice.
Gavin Williams's full player page → 17
Randy Dobnak⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.1%
vs RHB 21.1%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 9.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 2
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.8 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) 23.8% 3.0
2. Jackson Merrill (L) 23.4% 3.0
3. Xander Bogaerts (R) 21.7% 3.0
4. Manny Machado (R) 23.6% 3.0
5. Gavin Sheets (L) 21.1% 2.0
6. Ty France (R) 22.5% 2.0
7. Jake Cronenworth (L) 21.4% 2.0
8. Miguel Andujar (R) 24.1% 2.0
9. Luis Campusano (R) 22.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Randy Dobnak's full player page → 18
Trevor Rogers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs HOU lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 20.6% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.3%
vs RHB 21.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 11.3%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.2 BF Expected batters faced 23.2
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.3% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jeremy Peña (R) 24.2% 3.0
2. Yordan Alvarez (L) 25.1% 3.0
3. Isaac Paredes (R) 22.8% 3.0
4. Christian Walker (R) 21.1% 3.0
5. Jose Altuve (R) 24.1% 3.0
6. LaMonte Wade Jr. (L) 20.8% 2.2
7. Cam Smith (R) 20.4% 2.0
8. Lucas Spence (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Christian Vázquez (R) 19.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Trevor Rogers's full player page → 19
Grayson Rodriguez⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs DET lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.4%
vs RHB 22.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.1%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 21.5 BF Expected batters faced 21.5
From recent starts 7
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 4.9 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.5% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Kevin McGonigle (L) 22.3% 3.0
2. Dillon Dingler (R) 22.3% 3.0
3. Colt Keith (L) 22.9% 3.0
4. Riley Greene (L) 24.6% 2.5
5. Spencer Torkelson (R) 19.8% 2.0
6. Kerry Carpenter (L) 22.0% 2.0
7. Zach McKinstry (L) 22.5% 2.0
8. Matt Vierling (R) 20.7% 2.0
9. James Outman (L) 16.7% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Grayson Rodriguez's full player page → 20
Shane Drohan⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs MIA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.5%
vs RHB 22.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Liam Hicks (L) 20.6% 3.0
2. Otto Lopez (R) 23.1% 3.0
3. Xavier Edwards (R) 23.2% 3.0
4. Kyle Stowers (L) 20.9% 3.0
5. Heriberto Hernández (R) 22.8% 2.5
6. Griffin Conine (L) 22.9% 2.0
7. Jakob Marsee (L) 21.4% 2.0
8. Joe Mack (L) 21.2% 2.0
9. Javier Sanoja (R) 23.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Shane Drohan's full player page → 21
Patrick Sandoval⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs TB lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.1% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.6%
vs RHB 22.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Yandy Díaz (R) 24.5% 3.0
2. Jonathan Aranda (L) 22.5% 3.0
3. Junior Caminero (R) 24.0% 3.0
4. Ryan Vilade (R) 21.9% 3.0
5. Jonny DeLuca (R) 22.5% 2.0
6. Chandler Simpson (L) 23.9% 2.0
7. Ben Williamson (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Taylor Walls (R) 20.5% 2.0
9. Nick Fortes (R) 21.8% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Patrick Sandoval's full player page → 22
Taj Bradley⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CHC lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.2%
vs RHB 21.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 14.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.0 BF Expected batters faced 24.0
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.0 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) 24.1% 3.0
2. Seiya Suzuki (R) 22.1% 3.0
3. Michael Busch (L) 21.0% 3.0
4. Alex Bregman (R) 23.1% 3.0
5. Ian Happ (L) 21.5% 3.0
6. Nico Hoerner (R) 22.2% 3.0
7. Michael Conforto (L) 20.0% 2.0
8. Carson Kelly (R) 21.4% 2.0
9. Dansby Swanson (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Taj Bradley's full player page → 23
Davis Martin⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs TOR lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.7% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.4%
vs RHB 23.2%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.3 BF Expected batters faced 22.3
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.2 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.6% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Ernie Clement (R) 24.6% 3.0
2. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (R) 24.3% 3.0
3. Kazuma Okamoto (R) 21.5% 3.0
4. George Springer (R) 22.7% 3.0
5. Alejandro Kirk (R) 22.6% 2.3
6. Daulton Varsho (L) 20.3% 2.0
7. Brandon Valenzuela (L) 22.7% 2.0
8. Luis Urías (R) 21.9% 2.0
9. Myles Straw (R) 22.3% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Davis Martin's full player page → 24
Logan Allen⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs PIT lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 20.5%
vs RHB 24.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 7.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.0 BF Expected batters faced 22.0
