Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .164 R/PA against righties this year — and .143 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting lit up by righties lately — .171 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (97) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (89) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a strong bat at .149 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (83) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.421).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (81) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .129 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.171).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (77) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .126 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (76) vs LHP Cionel Pérez: a league-average bat at .117 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) (76) vs RHP Paul Skenes: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .209 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Ozzie Albies (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .190 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays