Best MLB Runs Matchups — Tuesday, July 7, 2026
Top runs spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is scoring at .165 R/PA against righties this year — and .167 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties lately — .130 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .231 in 13 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James Wood (WSH) (90) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (86) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.421).
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) (85) vs RHP Tatsuya Imai: a strong bat at .147 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.208).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (83) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167), due to bounce back.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (78) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .129 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Manny Machado (SD) (78) vs RHP Zac Gallen: a solid bat at .125 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.421).
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) (76) vs LHP Noah Schultz: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .202 against righties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- Anthony Seigler (BOS) — righty bat vs LHP, .188 against lefties this year.
Lineup watch
288 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.