From recent starts 1
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Jake Mangum (R) 24.6% 3.0
2. Brandon Lowe (L) 22.2% 3.0
3. Bryan Reynolds (R) 23.9% 3.0
4. Esmerlyn Valdez (R) 24.6% 3.0
5. Ryan O'Hearn (L) 22.8% 2.0
6. Nick Gonzales (R) 23.8% 2.0
7. Marcell Ozuna (R) 21.0% 2.0
8. Jared Triolo (R) 22.3% 2.0
9. Henry Davis (R) 20.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Allen's full player page → 25
Bryan Woo⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SF lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.2% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.0%
vs RHB 21.5%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.8%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.3 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Heliot Ramos (R) 22.9% 3.0
2. Luis Arraez (L) 26.4% 3.0
3. Casey Schmitt (R) 23.8% 3.0
4. Rafael Devers (L) 22.9% 3.0
5. Jung Hoo Lee (L) 24.1% 3.0
6. Bryce Eldridge (L) 21.0% 2.6
7. Willy Adames (R) 21.9% 2.0
8. Drew Gilbert (L) 22.9% 2.0
9. Drew Cavanaugh (L) 22.5% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Bryan Woo's full player page → 26
MacKenzie Gore⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs ATL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 22.3%
vs RHB 22.9%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.2%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.6 BF Expected batters faced 23.6
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.7% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Drake Baldwin (L) 22.9% 3.0
2. Ozzie Albies (R) 24.1% 3.0
3. Matt Olson (L) 24.0% 3.0
4. Michael Harris II (L) 23.5% 3.0
5. Mauricio Dubón (R) 22.5% 3.0
6. Dominic Smith (L) 20.3% 2.6
7. Austin Riley (R) 22.3% 2.0
8. Jim Jarvis (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Brewer Hicklen (R) 22.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
MacKenzie Gore's full player page → 27
Max Meyer⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs MIL lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 22.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 21.6%
vs RHB 23.3%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 13.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.1 BF Expected batters faced 24.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.4 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.8% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Christian Yelich (L) 21.6% 3.0
2. Jackson Chourio (R) 23.7% 3.0
3. Brice Turang (L) 24.4% 3.0
4. William Contreras (R) 23.2% 3.0
5. Jake Bauers (L) 21.0% 3.0
6. Garrett Mitchell (L) 23.4% 3.0
7. Cooper Pratt (R) 23.9% 2.1
8. Sal Frelick (L) 22.4% 2.0
9. Joey Ortiz (R) 21.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Max Meyer's full player page → 28
Ryan Weathers⚠ Lineup not final
LHP vs LAD lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 23.5% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.2%
vs RHB 22.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 16.0%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 22.5 BF Expected batters faced 22.5
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 23.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Shohei Ohtani (L) 24.7% 3.0
2. Andy Pages (R) 25.0% 3.0
3. Freddie Freeman (L) 22.3% 3.0
4. Mookie Betts (R) 21.9% 3.0
5. Max Muncy (L) 20.9% 2.5
6. Kyle Tucker (L) 23.9% 2.0
7. Teoscar Hernández (R) 22.6% 2.0
8. Dalton Rushing (L) 22.6% 2.0
9. Tommy Edman (R) 23.9% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Ryan Weathers's full player page → 29
Logan Webb⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs SEA lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 24.3% Hits / BF vs LHB 25.4%
vs RHB 22.0%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 15.4%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 24.8 BF Expected batters faced 24.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 21.2% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. J.P. Crawford (L) 21.8% 3.0
2. Randy Arozarena (R) 21.9% 3.0
3. Cal Raleigh (L) 19.6% 3.0
4. Josh Naylor (L) 22.3% 3.0
5. Mitch Garver (R) 18.8% 3.0
6. Cole Young (L) 21.7% 3.0
7. Victor Robles (R) 23.3% 2.8
8. Weston Wilson (R) 20.8% 2.0
9. Buddy Kennedy (R) 20.6% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Logan Webb's full player page → 30
J.T. Ginn⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs WSH lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 21.8% Hits / BF vs LHB 23.8%
vs RHB 19.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 18.6%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.8 BF Expected batters faced 23.8
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.5 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.4% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. James Wood (L) 22.2% 3.0
2. Luis García Jr. (L) 25.4% 3.0
3. Abimelec Ortiz (L) 22.5% 3.0
4. CJ Abrams (L) 22.9% 3.0
5. Dylan Crews (R) 18.8% 3.0
6. Daylen Lile (L) 23.9% 2.8
7. José Tena (L) 23.7% 2.0
8. Jorbit Vivas (L) 19.8% 2.0
9. Keibert Ruiz (L) 22.4% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
J.T. Ginn's full player page → 31
Tomoyuki Sugano⚠ Lineup not final
RHP vs CIN lineup
▾ Pitcher hits allowed Rate 25.0% Hits / BF vs LHB 24.8%
vs RHB 24.8%
K-BB% (command-adj. skill) 10.9%
How often he gives up hits allowed to the batters he faces, by hand.
