MatchWiz Plays Optimizer
Runs · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

PHI @ CIN Runs matchups · Tuesday, July 7, 2026

PHI
PHI
Philadelphia Phillies
vs
7:10 PM EDT
CIN
Cincinnati Reds
CIN
Great American Ball ParkElevation 535 ftCenter Field 404 ft

PHI PHI Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from PHI's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).

Hits / BF vs LH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.13315 BF
Season.143112 BF
Last 2 Years.097321 BF
wOBA allowed.310
Hard-Hit %36%

Hits / BF vs RH Batters

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 BF
Season.092303 BF
Last 2 Years.101965 BF
wOBA allowed.333
Hard-Hit %32%

Lower hits/BF = the pitcher suppresses hits to that side. wOBA / Hard-Hit % = how hard that side squares him up.

Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.133

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.14321 PA
Season.156128 PA
Last 2 Years.173417 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT2
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC1
Jul 5@ KC0
Jul 6@ KC1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.092303 PA
Last 2 Years.101965 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.303
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.326
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-12

Runs0 in 15 PA
Career Average.200
Plate Appearances15
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 3

Projection

Projected Runs0.548

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Trea Turner's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.124

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.10519 PA
Season.139144 PA
Last 2 Years.139518 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT0
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC0
Jul 5@ KC0
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.119

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.13315 PA
Season.143112 PA
Last 2 Years.097321 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.346
Hard-Hit %38%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-10

Runs0 in 11 PA
Career Average.182
Plate Appearances11
HR · K · BB0 · 4 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.545

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Kyle Schwarber's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 2 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.104

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00024 PA
Season.083145 PA
Last 2 Years.115468 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT0
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC0
Jul 5@ KC0
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.119

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.13315 PA
Season.143112 PA
Last 2 Years.097321 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.319
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-10

Runs0 in 11 PA
Career Average.273
Plate Appearances11
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.506

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryce Harper's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.099

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.00017 PA
Season.047107 PA
Last 2 Years.101307 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT2
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC2
Jul 5@ KC0
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.092303 PA
Last 2 Years.101965 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.305
Hard-Hit %36%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.326
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head4-for-7

Runs0 in 9 PA
Career Average.444
Plate Appearances9
HR · K · BB1 · 0 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.468

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Alec Bohm's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.09122 PA
Season.10992 PA
Last 2 Years.111217 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT2
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC0
Jul 5@ KC0
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.119

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.13315 PA
Season.143112 PA
Last 2 Years.097321 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.319
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head2-for-4

Runs0 in 4 PA
Career Average.500
Plate Appearances4
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.497

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Brandon Marsh's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2.5× / ~1.6×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form↩ 4 games since a hit

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.114

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.11479 PA
Last 2 Years.116242 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 23@ WSH2
Jun 24@ WSH0
Jun 26@ NYM0
Jun 27@ NYM0
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.092303 PA
Last 2 Years.101965 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.317
Hard-Hit %35%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.326
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-7

Runs0 in 9 PA
Career Average.333
Plate Appearances9
HR · K · BB0 · 0 · 1

Projection

Projected Runs0.461

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edmundo Sosa's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral
Recent Form🔥 8-game hitting streak

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.06316 PA
Season.09166 PA
Last 2 Years.086234 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1vs PIT1
Jul 2vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC1
Jul 5@ KC2
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.119

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.13315 PA
Season.143112 PA
Last 2 Years.097321 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.314
Hard-Hit %31%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs LHB

wOBA Allowed.317
Hard-Hit % Allowed35%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head0-for-4

Runs0 in 4 PA
Career Average.000
Plate Appearances4
HR · K · BB0 · 2 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.46

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Bryson Stott's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.101

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.0009 PA
Season.03459 PA
Last 2 Years.078269 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 29vs PIT0
Jun 30vs PIT1
Jul 1vs PIT0
Jul 4@ KC1
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.092303 PA
Last 2 Years.101965 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.302
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.326
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head3-for-11

Runs0 in 11 PA
Career Average.273
Plate Appearances11
HR · K · BB0 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.425

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

J.T. Realmuto's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs LHP.112

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.08312 PA
Season.11380 PA
Last 2 Years.088194 PA

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 25@ WSH1
Jun 26@ NYM1
Jun 28@ NYM0
Jun 30vs PIT1
Jul 6@ KC0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.108

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.11834 PA
Season.092303 PA
Last 2 Years.101965 PA

Opposing Starter · Season18 GS

W–L5–4
ERA3.88
WHIP1.44
IP95.0
H / K / BB92 / 73 / 45

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Quality of Contact vs LHP

wOBA.317
Hard-Hit %34%

How well he's squaring up the ball.

Starter Allows · vs RHB

wOBA Allowed.326
Hard-Hit % Allowed33%

How hard hitters are squaring him up.

Head-to-Head1-for-5

Runs0 in 5 PA
Career Average.200
Plate Appearances5
HR · K · BB1 · 1 · 0

Projection

Projected Runs0.427

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Derek Hill's full player page →

CIN CIN Lineup

Projected lineup — order not announcedEstimated from CIN's last game. Batting order is a key driver, so use discretion — this updates automatically once the official lineup posts (~2h before first pitch).
?
Probable pitcher not announcedMatchups for this lineup are shown neutrally for now and will sharpen automatically once the opposing starter is posted (usually a day or two before first pitch).
Order · HitterMatchup

Context

Expected PAs4.65
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.7×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL0
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.541

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Elly De La Cruz's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.55
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL2
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.53

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Sal Stewart's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.45
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.5×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.097228 PA
Season.1071099 PA
Last 2 Years.1093394 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.51

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

JJ Bleday's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.35
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.3×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.507

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Eugenio Suárez's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.25
vs SP / Bullpen~3× / ~1.2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL0
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL1
Jul 5vs BAL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.495

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Spencer Steer's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4.1
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2.1×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 28@ PIT1
Jun 29@ MIL0
Jul 1@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.476

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Tyler Stephenson's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs4
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~2×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30@ MIL0
Jul 1@ MIL1
Jul 2@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.465

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Noelvi Marte's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.9
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.9×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL1
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 4vs BAL1
Jul 5vs BAL0

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs LHB.107

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.097228 PA
Season.1071099 PA
Last 2 Years.1093394 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.443

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

TJ Friedl's full player page →

Context

Expected PAs3.8
vs SP / Bullpen~2× / ~1.8×
BallparkNeutral
WeatherNeutral

Batter · Runs / PA vs RHP.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Last 5 GamesRuns

Jun 30@ MIL0
Jul 1@ MIL0
Jul 2@ MIL0
Jul 3vs BAL0
Jul 5vs BAL1

Opposing Starter · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.117

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks
Season
Last 2 Years

Opposing Bullpen · Runs allowed / Batter Faced vs RHB.115

WindowRateSample
Last 2 Weeks.131229 PA
Season.1071498 PA
Last 2 Years.1015020 PA

Head-to-Head

No Prior Matchups

Projection

Projected Runs0.442

A rough estimate of runs to expect, based on how players have performed in similar matchups.

Edwin Arroyo's full player page →