MatchWiz

Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber — today's matchup, what the model projects, and how our calls on him have graded. Top board: home runs at 88.7/100.

Today's top board
88.7
Home Runs · vs STL
Our calls on him · hits
58%
1+ hit in 11/19 top-20 calls
Games graded
123
this season, box-score final
Kyle Schwarber
DHBats LThrows RPhiladelphia Phillies
Home Runs88.7/100proj 0.5#4RBIs87.1/100proj 0.6#2Walks82.7/100proj 0.5#10H+R+RBI77.2/100proj 1.9#11Total Bases77.1/100proj 1.8#8Hits68.7/100proj 1.1#42Runs67.6/100proj 0.5#46Fantasy Points66.7/100proj 7.8#11Singles38.6/100proj 0.6#108Doubles35/100proj 0.2#96Triples6.8/100proj 0#211Stolen Bases6.3/100proj 0.1#148

Today's matchup

Today it's St. Louis Cardinals for Kyle, at home. He shows up on 12 boards — home runs (88.7/100, #4), rbis (87.1/100, #2), walks (82.7/100, #10), h+r+rbi (77.2/100, #11). We've got him at 0.5 on the home runs board. That's one of the stronger spots on the board today. Open any board row for the full breakdown of what's driving it.

He's in a cold stretch

Kyle is 7-for-42 (.167) across his last 10 games, down from .242 on the season. Slumps this size are mostly noise at this sample — 42 at-bats is a fortnight, not a trend — and the model treats it that way, discounting the cold run rather than writing him off. If the matchup underneath is good, he'll still grade well here. That's a feature, and sometimes it's wrong.

What kind of hitter he is

Kyle has 38 home runs and 52 extra-base hits in 458 at-bats this season. That profile is why he grades better on the total-bases and home-run boards than his batting average alone would suggest — those boards reward damage, not just contact. Park and weather matter more for a hitter like him too, and both feed the score.

He's a left-handed bat

Kyle hits from the left side, and that's the first thing the model looks at. Left-handed hitters see right-handed pitching most nights, which is the favourable side — so a lefty bat's baseline is set against righties, and drawing a left-handed starter is a genuine downgrade rather than a rounding error. When you see his score fall on a day he's still in the lineup, an opposing lefty is usually why. Handedness also shapes the park read: pull-side geometry matters more for a left-handed swing than the raw park factor suggests.

Floor and ceiling

Kyle has recorded at least one hit in 74 of 122 games he's batted in — 61% — with 27 multi-hit games among them. That's about average — most regulars land somewhere near it.

Home and away

Kyle is hitting .236 at home (56-for-237) and .249 on the road (55-for-221) across the season. There's not much in it, which is the normal case. Home-road splits get talked about far more than they hold up.

Against St. Louis Cardinals

Kyle is 5-for-21 (.238) against St. Louis Cardinals in our log, over 6 games. Worth knowing, worth not over-reading. 21 at-bats against one club is a tiny sample, and the model treats it as a minor input next to what that pitching staff actually allows to his handedness. Batter-versus-pitcher history is the most quoted number in baseball and one of the least predictive.

His best game in the log

Kyle's biggest night was Thursday, August 13, 2026 at MIN — 2-for-5 with 2 homers, 3 driven in. That's the ceiling, not the expectation. The projection you'll see on a board is closer to his typical game than his best one, which is the whole point of projecting rather than remembering.

How our calls on Kyle have graded

In the 19 games where we ranked Kyle a top-20 hitter matchup, he recorded a hit 11 times — 58%. Middle of the road, which is what most players look like. Every one of those calls was graded against the real box score, misses included.

Where he lands across our boards

Kyle was scored on 12 boards in that matchup, and the spread is the interesting part: home runs graded 88.7/100 while stolen bases came in at 6.3/100. Same player, same game, same opposing arm — different questions. A spread that wide usually means the matchup favours one kind of outcome over another, and it's the clearest argument for reading the board that matches what you actually care about.

How the model reads him

Kyle's score rates the spot in front of him, not the name on the jersey. It weighs his rates against the kind of arm he's facing — handedness matters a lot — set against what that pitcher and his bullpen give up, then adjusts for expected playing time, park, weather, and recent form, normalized 0–100 across the slate. The weighting is proprietary and re-tuned weekly; the grading is public, and that's the half that proves anything.

What we'd flag

Books don't price every player — coverage tops out around 87% even for confirmed starters, so "no line" here usually means no book posted one rather than a gap in our data. Lineups change late, and an afternoon projection can be stale by first pitch. And the model is tuned across hundreds of graded outcomes, so one game tells you nothing about whether it's working.

Recent game log

DateOppABHHRRRBI
Sunday, August 23vs STL40000
Saturday, August 22vs STL32122
Friday, August 21vs STL40000
Wednesday, August 19vs MIA40010
Tuesday, August 18vs MIA51001
Monday, August 17vs MIA41001
Sunday, August 16@ MIN41010
Saturday, August 15@ MIN50000
Thursday, August 13@ MIN52223
Wednesday, August 12@ STL40000
Tuesday, August 11@ STL31000
Monday, August 10@ STL32011

Kyle Schwarber — FAQ

Who is Kyle Schwarber facing today?

Kyle Schwarber is hosting St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday, August 23, 2026. His strongest matchup grades 88.7/100 on our home runs board, ranked #4.

What is Kyle Schwarber's projection today?

We project Kyle for 0.5 on the home runs board. That's the model's number for this specific matchup — the opposing arm, the park, the weather, and his expected playing time all feed it. It's graded against the real box score tonight.

How have MatchWiz's calls on Kyle Schwarber graded?

In the 19 games where our model ranked Kyle a top-20 hitter matchup, he got at least one hit 11 times — 58%. Every call is graded against the real result at the line the market offered, wins and losses both.

How has Kyle Schwarber been hitting lately?

Kyle is 7-for-42 (.167) over his last 10 games, against .242 on the season across 458 at-bats in our log, with 38 home runs. The full game-by-game log is on this page.

Which MatchWiz boards does Kyle Schwarber appear on?

Kyle was scored on 12 boards in his last matchup — home runs, rbis, walks, h+r+rbi, total bases. Each one asks a different question about the same game, so his score can be strong on one and weak on another.

Are Kyle Schwarber's projections betting advice?

No. Every number on this page is a research signal from a statistical model, published alongside its graded record so you can judge it yourself. The model is re-tuned weekly and can be wrong on any given day. Nothing here is a guaranteed outcome. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).

Projections are a research signal from our model, graded against real box-score results — not betting advice. 21+, please play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).