Workload 23.1 BF Expected batters faced 23.1
From recent starts 8
How deep he tends to go — the count multiplier.
Projection 5.7 H Expected hits allowed — built from how his rate stacks up against each hitter in the lineup, across his projected plate appearances.
Opposing Lineup · hit-proneness 22.1% avg Batter Rate Exp PA 1. Elly De La Cruz (L) 23.4% 3.0
2. Sal Stewart (R) 22.2% 3.0
3. JJ Bleday (L) 21.0% 3.0
4. Spencer Steer (R) 21.6% 3.0
5. Eugenio Suárez (R) 23.2% 3.0
6. Tyler Stephenson (R) 23.1% 2.1
7. TJ Friedl (L) 21.2% 2.0
8. Edwin Arroyo (L) 22.5% 2.0
9. Ke'Bryan Hayes (R) 21.0% 2.0
Each hitter's hits allowed rate vs this pitcher's hand, and the plate appearances he's projected to see.
Tomoyuki Sugano's full player page → Best MLB Hits Allowed Matchups — Saturday, July 18, 2026 Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) is the top hits allowed spot on the Saturday, July 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.5 H, with Owen Murphy (ATL) right behind. Every starter is ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. It's the read DFS and pitcher-prop players make before lock.
Top spot: Brandon Pfaadt Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) tops the Saturday, July 18, 2026 board at 100, projected for about 3.5 H vs STL. His hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes.
The rest of the top of the board Owen Murphy (ATL) (93) — about 3.6 H vs TEX. Jared Jones (PIT) (74) — about 4.0 H vs CLE. Ian Seymour (TB) (71) — about 4.1 H vs BOS. Emmet Sheehan (LAD) (69) — about 4.1 H vs NYY. Zack Littell (WSH) (56) — about 4.4 H vs ATH. How to read the hits allowed board Each starter's score (0–100) ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. We project a hits allowed count for the start and grade it against what actually happened.
Frequently asked questions
Which pitcher has the best hits allowed matchup today (Saturday, July 18, 2026)? Brandon Pfaadt (AZ) — top of the board at 100, projected for about 3.5 H against STL.
What are the best pitcher hits allowed props today? The top projected starts on Saturday, July 18, 2026: Brandon Pfaadt (~3.5 H), Owen Murphy (~3.6 H), Jared Jones (~4.0 H), Ian Seymour (~4.1 H), Emmet Sheehan (~4.1 H). The full board ranks every starter.
How is the hits allowed score calculated? Ranked by the fewest hits they're projected to allow — his hit-suppression, the lineup he faces, and how deep he goes. Scores are set 0–100 across the slate, with a projected hits allowed count alongside, and graded against the box score.
Can I use this for pitcher props or DFS? Yes — the board surfaces the best hits allowed spots and projects a number. Where there's a posted line we show the over/under and which side our projection leans. We show the data and grade it, not picks. What the hits allowed board is The Hits Allowed board projects the contact a starter is likely to surrender. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
His hit-suppression vs this lineup. The park. Projected batters faced. Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here? Graded transparency — the market prices it well. A sharp projection, no posted edge.
How to use it Context on a starter's contact profile; research, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays
